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UFC 303: Pereira vs. Procházka 2 · breakdown

UFC 303 MAIN CARD PREDICTIONS & BREAKDOWN

BR Broom
24 months ago 1W–5L · -2.0u
Picks, timestamped entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
MP Michael Page v Ian Machado Garry MONEYLINE LOST
“round two TKO for Michael Page”
Line since pick
no market data captured for this fight
AS Anthony Smith v Roman Dolidze MONEYLINE LOST
“Anthony Smith by decision”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.30 close$2.30
entry: Betsson · best in any region at publish
AS Anthony Smith v Roman Dolidze PROP · DECISION LOST
“Anthony Smith by decision”
Moneyline since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.30 close$2.30
Smith’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
DL Diego Lopes v Dan Ige MONEYLINE WON
“I believe it's three rounds I'm actually going to check real quick one second um we're just going to take a quick look see here Pez versus uh how many rounds picks predictions odds over 2.5 draw this isn't helping me well why isn't this helping me um I don't even know if like Lopez is capable of going five rounds okay is Lopez versus Orga five rounds let breakdown um I'm just going to assume that I'm just going to assume that it's yeah this is I'm just going to assume that it's three rounds we'll see though we'll see um moving up we have the main event uh Michael Page and Conor McGregor um I don't know where Conor McGregor got that belt he hasn't owned one of those in years I this isn't funny I don't know why I thought that was funny to say in the moment I'm not cutting that out though cuz this one's not getting any editing cuz those that's what my short let go to now and this is one of the hardest fights I've ever predicted um this one I go back and forth with all the time uh and I think my prediction comes down to the simple matter of game planning and short notice both of these guys were signed on that Mouse is annoying me both of these guys were signed to fight each other for EVENT_DETAILS and EVENT_DETAILS they were going to be probably the main event over aisna versus dricus dupy which is an amazing fight by the way um still mad that it's happening but happy it is as well NOT_IN_ROSTER_18 is a man who thrives on an unwillingness to simply just not be that guy he's he's that guy Yuri perasa can be summed up as that guy and yes Alex per chindam as I predicted he in the second round I didn't say second round I thought it was going to be like the second or third but um Yuri NOT_IN_ROSTER_3 doesn't know what an adjustment is I don't think he's ever made an adjustment in his game he's still open to the leg kicks he's chaotic he still continually puts his hands down I think he's coming off of a lot of uh confidence build up after that rocket fight but Rockit doesn't hit like Alex Pereira does and I know everyone talks about it like ooh ah Alex Pereira stonan he hit hard Alex Pereira hits hard dude Alex Pereira hits you like a Mac Truck going 70 M an hour on the freeway like perea like Alex Pereira's power is actually just different and it's terrifying with a short left hook he lifted your he literally curon knocked Yuri off the ground out of his socks that's what he did with a short left hook after a right hand to get Yuri to lean that way as Yuri was pressuring him up against the fence that's terrifying power and I don't know if Yuri pahasa understands that he needs to not absorb the leg kicks and he needs to keep his hands up in this fight was Yuri doing well yes was Yuri pressuring uh Alex Pereira against the fence well yes was he Landing his own shots yes none of them seem to really rock or hurt Alex Pereira he always seemed coherent but at the same time like Landing those shots like they're going to accumulate especially when it's someone like Yuri prosk hitting you NOT_IN_ROSTER_3 hits hard that being said short notice also benefits Yuri prohaska it doesn't give Alex Paha a lot of time to really work over exactly what his game plan would be and for him to even heal up those broken toes that he had during the NOT_IN_ROSTER_12 fight um I this one's been hard but I just don't think NOT_IN_ROSTER_3 is going to do enough different to beat paa I I could he win absolutely do I think he's going to no I think he's going to get chin checked again and I think this time uh it's not going to be able to be considered an early stoppage I think he's going to land something bigger I think he's going to have slightly less respect for Yuri praska because again NOT_IN_ROSTER_19 does nothing different between his fights he he he doesn't know what he's going to do when he does it he's he's a man of mystery and I think the weasel like talked about this in his I he I have he hasn't made a prediction video so I'm not copying but his his video breakdown talking about the fact that how Alex Pereira can destroy NOT_IN_ROSTER_2 and he's absolutely right it's the it's just the fact that you have to be in there with Yuri to know how to fight Yuri you can't watch tape on him because you're not going to know how he's gonna do anything while he's there uh I think for pra he's has to stick with the body Jab um faking straights to open up the leg kick and I think that's going to be the bread and butter up until he he has Yuri hurt up against the fence I think he's going to have Yuri weak on his legs I I'm I'm predicting a really cold third round KO I think Yuri's not going to be tentative and I think that's going to be a mistake from Yuri because I think early on he's going to get clipped and I think he's not going to get finished but I think he's going to uh be much more tentative after that moment of almost getting put away a second time by the same man and I think that's going to allow Alex Pereira to start implementing a game plan of pushing Yuri back keeping him away uh Landing stiff hard damaging shots to the body to the to the lead leg to the to the face obviously the face but I think he's going to I think he's going to thrive off a jab and a uh a low kick I think that's really just per what Alex Pereira has to do do uh will Yuri Implement a stronger grappling game I think he absolutely can but that also we've seen how tired Yuri and labored Yuri can get in a five rounder which is is not insane like he doesn't gas out insanely bad in a five rounder but Alex paa doesn't really either and this isn't at elevation I don't think this is at elevation I think this is uh this is in Las Vegas I think right I don't know um I don't remember but I have Alex Pera win by third round knockout uh but I wouldn't be surprised if this goes either way um yeah yeah that's uh that's it that's uh that's all I got for EVENT_DETAILS let me know main card uh whole full card predictions are going to come out in a short via tomorrow I'm going to work on that a little bit but I I'm I'm working weird schedule and days fly by right now uh but the end of today will be the fin fin day that a that I am working a weird schedule so I should be able to go back to doing things a little bit more normally and and you know having a schedule for maybe some other releases which most of you don't care about but that's that's it that's all I got for you today get lost please thank you very much”
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MS Mayra Bueno Silva v Macy Chiasson MONEYLINE LOST
“I'm going with Mayra Bueno Silva winning a split decision”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.95 close$1.95
entry: Pinnacle · best in any region at publish
MS Mayra Bueno Silva v Macy Chiasson PROP · DECISION LOST
“I'm going with Mayra Bueno Silva winning a split decision”
Moneyline since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.95 close$1.95
Silva’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted