UFC DraftKings Picks | UFC Noche Grasso vs Shevchenko 2 Preview | UFC DFS Strategy

“I really do favor chefchenko to end up winning probably my biggest reservation about betting shevchenko on the money line is just the fact that she's now 35 years old and that's a little bit of a concern she also has said a couple of fights as of late that have been more competitive than some of her earlier fights in the division like the tallest Santos fight that was one that I think you arguably could have said Santos ended up winning so I'm not gonna go out and bet chefchenko on the money line but for EVENT_DETAILS purposes she's gonna be my most rostered fighter I'm gonna be really heavy on Valentina”

“I'll take Kevin Holland and DFS for the leverage as my preferred tournament option the next fight here we have Raul rosehaus Junior taking on Terence Mitchell and listen it's Mexican Independence Day what they're trying to do here is they're trying to get Raul roseas the most favorable matchup possible they put him in a prime spot on the card third to last fight on the entire night going up against Terence Mitchell who just shows have deficiencies in the defensive grappling against Cameron Simon so in that fight Simon goes two of two on takedown attempts ends up holding a minute 37 uh seconds of control time and then is able to get a finish via ground and pound over Terrence Mitchell something else too about Mitchell in that fight he looked pretty decent in the early going but his cardio lasted maybe 60 seconds and then he had totally shot his Wad and nothing left in the tank so as far as Raul Rosas Jr. goes I expect him to run through Terence Mitchell once Mitchell starts to fatigue a little bit could be competitive for the first minute or two and then after we see Mitchell start to drop off I think Raul Rosas Jr. lands takedowns it will eventually probably get to Mitchell out of there with a submission late first round maybe early second round so picking Raul Rosas Jr. to win”

“picking Raul Rosas Jr. to win one thing that is uh definitely a little bit concerning for classic contests ninety six hundred dollar price tag for Raul Rosas Jr. that's a really steep price to pay and on a card where there is a ton of massive favorites if you're looking at just the betting lines for this card we've got you know shivchenko is a minus 170 ish favorite in the main event you've got jacked Allen matalana who's like minus 150 in the co-main beyond that every single fight other than the uh also the Tracy courts has Jasmine Jazz at the vicious that's close to a pick em every other fight has somebody's like north of a minus 200 favorite the point being it's going to be hard to comfortably spend up for a lot of these expensive options I think a lot of my lineups are going to be built more so in like the mid to high upper end range so Russ has a great play like I really like him for rainmakers purposes but I don't know that I'm going to be able to get to him as much as the field and classic contest where he's projected for 45 ownership right now it's just hard to find the salary savings”

“Roman Kopylov against Josh Fremd we have all these massive favorites on the card and you know some of them were going to have to pick to be underway to the field too one of them for me is going to be Roman copylov who is projected for 33 ownership right now and the main reason being for me on copylob is that he's kind of a slow starter he hits very hard he does a lot of damage early but we have seen a lot of his first rounds we're just not a lot happened so look at the fight against Claudio Rivera last time out he does get the second round finish but look at the strike numbers first round he lands 30 significant strikes actually gets outstruck numerically 31-30 in that fight gets a finish in the second round but still it's not like a massive draftking score he put up you know 60 total strikes so that's 12 fantasy points so like you got about 90 fantasy points out of copy love he's typically not looking to wrestle and grapple and in this fight here against Josh fremd where I think friend is probably going to get hurt on the feet but if copy love doesn't get him out of there in the first round he's just dead for the optimal lineup when you consider all these other payoff options that we have on the Slate so copy lab north of 9k he's somebody I'm going to be undercutting the field to not because I don't pick him to win or anything like that but there's just so many massive favorites and I'm prioritizing other Fighters before getting to copylob like I'd rather play loopy godinez for instance at a lower projected ownership than copylob and I think that's one way that we could look to Denver educate lineups I'll be underway to the field on copy love”

“I pick charez to win because he's been somebody who's looked better during the time we've seen him in the UFC I know that he lost his last fight against tetsuro Tyra but I kind of thought it was a good looking Lawson like it was a loss where his stock went up he's able to drop Tyra the issue he had was just super low fight IQ he had Tyra hurt he was winning the Striking but he was engaging to some of these grappling situations that were just not the most favorable path for him to win that fight and tire was something like a minus 700 minus 600 favor in that bout and if they were to run it back after what we saw in the first fight like what Tyra's gonna be like minus 200 or something like that so I thought chariz had a pretty good account of himself in that fight”

“you have to pick Charlie Campbell to win just based on the fact that Alex rice has been so inactive but I think it's worthwhile to take Underdog shots on Alex Reyes just based on the fact that it's such an unknown and we don't know what else to do on the low end on this Lake confidently come out the fact that Alex rice is projected for seven percent ownership in our ownership projections right now so Campbell I love him for rainmakers purposes great Target we don't have to worry at all about salary for classic EVENT_DETAILS contest like yeah I'm picking Charlie Campbell to win but still he's 9 300 he's correct for 43 ownership I'm going to be getting to him but I'm probably gonna be underway to the 43 Mark and I'll take some shots on Alex Reyes just because of the unknown and the fact that he's seven percent owned if he wins I expect him to be optimal and I think he wins more often than say the seven percent uh ownership he's expected for”

“I think Padilla ends up finishing him there so uh good fights Target on both sides as far as the current expected ownership we have Padilla projected for 37 ownership and then Kyle Nelson on the other side projected for 18.5 percent ownership at the at the moment fight that I think makes sense to be a little bit different to pay up to be contrarian loopy godinez taking on a lease read this is also the uh one fight that I've bet on so far for the card I have loopy plus 340 to win by submission I bet that over on FanDuel that was the best price I was able to find at the time that I was placing that bet and if you look at Loopy's numbers she lands 3.43 takedowns per 15 minutes she's proven to be a capable wrestler and Grappler but here's what happens in a lot of her fights if she does not land takedowns immediately with early success she gets kind of disheartened and will give up on her wrestling and just kind of stand and trade and keep the fight on the feet and she's a capable Striker as well but in this matchup against Elise Elise Reed is no take down defense she has no ground game so I think we could see this fight look kind of like the Ariana Connor Lucy fiber loopy lands eight takedowns in that fight fight against Luma Luke Umi somebody else who by the way boomi was able to dominate Elise Reed in the wrestling and grappling which is what loopy did to lumo Luke boomi so with that in mind loopy godine has I think that we should see her find wrestling rappling success against Elise Reed on paper at least read as a 50 takedown defense if you look at her last fight that I had mentioned or actually two fights ago now against Aloma Luke boomi Luke boomi lands two takedowns ends up submitting her and like I said Guardian is better wrestler better Grappler than Luke boomi so I think we should see her land takedowns here against Elise Reed and I'm picking her to win by submission plus 340 I think it's pretty favorable odds”