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Matthews vs FialhoMain Card · Welterweight
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GT
Procházka vs TeixeiraMain Card · Light Heavyweight
VS
TS
Shevchenko vs SantosMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
ZW
JJ
Weili vs JędrzejczykMain Card · Women'S Strawweight
JM
AF
Matthews vs FialhoMain Card · Welterweight
JM
RE
Maddalena vs EmeevMain Card · Welterweight
JC
SC
Culibao vs ChoiPreliminary Card · Featherweight
HM
SG
Maheshate vs GarciaPreliminary Card · Lightweight
BA
JM
Allen vs MalkounPreliminary Card · Middleweight
KK
DB
Kyung-ho vs BatgerelPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
SJ
NL
Juárez vs LiangEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
JE
RP
Edwards vs PascualEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Featherweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Matthews v Fialho
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Matthews 22-8
VS
16-8 Fialho
5'11"
height
—
170 lb
weight
—
73"
reach
—
31
age
32
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
5.9
strikes landed / min
3.3
41%
striking accuracy
41%
2.6
strikes absorbed / min
6.3
47%
striking defence
45%
2.2
takedowns / 15 min
0.2
40%
takedown accuracy
100%
50%
takedown defence
66%
1.8
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
DS
Dynes Sports picks Jake Matthews VALUE
“I'm taking Jake Matthews”
Dynes Sports picks Jake Matthews VALUE
“I'm taking Jake Matthews”
WP
We Want Picks picks Jake Matthews VALUE
“i do think fiallo wins this fight”
We Want Picks picks Jake Matthews VALUE
“i do think fiallo wins this fight”
SH
Sherdog.com picks André Fialho VALUE
“i'm going for André Fialho André Fialho just to win straight up at minus one four five”
$1.75
Sherdog.com picks André Fialho VALUE
“i'm going for André Fialho André Fialho just to win straight up at minus one four five”
$1.75
MP
MMA Prophecy picks André Fialho VALUE
“i'm going with andre André Fialho to get a win”
MMA Prophecy picks André Fialho VALUE
“i'm going with andre André Fialho to get a win”
WP
We Want Picks picks André Fialho VALUE
“so manel cop is my pick”
We Want Picks picks André Fialho VALUE
“so manel cop is my pick”
WP
We Want Picks picks André Fialho
“i do think andre fialo wins”
We Want Picks picks André Fialho
“i do think andre fialo wins”
SD
Santino DeFranco picks Jake Matthews VALUE
“i think i like fiojo here”
Santino DeFranco picks Jake Matthews VALUE
“i think i like fiojo here”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Jake Matthews VALUE
“i think he'll be somewhat popular though i'm kind of worried about the upside of matthews but i think matthew's gonna could win the fight at 7 700”
$78.00
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Jake Matthews VALUE
“i think he'll be somewhat popular though i'm kind of worried about the upside of matthews but i think matthew's gonna could win the fight at 7 700”
$78.00
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks André Fialho
“i think that jake matthews should survive that first round take over as the fight goes on and win the decision”
$1.01
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks André Fialho
“i think that jake matthews should survive that first round take over as the fight goes on and win the decision”
$1.01
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Jake Matthews VALUE
“i think he's gonna grapple André Fialho that's gotta be my prediction on this one guys i know André Fialho can knock out jake matthews i know he can do that you know it's really for Jake Matthews to say”
$2.30
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Jake Matthews VALUE
“i think he's gonna grapple André Fialho that's gotta be my prediction on this one guys i know André Fialho can knock out jake matthews i know he can do that you know it's really for Jake Matthews to say”
$2.30
WM
Walk The Line MMA picks André Fialho
“i'm gonna pick andre fiola to win this fight i think that he'll get the better of the striking”
$1.65
Walk The Line MMA picks André Fialho
“i'm gonna pick andre fiola to win this fight i think that he'll get the better of the striking”
$1.65
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Jake Matthews VALUE
“give me jake matthews for the win give me jake matthews to survive the early storm not getting knocked out and and get that decision to win”
$2.17
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Jake Matthews VALUE
“give me jake matthews for the win give me jake matthews to survive the early storm not getting knocked out and and get that decision to win”
$2.17
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Matthews22-8
W
Harris
May '26
L
Magny
Sep '25
W
Njokuani
Jul '25
W
Prado
Feb '25
W
Rowe
Jun '24
Fialho16-8
L
Means
Sep '23
L
Buckley
May '23
L
Salikhov
Nov '22
L
Matthews
Jun '22
W
VanCamp
May '22