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UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · breakdown

UFC 299 O'Malley VS Vera 2

ZP Zlatan's Fight Picks62% hit
28 months ago 4W–10L · -5.9u
Picks, timestamped entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
PL Philipe Lins v Ion Cuțelaba MONEYLINE WON
“I'm going to pick Philipe Linss he should be able to beat Ion Cuțelaba who is exciting and he's fun to watch I just I just don't think he's that good”
Line since pick CLV +1%
◆ entry$2.15 close$2.13
entry: NordicBet · best in any region at publish
MM Maryna Moroz v Joanne Wood MONEYLINE LOST
“so I'm going to go with Maryna Moroz uh yeah pretty decent degree of confidence on this one”
Line since pick CLV +3%
◆ entry$1.49 close$1.45
entry: Casumo · best in any region at publish
RA Rafael dos Anjos v Mateusz Gamrot MONEYLINE LOST
“so I think given the abilities I think alabay has more abilities I think the metrics are in reras side um this fight should be a lot closer that's the only thing problem I have with it almaa should be the favorite but he's like minus 550 minus 600 it's just ridiculous I mean is it worth a dog shot I mean yeah could could be a dog shot for vagera um there's a time to fade elv and I think it might not be this time so elv is going to be the pick”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$4.55 close$4.55
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish
JP Josh Parisian v Robelis Despaigne MONEYLINE LOST
“I'm going to pick Josh pan you know he's 34 years old he's no spring chicken but he's also been fighting in the UFC so he's a plus 255 Underdog or even larger than that now plus 270 so I'm going to pick Josh perian”
Line since pick CLV +3%
◆ entry$4.20 close$4.08
entry: Casumo · best in any region at publish
MP Michel Pereira v Michał Oleksiejczuk MONEYLINE WON
“I think OJ's going to win this he is an underdog in this but these are both guys that I like to bet on uh but yeah I think well J chck I mean he he's just he can go down to a lighter weight class but he's just naturally a very strong tough durable guy”
Line since pick CLV −1%
◆ entry$1.70 close$1.71
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish
PM Pedro Munhoz v Kyler Phillips MONEYLINE LOST
“I'm going to go with the underdog I'm going to go with ped MOS I bet on I bet on him against Marlon Vera the last fight and I thought he had his moments but Marlon Vera was just too tough”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$3.00 close$3.00
entry: BlueBet · best in any region at publish
KC Katlyn Cerminara v Maycee Barber MONEYLINE LOST
“I got to take the underdog in this one you know I know Maycee Barbera is up and comeer but she's going to have a ceiling she's very aggressive she's always throwing punches but so is kitlyn chigan”
Line since pick
no market data captured for this fight
JA Jailton Almeida v Curtis Blaydes MONEYLINE LOST
“I think blad is going to be the first sign of this he's going to be too big and blaz has doesn't look that great but he's going to look pretty good against Almeida”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.95 close$1.95
entry: Caesars · best in any region at publish
SY Song Yadong v Petr Yan MONEYLINE LOST
“I think Peter's going to win this fight I think still he's still a top level guy he could still be the champ”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.15 close$2.16
entry: Pinnacle · best in any region at publish
KH Kevin Holland v Michael Page MONEYLINE LOST
“I'm going to go with Kevin Holland the devil I know I've seen him fight I then the level of Fighters that I've seen him fight Michael venom pagee has fought decent fights decent Fighters but I don't know if they're at that level”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.80 close$1.80
entry: BetMGM · best in any region at publish
BD Benoît Saint Denis v Dustin Poirier MONEYLINE LOST
“I am going to go with porier 35 years old he hasn't really shown any signs of slowing down he did get knocked out last time that's a concern 35 years old is about the time I'm concerned about him wanting to retire”
Line since pick CLV +4%
◆ entry$1.56 close$1.50
entry: Casumo · best in any region at publish
SO Sean O'Malley v Marlon Vera MONEYLINE WON
“I think this is going to be a decision five rounds omal is going to win decent amount of confidence pretty confident apart from something devastating like an injury I think omali wins this”
Line since pick CLV +1%
◆ entry$1.42 close$1.40
entry: LowVig.ag · best in any region at publish
MV Marlon Vera v Sean O'Malley MONEYLINE LOST
“I think omali wins this all right let's go to the board oh boy oh boy this is scary this is scary I'm scared when this fight came up when all this fight I move this actually the bo when this came up I'm there like when it when it was all said and done and I I went through my board and I looked at all the people that I picked their underdogs it was scary okay this claimer this is not Financial advice only bet what you can afford to lose remember this is fights and this is gambling well somewhat of a gamble an educated guest but these are fights and anything can happen so this is my most confident the least confident take what you agree with do your own research see if you can put it in with yours maybe uh do a little differently I I had mine you know broken up sometimes I break it up here some sometimes I break up individually or I put them in groups uh take what you need and like I said I I sometimes I I I do breaks where I I I'll do a parlay only so much or I'll take a couple of these guys and put it with these guys I didn't put the line breaks on this one cuz honestly it could be anywhere just because of the amount of underdogs on this one having said that the last time there was that many underdogs was the Canadian card and out of that 14 fights on the Canadian card I can't remember it was 13 or 14 fights there were seven underdogs that won I have eight underdogs picked here so I have never seen eight underdogs win on a 14 fight fight card so the statistics are not in my favor and I know that but I kind of just went with what I thought on an individual fight basis and this is how it turned out but like I said it would be the first time eight underdogs have won in 14 fights that I've seen on the UFC so take that into account uh most confident you know what it was between this guy and this guy om Ali should win this we've seen this fight before apart from him getting hurt he's going to win the decision this is the best fight for him if anything um the next fight's going to be much harder alv minus 600 he should beat Marlon Vera ver uh Marlon Vera's always uh