Overall ROI
-8.8%
Beats close
33%
Hit rate
8%
Net units
-25.2
Graded picks
413
Closing-line value
beat the close = sharp
33%
of picks beat the close
median channel: 30% · +2 pts sharper
93 beat
118 flat
74 faded
+0.3%Avg CLV
285Picks priced
+25%Best beat
CLV per pick — distribution
← faded the close±1% flatbeat the close →
Best closes beaten
Dern MLUFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
$2.10 → $1.68 close
+25%
Brahimaj MLUFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy
$2.80 → $2.33 close
+20%
Schnell MLUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
$7.00 → $5.90 close
+19%
CLV = the best price available when the pick was published vs where the line closed (±1% counts as flat). Beating the close consistently is the most durable sharpness signal — it shows up long before ROI and survives the variance ROI doesn't.
By bet type
Moneyline285 picks · 59% hit
-8.8%
KO/TKO57 picks · 53% hit
—
Submission33 picks · 67% hit
—
Decision30 picks · 73% hit
—
Strongest divisions
Middleweight66%
62 picks
Lightweight47%
53 picks
Welterweight64%
52 picks
Bantamweight67%
42 picks
Featherweight51%
39 picks
Recent breakdowns
newest first
UFC BAKU - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
1 week ago · 10 picks · 80% hit
+8.9%
UFC BAKU - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
1 week ago · 11 picks · 73% hit
+23.8%
UFC VEGAS 118 - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
1 month ago · 10 picks · 80% hit
+9.0%
UFC VEGAS 118 - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
1 month ago · 9 picks · 67% hit
-6.0%
UFC VEGAS 117 - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
1 month ago · 7 picks · 57% hit
-5.5%
UFC VEGAS 117 - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
1 month ago · 12 picks · 58% hit
-5.8%
UFC 328 - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
2 months ago · 6 picks · 33% hit
-52.0%
UFC 328 - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
2 months ago · 10 picks · 80% hit
+20.4%
UFC PERTH - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
2 months ago · 7 picks · 57% hit
-14.6%
UFC PERTH - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
2 months ago · 7 picks · 100% hit
+57.1%
UFC VEGAS 116 - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
2 months ago · 5 picks · 20% hit
-44.2%
UFC VEGAS 116 - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
2 months ago · 7 picks · 71% hit
-8.7%
UFC WINNIPEG - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
2 months ago · 7 picks · 100% hit
+58.7%
UFC WINNIPEG - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
2 months ago · 4 picks · 25% hit
-34.3%
UFC 327 - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
2 months ago · 6 picks · 50% hit
-24.2%
UFC 327 - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
2 months ago · 9 picks · 56% hit
-28.8%
UFC VEGAS 115 - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
3 months ago · 4 picks · 75% hit
0.0%
UFC VEGAS 115 - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
3 months ago · 4 picks · 50% hit
-36.3%
UFC SEATTLE - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
3 months ago · 5 picks · 40% hit
-25.8%
UFC SEATTLE - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
3 months ago · 6 picks · 33% hit
-60.8%
UFC LONDON - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
3 months ago · 5 picks · 80% hit
+6.3%
UFC LONDON - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
3 months ago · 7 picks · 71% hit
-5.0%
UFC 326 - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
4 months ago · 4 picks · 50% hit
-29.8%
UFC 326 - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
4 months ago · 7 picks · 29% hit
-59.0%
UFC MEXICO - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
4 months ago · 4 picks · 50% hit
-35.0%
UFC MEXICO - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
4 months ago · 4 picks · 100% hit
+25.5%
UFC HOUSTON - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
4 months ago · 5 picks · 20% hit
-71.2%
UFC HOUSTON - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREKDOWNS
4 months ago · 7 picks · 57% hit
-15.9%
UFC VEGAS 113 - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
5 months ago · 6 picks · 50% hit
-34.5%
UFC VEGAS 113 - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
5 months ago · 6 picks · 83% hit
+20.6%
UFC 325 - MAIN CARD PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
5 months ago · 4 picks · 100% hit
+34.8%
UFC 325 - PRELIMS PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
5 months ago · 6 picks · 67% hit
+1.9%
UFC VEGAS 112 - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
6 months ago · 5 picks · 60% hit
-14.6%
UFC 323 - MAIN EVENT - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
7 months ago · 4 picks · 25% hit
-44.2%
UFC 323 - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
7 months ago · 8 picks · 62% hit
-14.2%
UFC VEGAS 111 - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
8 months ago · 5 picks · 40% hit
-41.6%
UFC VEGAS 111 - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
8 months ago · 6 picks · 83% hit
+15.2%
UFC VEGAS 110 - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
8 months ago · 1 picks · 100% hit
UPCOMING
UFC VEGAS 110 - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
8 months ago · 1 picks · 100% hit
+150.0%
UFC 321 - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
8 months ago · 3 picks · 100% hit
+78.3%
UFC 321 - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
8 months ago · 8 picks · 50% hit
-20.4%
UFC 320 - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
9 months ago · 6 picks · 67% hit
UPCOMING
UFC 320 - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
9 months ago · 10 picks · 60% hit
-1.0%
UFC PERTH - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
9 months ago · 5 picks · 60% hit
UPCOMING
UFC PERTH - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
9 months ago · 9 picks · 67% hit
UPCOMING
UFC PARIS - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
10 months ago · 4 picks · 75% hit
UPCOMING
UFC PARIS - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
10 months ago · 12 picks · 50% hit
UPCOMING
UFC 319 - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
10 months ago · 6 picks · 67% hit
UPCOMING
UFC 319 - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
10 months ago · 5 picks · 40% hit
UPCOMING
UFC 318 - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
11 months ago · 5 picks
UPCOMING
UFC 318 - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
11 months ago · 6 picks · 50% hit
UPCOMING
UFC 318 - EARLY PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
11 months ago · 7 picks · 71% hit
UPCOMING
UFC 317 - MAIN CARD - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
12 months ago · 8 picks · 50% hit
-3.0%
UFC 317 - PRELIMS - PREDICTIONS AND BREAKDOWNS
12 months ago · 7 picks · 71% hit
UPCOMING
🎃 UFC 308 - WINNING BETS , PARLAYS , and PEARLS $$$ 🎃
20 months ago · 12 picks · 50% hit
-34.2%
UFC Saudi Arabia Whittaker vs Aliskerov - Early Predictions - MAIN CARD
24 months ago · 4 picks · 25% hit
UPCOMING
UFC Saudi Arabia Whittaker vs Aliskerov - Early Predictions PRELIMS
24 months ago · 3 picks · 67% hit
+49.0%
UFC FIGHT NIGHT - CANNONIER VS IMAVOV - EARLY PREDICTIONS - MAIN CARD
25 months ago · 6 picks · 67% hit
+10.3%
UFC FIGHT NIGHT - CANNONIER VS IMAVOV - EARLY PREDICTIONS - PRELIMS
25 months ago · 10 picks · 50% hit
-20.2%
UFC 302 - Makhachev VS Poirier EARLY PREDICTIONS - MAIN CARD
25 months ago · 8 picks · 50% hit
-100.0%