MMA Prophecy
🌐BEST
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Procházka 2
Choose a fight to analyse
AP JP Pereira vs ProcházkaMain Card · Light Heavyweight DL DI Lopes vs IgeMain Card · Catchweight RD AS Dolidze vs SmithMain Card · Light Heavyweight MC MS Chiasson vs SilvaMain Card · Women'S Bantamweight IG MP Garry vs PageMain Card · Welterweight JP MB Pyfer vs BarriaultPreliminary Card · Middleweight AF CS Fili vs SwansonPreliminary Card · Featherweight JS CJ Silva vs JourdainPreliminary Card · Catchweight PT YG Talbott vs GhemmouriPreliminary Card · Bantamweight GR MW Robertson vs Waterson-GomezEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight MB AA Buday vs ArlovskiEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight RT CH Tsuruya vs HernandezEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight VO RS Oliveira vs SimónEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Lopes v Ige Catchweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Consensus36 picks · conf 58/99
Lopes 34
2 Ige
TPPSDL pick Lopes
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Lopes 27-8 VS 19-10 Ige
5'11" height 5'7"
146 lb weight 145 lb
72" reach 71"
31 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.5 strikes landed / min 3.7
58% striking accuracy 45%
2.2 strikes absorbed / min 3.5
56% striking defence 56%
1.0 takedowns / 15 min 1.0
39% takedown accuracy 26%
52% takedown defence 57%
1.2 submissions / 15 min 0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Diego Lopes “I think Diego Lopes gonna knock him out uh Diego Lopes is actually really one of my Diego Lopes... I have Diego Lopes all day... Diego Lopes wins the fight”
TD The Rambling Dad picks Diego Lopes VALUE “I'm taking Lopez”
CM Comedian Romeo Mac picks Diego Lopes VALUE “I got Dogo Diego Lopes decision UD” $1.67
SA Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Diego Lopes VALUE “starting with the fighters that I have the most exposure to in my top 150 lineups Jiří Procházka Ricky Simón Alex Pereira Macy Chiasson Andre Fili Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes”
DH Degen Hours picks Diego Lopes VALUE “I'm going with my boy Diego Lopes at minus 150 let's go baby let's go also quick story because Brian Ortega did go viral recently for a story about how he is like an eagle and when Eagles get to a certain age they go to a mountain top break their wings clip their uh beak and [ __ ] and they he's an eagle yeah he's saying that he gets reborn as an eagle and he gets whatever some stupid [ __ ] kind I mean it's kind of cool kind of The Psychotic it was actually really badass but for this instance against me it's corny as so yourself” $1.67
CM Chi-Town MMA picks Diego Lopes “I'm going to go with Diego Lopes round three KO TKO”
OM One On One | MMA picks Diego Lopes “I think Diego is GNA stop him... Diego Lopes is gonna catch him with a shot and hurt him and probably get it stopped”
TB Totally Blitzed picks Diego Lopes VALUE “I got Dogo Diego Lopes decision UD I'll take Diego Lopes I'll even put this on paper in the gamble right now I'll take Diego Lopes decision or submission I I I believe he's going to submit” $1.67
TP TheTailgate Sports Podcast picks Diego Lopes “I'm going to pick Diego Lopes Lopes here I think is going to be a phenomenal fight though”
MM MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Diego Lopes “give me Brian Ortega to win this one in a slight upset”
NN Noah Nwadei picks Diego Lopes VALUE “I think Diego Lopes is going to make this look easy Brian OA did come out and say something he announced that this would be his last fight at featherweight to go up to lightweight after this fight which is going to make even lightweight even more St but you know short notice Diego Lopes doesn't do anything for him since he wants to go up to lightwe lightweight like you know he might just go in there and just have fun the motivation like yeah I'm just makes him dangerous uh yeah that takes the pressure off him he's just like no I'm just going to go in there have a fight and he's a [cholo] he's you know he's about that life so he might just be like let's slang let's go they might [expletive] have some crazy grapple exchanges I think actually that mindset um it's going to make him approach this to receive a little bit less damage considering that he's probably moving up because of all the injuries he's had and things like that he's been his body's been a little bit brittle at 145 that's probably why he's moving up to 155 um and I just feel like the one fight we saw where he did take P what where he was very patient and didn't take much damage was against Korean zombie Korean zombie also has really