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UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · breakdown

UFC Fight Night Tuivasa vs Tybura Picks and Best Bets | P4P PICKS PRESENTED BY BET99

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28 months ago 0W–3L · -3.0u 3/4 graded
Picks, timestamped entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
TT Tai Tuivasa v Marcin Tybura PROP · KO/TKO LOST
“yeah I'm taking two ofasa to win by knockout uh you know if Marcin Tybura can get his grappling going he should be able to grind out a victory uh but you know he has a takedown percentage of just 33% so he isn't OB uh like you know isn't able to implement that wrestling a lot of the time uh sometimes he struggles to get guys down when he does get them down he struggles to move around those guys in the mat he doesn't really hunt for submissions uh he doesn't really get many finishes either only two finishes in his last nine wins so if he's just lying on top of two evasa he's not necessarily going to win this fight and the longer this fight goes the more striking exchanges you're going to see and I think Marcin Tybura is GNA get on the bad end of any of those striking exchanges uh you know I don't see him standing up long against a power puncher like Tui Basa a guy who has scary power in his hands pretty good chin H surprising quickness for a man of his size as well and the other thing is Ty also really likes to use the clinch and that's another range where tuasa is extremely dangerous with his knees and elbows uh now Ty doesn't have you know the footwork reach or kicking ability uh to work at distance and I think tuasa has the Striking Advantage at pretty much every other range so as long as Tai Tuivasa is able to avoid those uh wrestling exchanges I think he's going to be able to get win this one and uh you know like you said these guys have Str strugg against the upper echon of Fighters uh tuas is on a three-fight losing streak but those are against some high-end guys and he has struggled against those more technical heavyweights the guys that can avoid his power but I don't think uh the flato footed Ty can do that he's been caught by guys before he's coming off first round knockout lost to Tom aspal he's also been knocked out cold by Augusta Sakai sham abdraimov Derrick Lewis so I like Tai Tuivasa to win here I like him to win by knockout plus 100”
Moneyline since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.91 close$1.91
Tuivasa’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted · analyst stated $2.00
BB Bryan Battle v Ange Loosa MONEYLINE VALUE
“I'm just taking battle taking him on the money line here uh you're getting that at about minus 170 at this point in the week uh you look at Battle this is a guy that won off a few years ago uh he's nine- one in his last 10 fights 5- one in the UFC uh two wins by first round knockout two wins by submission so we can kind of get it done wherever the fight goes uh Ange Loosa is coming up back-to-back decision wins but he's still just four and three in his last seven fights all those fights have gone the distance um both these guys do get rocked in the standup but battle is bigger he's more Dynamic and he has better finishing instincts so I like battle to come on top here I do think Ange Loosa has an exciting fight a guy that uh you know definitely can carve out a nice career in the UFC but he's a guy that I don't think is ever going to be uh you know anywhere near the rankings and I think battle is a guy that can definitely be a fringe top 15 guy so it g be battle on the money line a pretty simple bet but I'll take him there at minus 170”
Line since pick CLV +4%
◆ entry$1.63 now$1.57
entry: TAB · best in any region at publish
JN Josiane Nunes v Chelsea Chandler MONEYLINE LOST
“we have a women's bantamweight fight Josiane Nunes I think a good number on her minus 135 she's taking on Chelsea Chandler so noones 10 and0 in her career she is aggressive she is a very high volume Striker seven career koos and she hasn't lost since 20 1 and I don't think Chandler has a lot to offer in terms of countering uh striking defense or even wrestling in this one uh just 42% striking defense for Chandler uh she looked pretty sloppy on her feet last time out noon lands an incredible 7.22 significant strikes per minute in the UFC so I think just think she's going to be able to outclass her on the feet and uh have some periods to turn the fight where I think she's going to have an opportunity to light her up so I think minus 135 pretty good number on her there over at bet 99”
Line since pick CLV +1%
◆ entry$1.75 close$1.73
entry: PointsBet (US) · best in any region at publish
JF Jafel Filho v Ode' Osbourne PROP · KO/TKO LOST
“so I like fio to win this one inside the distance uh we don't have odds on that right now over at bet 99 but it's probably going to be close to uh plus 100 right around that range and anything in that range I'd definitely jump on yeah Ode' Osbourne not making us Osborne's look too good is he um okay so EVENT_DETAILS I was there in Miami it was an absolute blast that biggest pop of the night Donald Trump not to any of the fighters not to Dustin porier when he got that incredible knockout what an incredible frantic fight all gas no breaks that was incredible sha Ali a great performance by him it was great to see p Yan B bounce back JDM Gilbert Burns uh very impressive High action you know absolutely lived up to the hype so let's play a little Matchmaker here roow I'm going to throw some options at you uh you can let me know if you agree disagree or what fight you would make so for the main event in co- Main Event winners uh Dustin porier and of of course Sean Ali I think it's pretty cut and dry what's gonna happen uh I know Omi kind of called out topuria it's too early for that somewhere down the road hopefully we do get to see that but you got to defend your titles within your divisions here guys so om Ali versus morab 100% the fight to make uh and Islam he's got to start defending his title against some guys who are in division not vinoski so the Dustin porier fight makes a lot of sense H porier said June would work for him as well so are you in agreement that those are the next two fights we're going to see for those winners on Saturday night yeah I mean I I think so but just to play Devil's Advocate I will say that uh like you said mean tapira Ali would be a really fun fight I think a lot of fans would love that fight would get a lot of attention a lot of pay-per-view buys and here's the thing I don't think om Ali beats morab and if he loses to morab all of a sudden that's not a title fight anymore so you you never know Dana White might want to make sure om Ali toia happens before om Ali loses that belt uh as