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Dumont vs SpencerMain Card · Women'S Featherweight
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Ramos vs AlgeoMain Card · Featherweight
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Hermansson vs ShahbazyanMain Card · Middleweight
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Rothwell vs BarnettPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
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Silva vs RodriguezPreliminary Card · Flyweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Vanderaa v Tafa
Heavyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Vanderaa 12-10
VS
7-5 Tafa
—
height
6'0"
—
weight
266 lb
—
reach
74"
34
age
32
Orthodox
stance
Southpaw
5.0
strikes landed / min
5.4
44%
striking accuracy
59%
5.7
strikes absorbed / min
2.3
45%
striking defence
55%
0.2
takedowns / 15 min
1.9
50%
takedown accuracy
43%
20%
takedown defence
52%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
1.9
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
WP
We Want Picks picks Jared Vanderaa VALUE
“i think Jared Vanderaa can win this fight”
We Want Picks picks Jared Vanderaa VALUE
“i think Jared Vanderaa can win this fight”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Justin Tafa
“knockout win for Justin Tafa i think he wins inside the distance here ko i think first or second round”
$2.10
MMA EXPERTS picks Justin Tafa
“knockout win for Justin Tafa i think he wins inside the distance here ko i think first or second round”
$2.10
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Jared Vanderaa
“i think it's extraordinarily unlikely here fight does not go the distance -225 i don't love it”
MMA EXPERTS picks Jared Vanderaa
“i think it's extraordinarily unlikely here fight does not go the distance -225 i don't love it”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Jared Vanderaa VALUE
“jared Jared Vanderaa 7200 heavyweight fight which automatically you got to play both sides but vandara i think he has a really significant advantage if he does get this fight down to the mat i've seen tafa taken down and he has absolutely nothing to offer on his back vandara has some really really good ground abound he's gonna have a six inch reach advantage a four inch height advantage black belt in bjj um so if he does get this down to the mat i think is a very good chance of winning and a very good chance of finishing as well so i gotta have some vendera 7200”
$73.00
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Jared Vanderaa VALUE
“jared Jared Vanderaa 7200 heavyweight fight which automatically you got to play both sides but vandara i think he has a really significant advantage if he does get this fight down to the mat i've seen tafa taken down and he has absolutely nothing to offer on his back vandara has some really really good ground abound he's gonna have a six inch reach advantage a four inch height advantage black belt in bjj um so if he does get this down to the mat i think is a very good chance of winning and a very good chance of finishing as well so i gotta have some vendera 7200”
$73.00
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Justin Tafa VALUE
“Justin Tafa 9 000 heavyweight fight good chance it ends in the first round so you got to play it um you know tafa tons of power we have seen vender knocked out before very good chin but still tafa does crack pretty hard if ander does not go to those takedowns if Jared Vanderaa does not get this down to the mat i do think toffen knocks him out um so i'm gonna have quite a bit of toffa”
$91.00
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Justin Tafa VALUE
“Justin Tafa 9 000 heavyweight fight good chance it ends in the first round so you got to play it um you know tafa tons of power we have seen vender knocked out before very good chin but still tafa does crack pretty hard if ander does not go to those takedowns if Jared Vanderaa does not get this down to the mat i do think toffen knocks him out um so i'm gonna have quite a bit of toffa”
$91.00
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Jared Vanderaa
“we're gonna see tafa sleep Jared Vanderaa in my opinion”
MMA EXPERTS picks Jared Vanderaa
“we're gonna see tafa sleep Jared Vanderaa in my opinion”
WM
Walk The Line MMA picks Justin Tafa
“Justin Tafa taking on Jared Vanderaa Justin Tafa coming off that split decision loss against carlos felipe”
Walk The Line MMA picks Justin Tafa
“Justin Tafa taking on Jared Vanderaa Justin Tafa coming off that split decision loss against carlos felipe”
WM
Walk The Line MMA picks Jared Vanderaa VALUE
“i think that Jared Vanderaa can win”
Walk The Line MMA picks Jared Vanderaa VALUE
“i think that Jared Vanderaa can win”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Vanderaa12-10
L
Cortes-Acosta
Oct '22
L
Sherman
Jul '22
L
Oleinik
Apr '22
L
Arlovski
Feb '22
L
Romanov
Oct '21
Tafa7-5
L
Teixeira
Feb '25
L
Williams
Mar '24
W
Lane
Sep '23
W
Porter
Feb '23
W
Hunsucker
Dec '21