UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · breakdown
Picks, timestamped
entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
LC
Luana Carolina
v Lucie Pudilová
MONEYLINE
WON
Luana Carolina
v Lucie Pudilová
MONEYLINE
WON
“the model does give Luana a 58% chance to win which is plus EV against the book odds”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.95
→
close$1.95
entry: SportsBet · best in any region at publish
TO
Trey Ogden
v Loik Radzhabov
PROP · KO/TKO
LOST
Trey Ogden
v Loik Radzhabov
PROP · KO/TKO
LOST
“we are showing the smallest bit of value on radov and maybe we'll even see him deliver Ogden's first KO loss”
Moneyline since pick
CLV +2%
◆ entry$2.04
→
close$2.00
Ogden’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
CG
Cody Gibson
v Brian Kelleher
MONEYLINE
WON
Cody Gibson
v Brian Kelleher
MONEYLINE
WON
“the model agrees but without much conviction”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.53
→
close$1.53
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish
BS
Bruno Gustavo da Silva
v Cody Durden
MONEYLINE
WON
Bruno Gustavo da Silva
v Cody Durden
MONEYLINE
WON
“the model likes dired in here more than the books do which offers us good perceived value”
Line since pick
—
no market data captured for this fight
AL
Amanda Lemos
v Virna Jandiroba
MONEYLINE
LOST
Amanda Lemos
v Virna Jandiroba
MONEYLINE
LOST
“the predictive model thinks she can probably avoid the submission again and is giving her a 52% chance of Victory as a slight Underdog at the books”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.16
→
close$2.15
entry: Bally Bet · best in any region at publish
CD
Choi Doo-ho
v Bill Algeo
MONEYLINE
WON
—
“the model only has Choy with a 50.3% chance to win”
Line since pick
—
no market data captured for this fight
KK
Kaynan Kruschewsky
v Kurt Holobaugh
MONEYLINE
LOST
—
Kaynan Kruschewsky
v Kurt Holobaugh
MONEYLINE
LOST
—
“both favor Kanan in this matchup with the model being much more bullish”
Line since pick
CLV +2%
◆ entry$1.80
→
close$1.77
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish