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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Moicano v Herbert Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus5 picks · conf 15/99
Moicano 2
3 Herbert
UW pick Moicano
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Moicano 20-7-1 VS 13-6-1 Herbert
5'11" height 6'1"
155 lb weight 156 lb
72" reach 77"
37 age 38
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.4 strikes landed / min 3.2
49% striking accuracy 42%
3.6 strikes absorbed / min 3.4
60% striking defence 52%
1.9 takedowns / 15 min 0.5
44% takedown accuracy 23%
72% takedown defence 59%
0.6 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Jai Herbert VALUE “pick change I rarely do him but as good as he looked at wein I picked deir hodzovic”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Jai Herbert VALUE “i'm riding Jai Herbert underdog play i think just the underdog bet straight is money on this fight”
CS Calf Kick Sports picks Jai Herbert “fight Jai Herbert versus Renato Moicano”
MW MMA Fight Picks - Aaron Weinbaum picks Jai Herbert “hannah mocano moving up to lightweight taking on Jai Herbert very interesting here”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Jai Herbert VALUE “i think he's going to beat Renato Moicano i think the rangier striker gets the win here i am going to go Jai Herbert i think Jai Herbert by a late second round knockout” $3.10
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Renato Moicano “i'm gonna take renato muy cano to show people this one is a mismatch” $1.40
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Renato Moicano “i think kanato is the better overall fighter”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Moicano20-7-1
W Duncan Submission · R2 Apr '26
L Dariush Decision · R3 Jun '25
L Makhachev Submission · R1 Jan '25
W Denis KO/TKO · R2 Sep '24
W Turner KO/TKO · R2 Apr '24
Herbert13-6-1
W Nallo KO/TKO · R1 Apr '26
L Padilla Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Bedoya Decision · R3 Aug '24
L Ziam Decision · R3 Jul '23
W Nelson Decision · R3 Jul '22