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UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Green v Dawson Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus69 picks · conf 75/99
Green 20
49 Dawson
FHTMHT pick Green
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Green 13-10-1 VS 23-3-1 Dawson
— height 5'10"
— weight 156 lb
— reach 72"
— age 32
— stance Switch
— strikes landed / min 3.1
— striking accuracy 52%
— strikes absorbed / min 2.0
— striking defence 45%
— takedowns / 15 min 3.6
— takedown accuracy 38%
— takedown defence 57%
— submissions / 15 min 1.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
UC UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Bobby Green VALUE “side call Bobby Green to win”
TS The MMA Road Show® picks Grant Dawson “I'd probably have to go with Dawson but my heart's going to be cheering for green”
LM Leftlane MMA picks Bobby Green VALUE “I'll be picking uhon CA to win this fight”
TM The MMA Minute picks Bobby Green VALUE “I'm a huge Bobby Green fan and I hope he stuffs the take down and knocks Grant Grant Dawson out late”
CP Couch Warrior Podcast picks Bobby Green VALUE “if you told me right now that Grant Dawson will not be able to get Bobby Green down I'd probably Max bet Bobby Green because there's no way Grant Dawson can beat him on the feet”
CP Couch Warrior Podcast picks Grant Dawson VALUE “I am on Grant Grant Dawson”
SA Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Grant Dawson VALUE “I think Grant Dawson wins I think he puts up a massive score” $1.24
AO Andrew Osantowski picks Grant Dawson VALUE “I'm gonna side with Grant Dawson here man maybe he finds a submission”
FI FightBookMMA picks Grant Dawson VALUE “Dawson is just gonna lay the hammer on him bro it's yeah it's weird”
FI FightBookMMA picks Bobby Green “I think Bobby Green stands a chance man in this hell no”
BS BTS - Behind the Sports picks Bobby Green “face off good morning folks welcome to the face offs for UFC Fight Night Grant Dawson versus Bobby Green”
MN Mayo Media Network picks Grant Dawson VALUE “rolling with the main event favorite here Grant Dawson at 9.4k” $1.23
Recent form last five, most recent first
Green13-10-1
W Miller Decision · R3 Apr '24
L Turner KO/TKO · R1 Dec '23
W Dawson KO/TKO · R1 Oct '23
W Ferguson Submission · R3 Jul '23
L Dober KO/TKO · R2 Dec '22
Dawson23-3-1
W Rębecki Submission · R3 May '26
L Torres KO/TKO · R1 Dec '25
W Ferreira Decision · R3 Jan '25
W García KO/TKO · R2 Oct '24
W Solecki Decision · R3 Jun '24