good Jiu-Jitsu probably better wrestling than Diego Lopes and in his his prime I would say a little bit sharper hands uh less head movement though and look how he looked against Korean zombie I wouldn't be surprised if Bron takea came out and sell Paul for this one to mix things up and throw him off just like he uh showed up in that Korean zombie one and he picked tkz apart so I think him wanting to receive less damage could actually add in his benefit if that's actually going to be his mindset um the jiujitsu I feel like kind of nullifies itself but I talk more about this in my own predictions uh yall should really check that one out if y'all have the chance just yeah what if those exchangers look like [expletive] two snakes fighting two tarantulas just dust bubbles everywhere OA is hot to finish as well cuz Vinicius Oliveira had him like right there he was on the r yeah OA is hard to finish man hard to kill hard to finish versus a good finisher this is interesting this might be his first decision yeah I'm going to go Diego Lopes decision hot take hot take but again if he finishes him I won't be surprised but I'm going to go Diego Lopes decision right next fight all right the main time to see if you [expletive] time to see if uh Izzy is going to be biased which I don't think he will be uh or if he's just going to use what he knows about each fight I'm I'm interested I'm really curious to see how he breaks this one down because y was having a lot of success in the first one Alex Pereira is 36 years old now um but Alex Pereira does have the spirits as zi was talking about earlier in the interviews those Spirits really really do do some [expletive] man it comes around to that fourth round and he's a new man he's a new person event of the evening both Fighters have stepped up again to save the card Andrei Arlovski and have their rematch on two weeks notice this is an interesting fight still one thing about short notice though is that Jiří Procházka took a lot more damage in his last fight with rage on the same card as Alex Pereira PR than Alex Pereira did against NOT_IN_ROSTER_1 I feel like that's something to take not in as well I like to see it even on short notice what do you think will be different the approach from both Fighters will be different because they both know what could happen Alex Pereira knows he can get taken down and controlled and jury knows he can get knocked out but also Alex Pereira knows he can get touched and hurt by jury and need to be more more mindful of his ENT yeah espe when you Hur him this fight don't rush just take your time it'll come Alex Pereira can surprise him as well if jery takes him down Alex Pereira can surprise him some new [expletive] on the ground that he's been working on what do you think the pace of this rematch will be more calculated yeah more calculated slower cuz also they taking this on short notice they're both relatively fit but again you can get five round fit man that's that's the one that's I know short notice for five round fit that's crazy someone's going to die that's that's the mindset that either he finishes me or I finishes him that's the mindset you have to have if you're taking a short notice fight five rounds cuz holding on for five rounds and you're not fit I'm telling you this bad bad time bad as hell so you have to go in there and just be like right either he dies or I dies so who's going to try and kill who in this fight H I'm going to go jurry cuz we're The Chosen Few but also I think he might have learned from his mistake cuz people don't understand and also it makes things interesting he beats him then it's a trifecta Trilogy and I won't be the only one to knock this guy out and it'll be like oh wow I'm going go jurry and I'm going by third round or fourth round finish but yeah I mean still a good card good Sol Main Event rematch and yeah let's see third or fourth round finish now a lot of you I already know are going to be sad that oh it's bias and da d d d 3-1 H I want to see how many 3-1 comments do y'all think I'll have on this video who knows but what I will say is that man Yi had a lot of success against Alex Pereira in the first one he just did uh he was mixing up the takedowns he was also getting him thinking about the takedowns in order to strike him he just overcommitted one time and it costed him that's the reality of fighting Alex Pereira but at the same time if you think that he can learn from those mistakes and just won't close the distance too recklessly like he did in the past and you think that he generally just has the overall better skills than Alex Pereira then [expletive] man yeah I can see why you pick y man I don't