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UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Nascimento v Mayes Heavyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus33 picks · conf 56/99
Nascimento 28
5 Mayes
HPDFMU pick Nascimento
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Nascimento 11-3 VS 11-7 Mayes
— height 6'6"
— weight 260 lb
— reach 81"
33 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.7 strikes landed / min 3.5
47% striking accuracy 43%
4.3 strikes absorbed / min 3.8
44% striking defence 46%
1.0 takedowns / 15 min 0.7
37% takedown accuracy 38%
60% takedown defence 58%
0.5 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Rodrigo Nascimento “my subscribers and myself have picked the Rodrigo Nascimento”
PP Prime Time Picks picks Rodrigo Nascimento “give me Rodrigo Nascimento”
DG Diary of a Pro Gambler picks Rodrigo Nascimento VALUE “I am very very tempted to bet nasimo”
MP Mike's MMA Picks picks Rodrigo Nascimento “nasimo is going to be the pick”
KU Kunath picks Rodrigo Nascimento VALUE “I believe that hadalo Vieira should be the side that you land on this week”
MM Meo on MMA picks Rodrigo Nascimento VALUE “I'm going to go Nation Mento by by decision”
BP Boxing MMA Picks picks Rodrigo Nascimento VALUE “I'm gonna go uh Rodrigo naso to win this fight”
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Rodrigo Nascimento “I can see Rodrigo Nascimento getting Rodrigo Nascimento money line minus 20 five beating Rodrigo Nascimento winning minus 205” $1.49
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Don'Tale Mayes VALUE “I don't mind Don'Tale Mayes at this price tag he's going to be low owned and he has power and if he does it's it's probably some type of finish here”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Rodrigo Nascimento VALUE “I like Rodrigo Nascimento to win this fight”
FP Free Picks PickDawgz picks Rodrigo Nascimento VALUE “I'm not on Don'Tale Mayess give me nasam so easily on this one man I like that one a lot”
FP Free Picks PickDawgz picks Don'Tale Mayes “Rodrigo Nascimento taking on Don'Tale Mayes it's a rematch it's a rematch folk they already fought you guys know me I'm not on Don'Tale Mayess”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Nascimento11-3
L Romanov Decision · R3 Nov '24
L Lewis KO/TKO · R3 May '24
W Mayes Decision · R3 Nov '23
W Latifi Decision · R3 May '23
W Boser Decision · R3 Sep '22
Mayes11-7
L Petersen Decision · R3 May '25
L Walker Submission · R1 Feb '25
L Gaziev Decision · R3 Aug '24
W Machado Decision · R3 Apr '24
L Nascimento Decision · R3 Nov '23