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Prophecy read
Costa v Nuerdanbieke
Featherweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Costa 26-7
VS
39-12 Nuerdanbieke
5'10"
height
5'8"
145 lb
weight
145 lb
71"
reach
69"
29
age
32
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
3.5
strikes landed / min
1.9
46%
striking accuracy
45%
2.3
strikes absorbed / min
2.6
58%
striking defence
50%
2.5
takedowns / 15 min
3.3
35%
takedown accuracy
35%
52%
takedown defence
28%
1.1
submissions / 15 min
0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
IP
It's Time - UFC Picks picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke VALUE
“I really like ner and Beak in this fight”
It's Time - UFC Picks picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke VALUE
“I really like ner and Beak in this fight”
SA
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Melquizael Costa
“I'm going to pick Melquizael Costa to win I'm G to pick him to win by decision”
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Melquizael Costa
“I'm going to pick Melquizael Costa to win I'm G to pick him to win by decision”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke VALUE
“I am picking Shayilan Nuerdanbieke I believe he has the better boxing skills he also is more of a physically imposing threat in the wrestling Department”
$2.65
MMA EXPERTS picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke VALUE
“I am picking Shayilan Nuerdanbieke I believe he has the better boxing skills he also is more of a physically imposing threat in the wrestling Department”
$2.65
CC
Cody's Calls picks Melquizael Costa
“I'm going to S with Costa here in this one”
Cody's Calls picks Melquizael Costa
“I'm going to S with Costa here in this one”
I9
i9ines picks Melquizael Costa
“I'm going to be siding with melus Alcosta I feel like he's just a little bit more smooth on the feet and if it does go to the grappling I don't think Shay lan can hold him down the whole fight or choke him God forbid I actually think Mel kazal is probably better on the ground so yeah I'm going going with Mel kazal Costa I think he will find a way to get a finish”
i9ines picks Melquizael Costa
“I'm going to be siding with melus Alcosta I feel like he's just a little bit more smooth on the feet and if it does go to the grappling I don't think Shay lan can hold him down the whole fight or choke him God forbid I actually think Mel kazal is probably better on the ground so yeah I'm going going with Mel kazal Costa I think he will find a way to get a finish”
MM
MMAWeekly.com picks Melquizael Costa
“Melquizael Costa Shayilan Nuerdanbieke versus Mel”
MMAWeekly.com picks Melquizael Costa
“Melquizael Costa Shayilan Nuerdanbieke versus Mel”
WP
We Want Picks picks Melquizael Costa
“Melos is going to be the pick”
We Want Picks picks Melquizael Costa
“Melos is going to be the pick”
WP
We Want Picks picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke VALUE
“I think shaan's are looking pretty good at plus 163”
$2.63
We Want Picks picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke VALUE
“I think shaan's are looking pretty good at plus 163”
$2.63
KC
Keg & Company | A Betting Collective picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke VALUE
“at the number I got to go with the dog here I got to side with the nordon Beck side”
Keg & Company | A Betting Collective picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke VALUE
“at the number I got to go with the dog here I got to side with the nordon Beck side”
KC
Keg & Company | A Betting Collective picks Melquizael Costa
“my lean here is Melquizael Costa”
Keg & Company | A Betting Collective picks Melquizael Costa
“my lean here is Melquizael Costa”
TP
The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Melquizael Costa
“I'm on Melquizael Melquizael Costa”
The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Melquizael Costa
“I'm on Melquizael Melquizael Costa”
TP
The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke VALUE
“he's certainly the lean for me right now gotcha man”
The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke VALUE
“he's certainly the lean for me right now gotcha man”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Costa26-7
L
Allen
May '26
W
Ige
Feb '26
W
Charrière
Dec '25
W
Erosa
May '25
W
Rodriguez
Mar '25
Nuerdanbieke39-12
L
Costa
Jun '24
L
Garcia
Apr '23
W
Minner
Nov '22
W
Brown
Jun '22
W
Soriano
Nov '21