think that that's bias at all I think that it was a very smart approach from Izzy and uh damn I can't wait to see that fight um overall coming to a conclusion of this video I think overall Israel adna's picks were not biased at all really I think he did a very good job of analyzing everything that could take place in the uh fights and analyzing everyone's style based off of their history and also I think as far as Alex Pereira PR and yashka goes it really can go either way cuz again Alex Pereira could just catch him just like he did the first time but if you remember in that first fight Jiří Procházka pahaska started to get the advantage after the leg kicks um in the first round which he still might have even won that first round after those leg kicks he was finding his range Alex Pereira seemed like he was getting tired from having to get taken down get back up and getting hit getting his getting pressured Up Against the Cage I mean a lot of people fold and break under y Braska and it's only a matter of time before Alex Pereira with his style with his action packed style gets caught so I think that it is very interesting I didn't necessarily pick Jiří Procházka for this one but based off of the first fight that they had man I think he has a really good chance because yes they're both going to switch up their styles for this one but it's not a crazy prediction to think that Jiří Procházka bashka will win this fight Alex Pereira is going to be more concerned for the takedowns Jiří Procházka might not shoot as many takedowns but I know for one thing what's going to happen Jiří Procházka's not going to come in as recklessly as he did before he will still apply that pressure he still will be unorthodox but when he has Alex Pereira hurt when he touches Alex Pereira he's not just going to rush in like he did last time and get caught and the ref herban for that fight will probably let it go on a lot longer until Jiří Procházka's completely out unlike last time so there won't be any controversy I think we're pretty safe in saying that however let me know your pics in the comment section down below don't forget to subscribe and like the content in order to support for us and also don't forget to check out my official predictions for EVENT_DETAILS we broke down the whole card so go ahead and check that out if you guys have the time after this one with that being said y'all stay safe stay blessed and I'll see you guys in the next one peace”
BR Broom picks Diego Lopes VALUE “I believe it's three rounds I'm actually going to check real quick one second um we're just going to take a quick look see here Pez versus uh how many rounds picks predictions odds over 2.5 draw this isn't helping me well why isn't this helping me um I don't even know if like Lopez is capable of going five rounds okay is Lopez versus Orga five rounds let breakdown um I'm just going to assume that I'm just going to assume that it's yeah this is I'm just going to assume that it's three rounds we'll see though we'll see um moving up we have the main event uh Michael Page and Conor McGregor um I don't know where Conor McGregor got that belt he hasn't owned one of those in years I this isn't funny I don't know why I thought that was funny to say in the moment I'm not cutting that out though cuz this one's not getting any editing cuz those that's what my short let go to now and this is one of the hardest fights I've ever predicted um this one I go back and forth with all the time uh and I think my prediction comes down to the simple matter of game planning and short notice both of these guys were signed on that Mouse is annoying me both of these guys were signed to fight each other for EVENT_DETAILS and EVENT_DETAILS they were going to be probably the main event over aisna versus dricus dupy which is an amazing fight by the way um still mad that it's happening but happy it is as well NOT_IN_ROSTER_18 is a man who thrives on an unwillingness to simply just not be that guy he's he's that guy Yuri perasa can be summed up as that guy and yes Alex per chindam as I predicted he in the second round I didn't say second round I thought it was going to be like the second or third but um Yuri NOT_IN_ROSTER_3 doesn't know what an adjustment is I don't think he's ever made an adjustment in his game he's still open to the leg kicks he's chaotic he still continually puts his hands down I think he's coming off of a lot of uh confidence build up after that rocket fight but Rockit doesn't hit like Alex Pereira does and I know everyone talks about it like ooh ah Alex Pereira stonan he hit hard Alex Pereira hits hard dude Alex Pereira hits you like a Mac Truck going 70 M an hour on the freeway like perea like Alex Pereira's power is actually just different and it's terrifying with a short left hook he lifted your he literally curon knocked Yuri off the ground out of his socks that's what he did with a short left hook after a right hand to get Yuri to lean that way as Yuri was pressuring him up against the fence that's terrifying power and I don't know if Yuri pahasa understands that he needs to not absorb the leg kicks and he needs to keep his hands up in this fight was Yuri doing well yes was Yuri pressuring uh Alex Pereira against the fence well yes was he Landing his own shots yes none of them seem to really rock or hurt Alex Pereira he always seemed coherent but at the same time like Landing those shots like they're going to accumulate especially when it's someone like Yuri prosk hitting you NOT_IN_ROSTER_3 hits hard that being said short notice also benefits Yuri prohaska it doesn't give Alex Paha a lot of time to really work over exactly what his game plan would be and for him to even heal up those broken toes that he had during the NOT_IN_ROSTER_12 fight um I this one's been hard but I just don't think NOT_IN_ROSTER_3 is going to do enough different to beat paa I I could he win absolutely do I think he's going to no I think he's going to get chin checked again and I think this time uh it's not going to be able to be considered an early stoppage I think he's going to land something bigger I think he's going to have slightly less respect for Yuri praska because again NOT_IN_ROSTER_19 does nothing different between his fights he he he doesn't know what he's going to do when he does it he's he's a man of mystery and I think the weasel like talked about this in his I he I have he hasn't made a prediction video so I'm not copying but his his video breakdown talking about the fact that how Alex Pereira can destroy NOT_IN_ROSTER_2 and he's absolutely right it's the it's just the fact that you have to be in there with Yuri to know how to fight Yuri you can't watch tape on him because you're not going to know how he's gonna do anything while he's there uh I think for pra he's has to stick with the body Jab um faking straights to open up the leg kick and I think that's going to be the bread and butter up until he he has Yuri hurt up against the fence I think he's going to have Yuri weak on his legs I I'm I'm predicting a really cold third round KO I think Yuri's not going to be tentative and I think that's going to be a mistake from Yuri because I think early on he's going to get clipped and I think he's not going to get finished but I think he's going to uh be much more tentative after that moment of almost getting put away a second time by the same man and I think that's going to allow Alex Pereira to start implementing a game plan of pushing Yuri back keeping him away uh Landing stiff hard damaging shots to the body to the to the lead leg to the to the face obviously the face but I think he's going to I think he's going to thrive off a jab and a uh a low kick I think that's really just per what Alex Pereira has to do do uh will Yuri Implement a stronger grappling game I think he absolutely can but that also we've seen how tired Yuri and labored Yuri can get in a five rounder which is is not insane like he doesn't gas out insanely bad in a five rounder but Alex paa doesn't really either and this isn't at elevation I don't think this is at elevation I think this is uh this is in Las Vegas I think right I don't know um I don't remember but I have Alex Pera win by third round knockout uh but I wouldn't be surprised if this goes either way um yeah yeah that's uh that's it that's uh that's all I got for EVENT_DETAILS let me know main card uh whole full card predictions are going to come out in a short via tomorrow I'm going to work on that a little bit but I I'm I'm working weird schedule and days fly by right now uh but the end of today will be the fin fin day that a that I am working a weird schedule so I should be able to go back to doing things a little bit more normally and and you know having a schedule for maybe some other releases which most of you don't care about but that's that's it that's all I got for you today get lost please thank you very much”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Lopes27-8
W Garcia KO/TKO · R2 Jun '26
L Volkanovski Decision · R5 Feb '26
W Silva KO/TKO · R2 Sep '25
L Volkanovski Decision · R5 Apr '25
W Ortega Decision · R3 Sep '24
Ige19-10
L Costa KO/TKO · R1 Feb '26
L Pitbull Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Woodson KO/TKO · R3 Apr '25
L Murphy Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Lopes Decision · R3 Jun '24