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Pereira vs HillMain Card · Light Heavyweight
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Weili vs XiaonanMain Card · Women'S Strawweight
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Holloway vs GaethjeMain Card · Lightweight
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Procházka vs RakićPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
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Figueiredo vs GarbrandtEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
JH
Pereira vs HillMain Card · Light Heavyweight
ZW
YX
Weili vs XiaonanMain Card · Women'S Strawweight
MH
JG
Holloway vs GaethjeMain Card · Lightweight
AT
CO
Tsarukyan vs OliveiraMain Card · Lightweight
BN
CB
Nickal vs BrundageMain Card · Middleweight
JP
AR
Procházka vs RakićPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
AS
CK
Sterling vs KattarPreliminary Card · Featherweight
KH
HH
Harrison vs HolmPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
DL
SY
Lopes vs YusuffPreliminary Card · Featherweight
RM
JT
Moicano vs TurnerEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight
JA
MR
Andrade vs RodriguezEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BG
JM
Green vs MillerEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight
DF
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Figueiredo vs GarbrandtEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Holloway v Gaethje
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Holloway 0-0
VS
27-5 Gaethje
5'11"
height
5'11"
155 lb
weight
155 lb
69"
reach
70"
34
age
37
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
6.8
strikes landed / min
7.4
46%
striking accuracy
57%
4.4
strikes absorbed / min
5.8
59%
striking defence
54%
0.4
takedowns / 15 min
0.7
39%
takedown accuracy
34%
79%
takedown defence
68%
0.2
submissions / 15 min
0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
UF
UFS picks Max Holloway
“declaring the winner by knock out Max Holloway”
UFS picks Max Holloway
“declaring the winner by knock out Max Holloway”
RU
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Max Holloway
“love Max Holloway for this um I I just think Max Holloway”
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Max Holloway
“love Max Holloway for this um I I just think Max Holloway”
MP
Mike's MMA Picks picks Max Holloway
“Max Holloway is going to walk away Victorious”
Mike's MMA Picks picks Max Holloway
“Max Holloway is going to walk away Victorious”
TD
The Rambling Dad picks Max Holloway
“I am going to go with Max Holloway makes five I'NOT_IN_ROSTER_15 picking Max Holloway on this Max Holloway”
The Rambling Dad picks Max Holloway
“I am going to go with Max Holloway makes five I'NOT_IN_ROSTER_15 picking Max Holloway on this Max Holloway”
OS
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Max Holloway
“official pick is Max Hollow”
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Max Holloway
“official pick is Max Hollow”
TH
TheMacLife picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“this is everything without a win I don't get that shot”
TheMacLife picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“this is everything without a win I don't get that shot”
EB
ESPN BET picks Max Holloway VALUE
“Holloway is going to be live here he can go all five rounds he can take damage the volume's there”
$2.30
ESPN BET picks Max Holloway VALUE
“Holloway is going to be live here he can go all five rounds he can take damage the volume's there”
$2.30
SD
Skyler Dagley picks Max Holloway
“I'm going to take Max Holloway Max Holloway Holloway and I think I think Max Holloway Hollow is going to get the decision nod over Justin Gaethje gatei”
Skyler Dagley picks Max Holloway
“I'm going to take Max Holloway Max Holloway Holloway and I think I think Max Holloway Hollow is going to get the decision nod over Justin Gaethje gatei”
SA
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Max Holloway VALUE
“I'm picking Max Hollow to win picking to win either by decision or maybe a late finish”
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Max Holloway VALUE
“I'm picking Max Hollow to win picking to win either by decision or maybe a late finish”
GC
Gethin Ellis Coaching picks Max Holloway
“I don't think Justin Gaethje wants it I really do think Max Holloway wins”
Gethin Ellis Coaching picks Max Holloway
“I don't think Justin Gaethje wants it I really do think Max Holloway wins”
TT
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Max Holloway VALUE
“I lean Hollow or pass at the current price but I'm probably not betting at pre-fight I'm interested in Max live”
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Max Holloway VALUE
“I lean Hollow or pass at the current price but I'm probably not betting at pre-fight I'm interested in Max live”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Holloway0-0
L
Oliveira
Mar '26
W
Poirier
Jul '25
L
Topuria
Oct '24
W
Gaethje
Apr '24
W
Chan-sung
Aug '23
Gaethje27-5
W
Topuria
Jun '26
W
Pimblett
Jan '26
W
Fiziev
Mar '25
L
Holloway
Apr '24
W
Poirier
Jul '23