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Jr. vs SmithMain Card · Light Heavyweight
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Jousset vs KenanPreliminary Card · Welterweight
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Hyun-sung vs RossPreliminary Card · Flyweight
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Garcia vs CostaPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Alencar vs SantosPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
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Yadong vs GutiérrezMain Card · Bantamweight
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Jr. vs SmithMain Card · Light Heavyweight
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Haqparast vs MullarkeyMain Card · Lightweight
TE
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Elliott vs MudaerjiMain Card · Bantamweight
AM
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Muniz vs Jun-yongMain Card · Middleweight
KJ
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Jousset vs KenanPreliminary Card · Welterweight
PH
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Hyun-sung vs RossPreliminary Card · Flyweight
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Garcia vs CostaPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Santos vs EggerPreliminary Card · Catchweight
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Taira vs HernandezPreliminary Card · Flyweight
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Alencar vs SantosPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Garcia v Costa
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Garcia 19-5
VS
26-7 Costa
6'0"
height
5'10"
145 lb
weight
145 lb
75"
reach
71"
34
age
29
Southpaw
stance
Southpaw
5.0
strikes landed / min
3.5
56%
striking accuracy
46%
2.3
strikes absorbed / min
2.3
46%
striking defence
58%
1.2
takedowns / 15 min
2.5
40%
takedown accuracy
35%
88%
takedown defence
52%
0.6
submissions / 15 min
1.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TD
The Rambling Dad picks Steve Garcia VALUE
“I'm going to go gcia as well for my underdog”
The Rambling Dad picks Steve Garcia VALUE
“I'm going to go gcia as well for my underdog”
TD
The Rambling Dad picks Melquizael Costa
“I'm a pick Coster”
The Rambling Dad picks Melquizael Costa
“I'm a pick Coster”
KI
KingofCrackdown5095 picks Melquizael Costa
“in this one I got meazel Melquizael Costa be a decision”
KingofCrackdown5095 picks Melquizael Costa
“in this one I got meazel Melquizael Costa be a decision”
WP
We Want Picks picks Melquizael Costa
“I'm gonna go Mel Costa here”
We Want Picks picks Melquizael Costa
“I'm gonna go Mel Costa here”
IP
It's Time - UFC Picks picks Steve Garcia VALUE
“I am still on Steve Garcia that will not change I do think he has I think he's the better fighter in this fight”
It's Time - UFC Picks picks Steve Garcia VALUE
“I am still on Steve Garcia that will not change I do think he has I think he's the better fighter in this fight”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Melquizael Costa VALUE
“I like Melquizael Costa for sure uh 9k ... I think Melquizael Costa lands a big shot here and potentially even finishes him in the first round”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Melquizael Costa VALUE
“I like Melquizael Costa for sure uh 9k ... I think Melquizael Costa lands a big shot here and potentially even finishes him in the first round”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Steve Garcia
“Steve Steve Garcia has like five knockdowns for and like five knockdowns against in the UFC”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Steve Garcia
“Steve Steve Garcia has like five knockdowns for and like five knockdowns against in the UFC”
UP
UFC Bro Picks picks Melquizael Costa VALUE
“I like Melquizael Costa a lot here guys”
UFC Bro Picks picks Melquizael Costa VALUE
“I like Melquizael Costa a lot here guys”
KR
Kasper Reacts picks Steve Garcia
“I reckon Steve Garcia is GNA win this”
Kasper Reacts picks Steve Garcia
“I reckon Steve Garcia is GNA win this”
KR
Kasper Reacts picks Melquizael Costa
“I'm going to go with Khalil Rountree Jr. to win this one”
Kasper Reacts picks Melquizael Costa
“I'm going to go with Khalil Rountree Jr. to win this one”
CM
CHOL MMA picks Melquizael Costa
“we're going with Mel Costa here”
CHOL MMA picks Melquizael Costa
“we're going with Mel Costa here”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Garcia19-5
L
Lopes
Jun '26
W
Onama
Nov '25
W
Kattar
Jul '25
W
Nelson
Sep '24
W
Seung-woo
Jul '24
Costa26-7
L
Allen
May '26
W
Ige
Feb '26
W
Charrière
Dec '25
W
Erosa
May '25
W
Rodriguez
Mar '25