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Santino DeFranco
UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · breakdown

UFC 306 Noche: Sean O'Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili | Full Card | Bets | Breakdowns | Predictions

SD Santino DeFranco60% hit
22 months ago 2W–2L · +0.6u
Picks, timestamped entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
MT Manuel Torres v Ignacio Bahamondes MONEYLINE LOST
“I think ignasio wins this I think this is clearly his fight and then he's a underdog by like plus 120 what was he plus what he is plus 105 okay so plus 105 earlier I was looking at it uh yesterday I think it was and he was plus 115 or plus 120 I think he's come down a little bit I am shocked because I I mean Manuel Torres is fine um he's he's very decent he's beating shorter Fighters I mean with the Mota fight I mean that's exactly what I was thinking is he's never matched someone that's his SI like his height yeah especially taller that that a kickboxer and it's not like he's uh who's that crazy son of a [__] that beat ignasio um um M desie no kleene oh yeah yeah let of it Klein it's not like he's just Klein gonna be spamming kicks in your face going you know just just there and then mcdes who's a hard guy to deal with with his spinning heel kicks um Manuel is very standard normal boxing Muay Thai but he stands kind of square with his stance which when ignasio starts firing stuff right down the middle that's going to be hard to deal with uh ignasio has a good chin he's really tall he's hard to take down I don't know that that'll matter but Manuel actually has good Jiu-Jitsu and does a lot of the right stuff it does look good yeah but I don't know that he has the wrestling to get the the fight there and I don't know that it's going to really end up on the ground unless somebody gets hurt or you know catches a kick or something like that so then you've now ignasio is a lot slower than Manuel he is he's he's kind of a a bit of a deer but man he's he's just massive he's huge spinning kicks longdistance punches we've seen people try to get inside on him and it's really hard and Manuel is beating smaller Chris Duncan where and Duncan hurt him bad yes he really did and that's the thing is I think man I I think ignasio is gonna put Manuel away well it's really like he's never been out of the first round at least not in years and years and years and years and years like every UFC fight has ended in the first round and so for me like unless this guy just has this guy has to Define aura he just has to be 100% Aura because if he's not you know you take the guy that's done 15 minutes before that's gone three rounds before that's a well- versed kickboxer from a good gym good takedown defense like just so like just better gas tanks so I'm I'm with you I like uh agasio baham mandz here yeah I mean I think Manuel Torres is great but I don't see anything there that is going to get him by ignasio you know would say like okay wait for the first round to to live bet you know when you think that Torres is going to fade and I guess we have no evidence to say that he's going to fade but his style how he fights like he has gassed out in the past before like well the thing with me is that he that Duncan hurt him Duncan hurt him with like a jab or I mean not a hard punch right down the middle yeah he's just very hitable um and Mota we like for Mota is very good he just doesn't fight well and he waits and waits and waits and then he throws those big punches and he's very predictable and man well just through that elbow right no you know with Moda he's not going to go until you go you throw something at him and then he's going to counter you and so he threw and he was expecting it went right I mean beautiful timed killed him yeah I mean it was great bamz also has a lot of lateral movement too he draws you into him like spot so yep”
Line since pick CLV +2%
◆ entry$1.84 close$1.81
entry: Pinnacle · best in any region at publish
ER Esteban Ribovics v Daniel Zellhuber MONEYLINE WON
“I like ryoix for the upset here I don't know if it'll happen and maybe it's wishful thinking I I mean the smart brain says you know zel Huber is so tall that he keeps him on the outside and he lands more um but man the other thing is pra trains at goat shed with not um kill cliff and I think he I think riov vix is going to have a lot of really good training partners and he's a Henry hoof guy yeah he's a Henry hoof guy so give me Ryo vix for the upset here I'm so with you I that's why I cannot wait to see this fight I love zel hubber I think he is so incredibly good so talented but every single fight when you bet on him your [__] is clenched because you're like man he's gonna he's gonna eat a big bomb didn't even Chris sagos like rock the [__] out of him and that's chriso yagos who actually is eston's teammate yep um yagos just quits like if he had a little bit of fight in him he could actually do something yeah I I mean estabon is just the most calm fighter I've ever seen huge head um he cracks super hard I can't believe that this line has gotten to where it is because I really I really figure this is a pick them you have the the volume and the movement of zel Huber versus the big cracking shots of of ribovich um I like eson here I think eventually you give him 15 minutes to to find him he will and he's gonna start to pick up the pace and he punches in combination tooo he's a great puncher yeah I'm with you I like it yeah we're biased on this podcast but I like him uh I agree I got a Theon um”
Line since pick CLV +3%
◆ entry$3.15 close$3.05
entry: Betsson · best in any region at publish
