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UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
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TA CG Aspinall vs GaneMain Card · Heavyweight VJ MD Jandiroba vs DernMain Card · Women'S Strawweight UN MB Nurmagomedov vs BautistaMain Card · Bantamweight AV JA Volkov vs AlmeidaMain Card · Heavyweight AR AM Rakić vs MurzakanovMain Card · Light Heavyweight ĽK MR Klein vs RębeckiPreliminary Card · Lightweight IA PJ Aliskerov vs Jun-yongPreliminary Card · Middleweight NW JD Wood vs DelgadoPreliminary Card · Catchweight HA CB Abdelwahab vs BarnettPreliminary Card · Heavyweight AM MR Maksum vs RaposoPreliminary Card · Catchweight JA MI Amorim vs InouePreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight NH QS Haqparast vs SalkilldPreliminary Card · Lightweight VW LS Walker vs SutherlandPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE We back Bautista over Nurmagomedov · Bantamweight Our fair value$5.44 1xBet pays above fair $6.10
Where to back Bautista best price · region · EV vs fair $5.44
US Caesars $6.00 +10%
UK Unibet (UK) $5.75 +6%
EU 1xBet $6.10 +12%
AU SportsBet $5.75 +6%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $5.26
Consensus237 picks · conf 99/99
Nurmagomedov 185
52 Bautista
DCHMBH pick Nurmagomedov
How it endsmethod calls · Bautista · crowd line
Decision 1 $5.44
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Nurmagomedov 19-1 VS 16-3 Bautista
5'8" height 5'9"
136 lb weight 135 lb
69" reach 69"
30 age 33
Orthodox stance Switch
4.5 strikes landed / min 5.3
63% striking accuracy 47%
1.4 strikes absorbed / min 3.9
63% striking defence 54%
4.0 takedowns / 15 min 1.9
50% takedown accuracy 33%
100% takedown defence 66%
0.4 submissions / 15 min 0.9
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market18% vs 16%
Consensus52 of 237 analysts
Sharpest angleBautista by Decision — 1 of 1 method calls
Recommendation Back Bautista @ $6.10 · fair $5.44 +12% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Mario Bautista VALUE
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Mario Bautista VALUE “I just wanted to pick Alexander Rakia by United as decision”
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Umar Nurmagomedov VALUE “I'm going choose Omar ... by submission round number two”
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Umar Nurmagomedov “Umar Nurmagomedov at 9600 taking on Mario Bautista”
GM GLO MMA picks Umar Nurmagomedov VALUE “I feel like he's by decision”
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Umar Nurmagomedov VALUE “I think NOT_IN_ROSTER_7 is a different beast... I think Mario Bautista is going to be fighting NOT_IN_ROSTER_10 after this fight.”
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Mario Bautista VALUE “I'm all over the spread here... I think NOT_IN_ROSTER_1 should get this done. Let's go. Speak Polish, too. We never going against him.”
MC McManusMMA picks Umar Nurmagomedov “This is gonna be unanimous decision. and Umar Nurmagomedov just decision. and Umar Nurmagomedov just dragging Mario Bautista around the arena... So, yeah, I'm going easy Umar Nurmagomedov domination against Mario Bautista.”
FF Frozen Fists picks Umar Nurmagomedov VALUE “I think Umar Nurmagomedov by decision. I think that's just the safe way to go.”
_O _Octagon_Insights_ picks Mario Bautista “I'm going to go with Mario Bautista by decision or knockout.”
KS Kenny White Sports picks Umar Nurmagomedov “I don't think he's at the level of Umar Nurmagomedov.”
AF Alex Talks Fights picks Umar Nurmagomedov “Obviously, I'm going Nurmagamedov in this fight. ... third round stoppage for Umar Nurmagomedov.” $1.14
Recent form last five, most recent first
Nurmagomedov19-1
W Figueiredo Decision · R3 Jan '26
W Bautista Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Dvalishvili Decision · R5 Jan '25
W Sandhagen Decision · R5 Aug '24
W Almakhan Decision · R3 Mar '24
Bautista16-3
W Oliveira Submission · R2 Feb '26
L Nurmagomedov Decision · R3 Oct '25
W Mix Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Aldo Decision · R3 Oct '24
W Simón Decision · R3 Jan '24