sorry uh not Marlon Vera um what's his name vergera vergera but it's going to be close the metrics don't work in his favor but he's still going to be able to out doog this guy even though vergera is a really big dog this guy won't get tired he'll keep going after the takedowns he should be able to outpoint vagera Morrow should be able to beat wood wood is reti Hing and Morrow should be able to beat this uh normally I don't like women this high up because it always ends up being closer than it should be but Morrow should be able to win this fight this is her fight to lose Holland um fought you know really good competition in the UFC I know that he's fought good competition I know he's put up good fights I know he's good on the ground he's a decent Striker I mean he's good everywhere he should be able to meet uh beat Paige Paige is 36 years old yeah he's at the tail end of his career but uh it's good to see him in the UFC I think Holland's going to be able to pull this off uh porier decent size decent amount of confidence he is my first Underdog on this board benony has been proven at this level he looks really good don't get me wrong I know porier has fought the best guys at 35 years old as long as he's not already retired in his mind I think he can win this fight moving moving on Lind I mean a lot of people don't even want to pick this fight I just don't like Ion Cuțelaba I don't think he's that good I think it's Lynn's fight to lose if he knows the game plan of clinching and holding and uh wearing on Ion Cuțelaba and kind of taking it over in the second and third round he should be able to win this mid level confidence Yan uh Yan was the former champion and I know song's coming up and up and comer but this guy's already proven it he's proven against the toughest guys um I got to go with Yan on this one uh Munoz now we're going into the heavy underdogs Muno um again tough guy fought the top Echelon of guys lost to the top Echelon of guys Phillips has not fought that level of competition his metrics are working against him but at a coin flip fight he is a plus 185 dog I got to go with Muno on this one again going up there in age chukan chukan again again going up there in age but F top e of the girls have knows how to point fight from the outside squeezes out all these decisions against girls that are shorter than her she knows how to play this game she's done it a long time she's at the tail end of her career I don't know she's too old I don't think she is at 35 years old she could if she could still do it she's going to be able to outpoint Barber from the outside again Underdog got to go with her plus money blades blades is going to be the naturally bigger guy he's going to be the better Striker he's normally a wrestler he should be able to beat jilton Almeida who's great Jiu-Jitsu guy I don't think he belongs as this Division I think now's the time you're going to start to see that he shouldn't be in this division even though he's a good Jiu-Jitsu guy he's too small for this division BL is going to be the pick it's going to be too big all J again a coin flip fight against Pereira this guy everybody seems to underestimate this guy he is the underdog I go got to go with the underdog in this one again Pereira is going to have a hard time he's going to try to be re elusive he's going to get in close this guy's a really good boxer and I think he is the guy is going to be able to take a better shot as well dos anos plus 360 I mean to me it's a coin flip fight I mean at at 39 years old he is old he's a huge under Underdog on this one um gamron has been hurt before he's going to just try to wrestle the SOS very durable again he's probably getting a little older um and I got to take the dog shot at plus 360 you know I really think it's a coin fot fight I don't think um gamr dominates him I think gamr takes him down I think this guy keeps getting back up now will he be able to reverse positions to get some points back from that takedown will he be able to hit gamrat and hurt him because gamrot has been hurt quite often and he's a pretty good Striker the Angus is well very well-rounded uh he can even take gamerro down you know um still got good cardio plus 360 I don't know how else to play that uh Burns you know I got him um at low level confidence just because he is getting up there in age that's the issue I have with Burns is just his age at 37 years old um you know J Melina still tough he's got really good body shots he can hurt burns on the feet Burns is still going to be able to throw back but he's got to get it to the ground low level confidence plus 140 got to go with Burns finally Parisian against espia espia we don't know anything about this guy perian we know he sucks but he's fighting in the UFC he's fought UFC level guys he's taking it to the third round I got to go with the dog on this one super low level confidence yeah one 2 three 4 five six seven eight underdogs I full disclosure statistically I've never seen eight underdogs come through uh who knows I mean if half of them came through it comes through I mean we're laughing especially the bigger ones I got to admit I I kind of like this card it's going to be really exciting there's a it's all the new guys moving up and all the old guys that are there now what's going to happen are the old guys too old are the new guys that good do they need to get better are the new old guys too old and it doesn't matter if those guys are any better they're just slowing down just enough where these guys can take them and take their spot you know what's the UFC up to I think they want to highlight their new up incoming talent but I don't think the UFC is going to get everything they want I think these old guys are pretty good still nevertheless don't forget to hit the like button if you like the content subscribe if you want to get notified the next time I post the video we'll have the recap video probably Tuesday hopefully we'll be celebrating on Tuesday talking about how all these underdogs came through otherwise thank you very much for joining me good luck in your bets good luck in these fights and we will see you next Tuesday”
Line since pick CLV +1%
◆ entry$3.40 close$3.38
entry: NordicBet · best in any region at publish
JM Jack Della Maddalena v Gilbert Burns MONEYLINE WON
“I think he wins this fight moving on Gilbert Burns versus Jack Della Maddalena Gilbert Burns 5 foot 10 71 inch reach 22 win six loss of 37 years old Jack Melena Jack Del Malala 5' 11 73 inch reach 16 wins two losses 37 years 27 years old ... Burns going to be the pick”
Line since pick CLV +10%
◆ entry$1.81 close$1.65
entry: Casumo · best in any region at publish