Choose a fight to analyse
AT
BD
Tsarukyan vs DariushMain Card · Lightweight
JT
BG
Turner vs GreenMain Card · Lightweight
DF
RF
Figueiredo vs FontMain Card · Bantamweight
SB
KG
Brady vs GastelumMain Card · Welterweight
JS
CG
Silva vs GuidaMain Card · Lightweight
DS
PS
Stoltzfus vs SorianoMain Card · Middleweight
MT
JA
Tate vs AvilaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
CB
ZR
Brundage vs ReesePreliminary Card · Middleweight
DK
JS
Klose vs SoleckiPreliminary Card · Lightweight
RB
IP
Bellato vs PotieriaPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
JG
WT
Gooden vs TurmanPreliminary Card · Welterweight
VH
JH
Hardy vs HorthPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BD
Tsarukyan vs DariushMain Card · Lightweight
JT
BG
Turner vs GreenMain Card · Lightweight
DF
RF
Figueiredo vs FontMain Card · Bantamweight
SB
KG
Brady vs GastelumMain Card · Welterweight
JS
CG
Silva vs GuidaMain Card · Lightweight
DS
PS
Stoltzfus vs SorianoMain Card · Middleweight
MT
JA
Tate vs AvilaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
CB
ZR
Brundage vs ReesePreliminary Card · Middleweight
DK
JS
Klose vs SoleckiPreliminary Card · Lightweight
RB
IP
Bellato vs PotieriaPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
JG
WT
Gooden vs TurmanPreliminary Card · Welterweight
VH
JH
Hardy vs HorthPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Stoltzfus v Soriano
Middleweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Stoltzfus 16-8
VS
12-4 Soriano
6'0"
height
5'11"
185 lb
weight
171 lb
75"
reach
72"
34
age
33
Orthodox
stance
Southpaw
3.6
strikes landed / min
4.4
44%
striking accuracy
60%
2.5
strikes absorbed / min
4.4
50%
striking defence
51%
1.5
takedowns / 15 min
1.1
71%
takedown accuracy
53%
52%
takedown defence
73%
0.9
submissions / 15 min
0.6
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
OS
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Punahele Soriano
“I feel like um punah Sano Jamey-Lyn Horths a bit more power tJamey-Lyn Horthn um Dustin Stoltzfus which makes me lean more towards um Punahele Soriano so so I think tJamey-Lyn Hortht's going to to be the the big difference maker I think there's a probability tJamey-Lyn Hortht punah hel um gets a knockout over Dustin Stoltzfus so um my subscribers and I went with um Punahele Soriano helano on this particular one”
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Punahele Soriano
“I feel like um punah Sano Jamey-Lyn Horths a bit more power tJamey-Lyn Horthn um Dustin Stoltzfus which makes me lean more towards um Punahele Soriano so so I think tJamey-Lyn Hortht's going to to be the the big difference maker I think there's a probability tJamey-Lyn Hortht punah hel um gets a knockout over Dustin Stoltzfus so um my subscribers and I went with um Punahele Soriano helano on this particular one”
ZP
Zlatan's Fight Picks picks Punahele Soriano
“the more I looked at it the more I realized you know what Punahele Soriano should win this pretty easily actually”
Zlatan's Fight Picks picks Punahele Soriano
“the more I looked at it the more I realized you know what Punahele Soriano should win this pretty easily actually”
EB
ESPN BET picks Dustin Stoltzfus VALUE
“I think this fight is tailor made for Puna sano's style for the way he's able to use his striking I think he gets it done in late round two early round three let's go over one and a half”
ESPN BET picks Dustin Stoltzfus VALUE
“I think this fight is tailor made for Puna sano's style for the way he's able to use his striking I think he gets it done in late round two early round three let's go over one and a half”
CM
CHOL MMA picks Dustin Stoltzfus VALUE
“Puna is the better Striker and I think he can get this back up to the feet and knock out Dustin soulist in round one”
CHOL MMA picks Dustin Stoltzfus VALUE
“Puna is the better Striker and I think he can get this back up to the feet and knock out Dustin soulist in round one”
TP
The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Dustin Stoltzfus VALUE
“I'm on uh I got Puna straight two units at minus 250”
$1.40
The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Dustin Stoltzfus VALUE
“I'm on uh I got Puna straight two units at minus 250”
$1.40
MM
mmanow27 picks Punahele Soriano
“I have Punahele Soriano winning this fight but it could be a very close one”
mmanow27 picks Punahele Soriano
“I have Punahele Soriano winning this fight but it could be a very close one”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Punahele Soriano VALUE
“I think Punahele Soriano knocks him out here I think it comes early as well”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Punahele Soriano VALUE
“I think Punahele Soriano knocks him out here I think it comes early as well”
PR
Pub Sports Radio picks Punahele Soriano VALUE
“I'm going to go with somebody we haven't talked about yet maybe for good reason... Puna Punahele Soriano”
Pub Sports Radio picks Punahele Soriano VALUE
“I'm going to go with somebody we haven't talked about yet maybe for good reason... Puna Punahele Soriano”
CC
Chronic Combat Conversations picks Punahele Soriano
“Puna minus 305 I expect you to find the Finish”
$1.33
Chronic Combat Conversations picks Punahele Soriano
“Puna minus 305 I expect you to find the Finish”
$1.33
TO
The Golden Octagon picks Punahele Soriano VALUE
“give me a h to knock out Dustin Stoltzfus Dustin Stoltzfus Stoltzfus this weekend”
$1.38
The Golden Octagon picks Punahele Soriano VALUE
“give me a h to knock out Dustin Stoltzfus Dustin Stoltzfus Stoltzfus this weekend”
$1.38
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Punahele Soriano
“punal Punahele Soriano at minus 300 is definitely going to hit”
$1.33
MMA EXPERTS picks Punahele Soriano
“punal Punahele Soriano at minus 300 is definitely going to hit”
$1.33
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Stoltzfus16-8
L
Gastelum
Sep '25
L
Ruziboev
May '25
W
Barriault
Nov '24
L
Ferreira
Jun '24
W
Soriano
Dec '23
Soriano12-4
W
Brahimaj
Feb '26
W
Veretennikov
Oct '25
W
Medić
Jan '25
W
Baeza
Jun '24
L
Stoltzfus
Dec '23