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Prophecy read
Diego Ferreira v Rębecki
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Diego Ferreira 23-8
VS
20-4 Rębecki
5'5"
height
5'7"
215 lb
weight
155 lb
64"
reach
66"
—
age
33
Switch
stance
Southpaw
3.7
strikes landed / min
4.7
58%
striking accuracy
48%
2.4
strikes absorbed / min
4.1
64%
striking defence
54%
2.0
takedowns / 15 min
3.8
60%
takedown accuracy
75%
80%
takedown defence
45%
1.6
submissions / 15 min
0.8
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
ZP
Zlatan's Fight Picks picks Carlos Diego Ferreira VALUE
“I'm picking Carlos Diego Ferreira for the upset”
Zlatan's Fight Picks picks Carlos Diego Ferreira VALUE
“I'm picking Carlos Diego Ferreira for the upset”
TT
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Carlos Diego Ferreira VALUE
“Carlos Diego Ferreira at plus 400”
$5.00
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Carlos Diego Ferreira VALUE
“Carlos Diego Ferreira at plus 400”
$5.00
MB
MMA Bros picks Carlos Diego Ferreira
“I'm going with matteus rebecky”
MMA Bros picks Carlos Diego Ferreira
“I'm going with matteus rebecky”
HB
Half The Battle picks Mateusz Rębecki VALUE
“I'm going rety here”
Half The Battle picks Mateusz Rębecki VALUE
“I'm going rety here”
LF
Liam Picks Fights picks Carlos Diego Ferreira VALUE
“probably lean towards the Manfield side for me but he also could get clipped and knocked out I really believe in menafield in terms of his brain thinking so I'd want to get like over two to one I think on the money line but I think that Alonzo's live in this spot”
$3.30
Liam Picks Fights picks Carlos Diego Ferreira VALUE
“probably lean towards the Manfield side for me but he also could get clipped and knocked out I really believe in menafield in terms of his brain thinking so I'd want to get like over two to one I think on the money line but I think that Alonzo's live in this spot”
$3.30
AP
AnyGivenMonday Podcast picks Mateusz Rębecki
“I'm rocking Mateusz Rębecki on this one”
AnyGivenMonday Podcast picks Mateusz Rębecki
“I'm rocking Mateusz Rębecki on this one”
WP
We Want Picks picks Carlos Diego Ferreira VALUE
“Carlos Diego Ferreira we already got the other side with matus rebecky”
We Want Picks picks Carlos Diego Ferreira VALUE
“Carlos Diego Ferreira we already got the other side with matus rebecky”
WP
We Want Picks picks Mateusz Rębecki VALUE
“Mateusz Rębecki more than two takedowns it's now more than two and a half you're probably fine”
We Want Picks picks Mateusz Rębecki VALUE
“Mateusz Rębecki more than two takedowns it's now more than two and a half you're probably fine”
PS
Plays & Fades Sports picks Mateusz Rębecki
“I do think he's my pick in this matchup”
Plays & Fades Sports picks Mateusz Rębecki
“I do think he's my pick in this matchup”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Mateusz Rębecki
“give me mat fresy to dust up Diego Ferrera”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Mateusz Rębecki
“give me mat fresy to dust up Diego Ferrera”
OS
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Mateusz Rębecki VALUE
“my official pick and my subscribers official pick is um mat taing”
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Mateusz Rębecki VALUE
“my official pick and my subscribers official pick is um mat taing”
HM
Hungoverhand Right MMA picks Carlos Diego Ferreira
“I like rebecky Mateusz Rębecki like you said he's just too well-rounded he's got good hands for a wrestler like honestly I feel like he's like similar to gamr they're both polish they both are good at wrestling but he's better I can't really pick I can't really pick a method though I don't know”
Hungoverhand Right MMA picks Carlos Diego Ferreira
“I like rebecky Mateusz Rębecki like you said he's just too well-rounded he's got good hands for a wrestler like honestly I feel like he's like similar to gamr they're both polish they both are good at wrestling but he's better I can't really pick I can't really pick a method though I don't know”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Diego Ferreira23-8
L
Hernandez
Sep '25
L
Dawson
Jan '25
W
Rębecki
May '24
W
Johnson
May '23
L
Gamrot
Dec '21
Rębecki20-4
L
Dawson
May '26
L
Klein
Oct '25
L
Duncan
Aug '25
W
Orolbai
Oct '24
L
Ferreira
May '24