MMA Prophecy
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UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz
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MV DC Vera vs CruzMain Card · Bantamweight NL DO Landwehr vs OnamaMain Card · Featherweight YJ IL Jauregui vs LucindoMain Card · Women'S Strawweight AM DC Murzakanov vs ClarkMain Card · Light Heavyweight PC AL Cachoeira vs LipskiMain Card · Women'S Bantamweight GM BS Meerschaert vs SilvaMain Card · Middleweight AH LG Hill vs GodinezPreliminary Card · Catchweight MB ŁB Buday vs BrzeskiPreliminary Card · Heavyweight NN CC Nunes vs CalvilloPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight GB CO Benítez vs OntiverosPreliminary Card · Lightweight TN OO Nam vs OsbournePreliminary Card · Flyweight JQ JW Quinlan vs WittPreliminary Card · Catchweight DB YZ Blackshear vs ZalalPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Vera v Cruz Bantamweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus12 picks · conf 32/99
Vera 7
5 Cruz
HMUDWD pick Vera
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Vera 23-11-1 VS 24-4 Cruz
5'8" height 5'8"
136 lb weight 135 lb
70" reach 68"
33 age 41
Switch stance Orthodox
4.9 strikes landed / min 3.9
46% striking accuracy 33%
3.3 strikes absorbed / min 2.6
52% striking defence 70%
3.0 takedowns / 15 min 2.8
69% takedown accuracy 42%
66% takedown defence 83%
1.7 submissions / 15 min 0.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
ES etoft21 sports picks Marlon Vera VALUE $1.44
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Marlon Vera “i'm riding Jason Witth o nominal win” $1.33
WP We Want Picks picks Dominick Cruz VALUE “i think dominic cruz wins this fight” $78.00
KU Kunath picks Dominick Cruz “we'll grab Marlon Vera sitting at 8 500 and then we're gonna come down here and grab the other side of the matchup with Dominick Cruz”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Marlon Vera VALUE “i will lean towards Marlon Vera eventually getting dominic cruz out there”
TW Tim Welch picks Dominick Cruz “i think Dominick Cruz going to try and wrestle him right that's what frankie did he was taking Marlon Vera down”
TW Tim Welch picks Marlon Vera “Marlon Vera got a lot of confidence going into the fight he's younger he's probably his body's probably a little bit more healthy and durable”
1C 101MMA Clinic picks Dominick Cruz “i'm going with Dominick Cruz on this one”
1C 101MMA Clinic picks Dominick Cruz VALUE “I'm going with Dominick Cruz on this one”
SH Sherdog.com picks Marlon Vera VALUE “i'm going for uh guryamuchi to win a plus 160” $2.60
SH Sherdog.com picks Dominick Cruz “i don't know who will win between dominic Dominick Cruz and Marlon Vera”
HB Half The Battle picks Marlon Vera VALUE “i'm taking marlo and vera man” $1.49
Recent form last five, most recent first
Vera23-11-1
L Martínez Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Zahabi Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Figueiredo Decision · R3 Aug '24
L O'Malley Decision · R5 Mar '24
W Munhoz Decision · R3 Aug '23
Cruz24-4
L Vera KO/TKO · R4 Aug '22
W Munhoz Decision · R3 Dec '21
W Kenney Decision · R3 Mar '21
L Cejudo KO/TKO · R2 May '20
L Garbrandt Decision · R5 Dec '16