far as porier goes uh yeah I mean I I think he's probably gonna end up facing uh uh Islam but at the same time you know gatei kind of deserves it I really wish like you know this whole Gat G hallay uh you know BMF title I really wish that wasn't happening both those guys should get their the next title fights instead they're going to beat the hell out of each other and they're not going to be able to you know take get the next title shots that they deserve so yeah I mean I think you're right with those calls but I kind of could see it going the other way okay next up uh P yon uh you know I've talked about losing quite a bit of money some bad beats on him over the years but after a bit of a slow start he was able to get together in rounds two and three picked up the win there on the opening fight on the main card uh so who do we want to see him fight next I do want to see him uh get a rematch against sha Ali but you know he's a couple wins away from a title shot to be completely fair so I think the timing would work out perfectly for him to fight the winner of Davison figuro and Cody garbrandt who fight at EVENT_DETAILS uh most people will assume at davidon Figaro I think he's a favorite in the minus 300 range but I think a fight against the winner of that fight at EVENT_DETAILS would you agree with that yeah I mean this is kind of a weird Division and after the guys that are really at the top there's pretty big drop off and uh you know I think Yan has established himself this is a guy you know at the top of the division or you know should be like right there up at the top with those other Elite guys but he's pretty much fought all of those guys already uh the only other name that I would throw out there is Cheito Vera I think Marlin Vera Christian Rodriguez would be you know a fun little fight uh you know i' definitely be betting that fight to go the distance but uh yeah you know we know that Vera has a hell of a chin uh but I I do think we' get to see p Yan kind of a go up against a guy that has some uh physical traits that he hasn't always faed the Octagon before okay next up uh so Jack Dela Melina it turns out he broke his arm in that fight I think earlier in the fight too so makes his his victory even that much more impressive uh so he's probably another win away from a title shot here but if he's not out for an extended period of time he called out uh shabat rahmanov at the conclusion of that fight I think that one's pretty cut and dry too you know if if he's ready to fight uh sometime by the end of the year you make that fight right absolutely I think uh that would be one of the most exciting uh title eliminators out there uh you know you could have the uh you know Leon Edwards do his blow muhamed thing I mean no one's really that excited for that rematch anyway uh but uh the next fight uh you know hopefully Leon Edwards taking on either r manov or JDM I think that would be a really exciting one and yeah those two guys are just you know upand comers really skilled and uh rakman manov is is a guy that I think uh you know he might not speak much English uh but uh he's got a lot of star power I think I think you could really see uh his name rise so uh should be a should be a banger if those two guys get it on the oon okay so one of the biggest losers of the night uh was of course benoa Deni didn't quite live up to the hype and he didn't live up to those odds you know minus 220 favorite uh was baffling to a lot of people a lot of people did buy into that but uh you know he still comes out of that loss with uh I don't think anyone's going to want to miss his next fight by any means he can throw him into a a comain event on a pay-per-view or headline a fight night card so I think uh he fights the loser of Charles Oliva and serian or Raphael PIV you think that makes sense yeah I think I think all those matchups make sense I mean uh BSD is a guy that I mean uh like you said he's still very talented I don't think the loss makes him lose a whole lot of uh you know a whole lot of uh cache in that division but he's also a guy that hasn't really fought a lot of those guys in the top 10 so I think there's really a lot of matchups you could make with him with those guys there that would be a lot of fun I mean uh Dar is a name that we haven't really heard much of either he's still he's still lurking around there as well so lots of really I think fun matchups that uh sand Den I think could have in the division uh you know if Chelsea Chandler ever gets past his Conor McGregor fight maybe we see him take on Chandler as well but that would be fun okay um there's a few more guys we can discuss but I want to ask you about something else Combat Sports related uh it's kind of a in hindsight situation but in hindsight uh you know we should have been betting on Anthony Joshua Friday night against Francis what were the odds for him to win by KO TKO any idea I think it was like minus 125 I bet oh my God close to even money yeah yeah that was one of those situations where we should have been all over that but uh you know just Francis andano you give him credit for the fight versus Tyson Fury which he probably did win he didn't get the scor card that was close either way but something we probably should have seen coming because we knew Joshua wasn't going to take him lightly after the performance he had versus uh Tyson Fury so you think Francis Nano will probably see him make his pfl debut uh sometime by the end of 2024 right definitely and uh you know I think that'll be fun hopefully we'll get to see him geez I'm blanking on the guy's name the massive dude pfl the heavyweight champ there 68 260 but I thinku's uh definitely going to put his lights out so you know it's uh it's about time uh I'd love to see him eventually you know fight some of those guys uh you know in the UFC but I think that ship is sailed and I think uh his boxing uh career probably isn't going to go any further than where it's gone so far yeah he got in and out he made around $30 million recorded across the two fights there in boxing so good for him but yeah I mean uh you know everyone wants to see the Josiane Nunes fight but it's it's not going to happen the UFC is not going to Pro co-promote with pfl we would make no sense for them to do that whatsoever um okay so yeah a lot to talk about uh five bets from us here uh that that's it for this week's edition of the show hopefully we put together another winning betting card for you guys row thanks as always for joining best of luck with your bets uh we'll catch you again next week thank you guys very much for watching yeah n”
Moneyline since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.65 close$1.65
Filho’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted · analyst stated $2.00