JV Joshua Van v Édgar Cháirez MONEYLINE WON
“I like van here I think he's going to win but I think the over might hit as well I'm with you um you know we so I didn't get to watch all the fights last weekend um I heard we got a two-handed tap Again by Chanel yeah was it two-handed I don't know yeah that's that that's what everybody's making the big deal of and I I hope that that stemmed from me making the big deal about the two-handed tap I think everyone else might have saw them like ah whatever but then I made such a big deal about it I think I was the epicenter so I already got the two-handed tap but the reason I bring it up is because deran also got knocked out viciously recently yep and he from all all accounts looked just fine right yeah yeah he well first couple minutes of that fight he got tagged up and beat up um maybe that was just taking the fight on short notice not who knows Chanel's a good Striker though too so maybe it that and then then Jordan started pressing and swinging and and finding his Mark a van does get hurt a lot it's weird chyz I like his striking he's such a weird fighter to me because sometimes he looks so good and then sometimes he doesn't do anything at all and he's just kind of like there yeah but he won't [__] off either like he just doesn't die but he doesn't press yeah well no but I mean it's he's not a guy who's gonna like cardio gas and then he quits like he's not gonna quit on you like he'll stay there and fight you he's Mexican um I like van here I mean it's hard not to like van you know I I understand he just got knocked out three months ago or two months ago whatever it was but he's still a really really good fighter his pressure his Pace his volume the dude's just got confidence and Swagger I mean maybe his confidence is shot I don't know I don't know how he's gonna come out but uh just skill for skill I do like van here I hate to play him at chalk on short notice but yeah thing with Van is we see people a lot of times like chyz loves his jab and he kind of will drop it a little bit uh and Van we saw it with Charles Johnson we he follows back with that overhand right and that a very common thing in MMA is people jab and you follow with overhand right but he follows it up he doesn't one punch he throws overhand then he rips the body he comes back over the top uh and he's always punching in volume so I like his volume I like honestly I I do like the over I do think it's going to go a little while but I wouldn't be surprised if he actually with his body shots really hurt chyz and it wouldn't surprise me if he did find a TKO in the third round have to imagine that ch's body is going to be a little weak too just from the amount of weight that he cuts yes and it's going to have a big impact on him too so I like uh I like van here sweet”
Line since pick CLV +1%
◆ entry$1.50 close$1.48
entry: Paddy Power · best in any region at publish
IA Irene Aldana v Norma Dumont MONEYLINE LOST
“I like Irena here Maybe not childbearing maybe not um maybe child adopting but potato potato but yeah I I want to like ireena here if it stays standing and but man Norma if Norma could wrestle her and really I think Norma's needs the stylistically she needs the fight of her life to win because she's got to be able to put her on the fence put her on the cage and get her down and we saw with Macy's chaon that was hard for her dealing with that la Long Tall weird body um and you know what I don't want to do MMA math here but alonna koed her flat yeah she did no that was the craziest knockout of all time with from her back the upkick to the liver yeah but Alana will find a way to win and she's got a chin she's got some whiskers on that beard so I I like Alana here um in what I think is actually gonna be a really good fight yeah I'm I'm going to be on alonna uh in this fight and and here's why I do think Norma's good if Norma goes out BL her out of the water I wouldn't be surprised at all because uh you know she is heavy on top she is really skilled but her style is bad and especially it's bad in EVENT_DETAILS that's dedicating to Mexicans and like you said everything is going to go crazy for the Mexicans Norma fought the ghost of Germaine dur randomy in the last fight and it was a close fight like it was even odds going into the last round right it was split 1-1 all that stuff now you have Irene who's I know she's older but at least she's been active she's been fighting people she had a great fight with Carol hos Rosa that uh she's really good too I mean she really is good I think she's really good um just active spry putting punches in the face every single time she lands the crowd's gonna go crazy and by the crowd I mean me I'm go nuts I'm influency judges I don't know if we mention it but this is a themed card we talk about it you go to Australia there's 12 Australians on the card 10 or 11 of them are winning you know you go to Canada gen well last Canada card was weird but um you know you go to France the French people are winning this is a themed card this is a this is a Mexico City card happening in I think it's gonna be a really close fight but kind of like we talk about all the time not that Norma's out classed on the feet either she is good I just think it's a little bit more Pace volume and uh just like Digger moments versus her kind of like pickpocket sniper shots I think it looks better for the crowd so I I think just on hustle that Irene is gonna win this fight by decision probably yeah I Norm's tough yeah yeah I think so I think you're right”
Line since pick CLV +3%
◆ entry$2.00 close$1.95
entry: Bovada · best in any region at publish