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UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
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MD SO Dvalishvili vs O'MalleyMain Card · Bantamweight KH JP Harrison vs PeñaMain Card · Women'S Bantamweight KH VL Holland vs LuqueMain Card · Welterweight JP KG Pyfer vs GastelumMain Card · Middleweight JV BS Van vs SilvaPreliminary Card · Flyweight WC AS Cong vs SilvaEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight YJ JS Joo-sang vs SaragihEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight QS YA Salkilld vs AshmouzEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight MB PM Bautista vs MixMain Card · Bantamweight AM BR Murzakanov vs RibeiroPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight WC SS Cortes-Acosta vs SpivacPreliminary Card · Heavyweight AG KW Gustafsson vs WilliamsPreliminary Card · Welterweight MM MC Mederos vs ChoinskiEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE We back Mix over Bautista · Bantamweight Our fair value$1.54 Pinnacle pays above fair $1.61
Where to back Mix best price · region · EV vs fair $1.54
US BetOnline.ag $1.59 +4%
UK Paddy Power $1.57 +2%
EU Pinnacle $1.61 +5%
AU PlayUp $1.58 +3%
Consensus93 picks · conf 82/99
Bautista 27
66 Mix
BITCHM pick Bautista
How it endsmethod calls · Mix · crowd line
KO/TKO 6 $12.79
Submission 26 $2.95
Decision 18 $4.26
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Bautista 16-3 VS 20-3 Mix
5'9" height 5'11"
135 lb weight 136 lb
69" reach 70"
33 age 32
Switch stance Southpaw
5.3 strikes landed / min 3.5
47% striking accuracy 55%
3.9 strikes absorbed / min 4.7
54% striking defence 70%
1.9 takedowns / 15 min 2.8
33% takedown accuracy 36%
66% takedown defence 74%
0.9 submissions / 15 min 0.2
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market65% vs 62%
Consensus66 of 93 analysts
Sharpest angleMix by Submission — 26 of 50 method calls
Recommendation Back Mix @ $1.61 · fair $1.54 +5% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
BU BunkyMMA picks Patchy Mix VALUE “I'm taking Chaos Williams. I'm taking Spivac. I'm taking Mzakanov. I'm taking Joshua Van. ... Patchy Mix is an absolute killer. Decision submission KO submission. ... I think he's going to show levels. I think he's going to become one of the best bantamweights in the world.”
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Patchy Mix VALUE “I'm going to take Patchy Mix. I'm going to say by decision.”
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Mario Bautista VALUE “I think Mario Bautista has more than a bit of wrestler, but he doesn't know that he was going to be wild to strike against a grappler ... I'm going to take Mario Bautista.”
PG PHX Fight Garage picks Mario Bautista “My parlay. Merab Dvalishvili, Kayla Harrison, Joe Pyfer, Mario Bautista, Mario Bautista, and Kevin Holland.”
MD mdminds picks Mario Bautista VALUE $2.44
JC Jxcob CLASH picks Patchy Mix VALUE “I think Patchy Patchy Mix is going to win this fight even though he's coming from Bellator... Overall, I think Patchy Patchy Mix is more well-rounded and think he'll get it done by decision.” $1.56
TA TakeDownTalks picks Patchy Mix VALUE “Give me Patchy Mix by submission or decision”
TS The Open Mat Show picks Patchy Mix VALUE “I like Patchy Mix a lot, on Patchy Mix in his UFC debut”
KU Kunath picks Patchy Mix VALUE “I think Patchy Mix mixes him up.”
VI Vicious421 picks Mario Bautista “I'm going to go with Mario Bautista”
BG Bradley Gleason picks Mario Bautista “don't hate Mario Bautista money That's what I have.”
JR Juan More Round picks Patchy Mix “I think I'm the only one taking Patchy Mix on this one. I think he wins.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Bautista16-3
W Oliveira Submission · R2 Feb '26
L Nurmagomedov Decision · R3 Oct '25
W Mix Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Aldo Decision · R3 Oct '24
W Simón Decision · R3 Jan '24
Mix20-3
L Wikłacz Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Bautista Decision · R3 Jun '25