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UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues
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JC GR Cannonier vs RodriguesMain Card · Middleweight YZ CK Zalal vs KattarMain Card · Featherweight ES DB Shahbazyan vs BudkaMain Card · Middleweight NS IB Sadykhov vs BonfimMain Card · Lightweight AP RV Petroski vs VieiraMain Card · Middleweight JD CM Delgado vs MatthewsPreliminary Card · Featherweight AH KS Hill vs SouzaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight RE JA Estevam vs AguilarPreliminary Card · Flyweight GB KW Bonfim vs WilliamsPreliminary Card · Welterweight ES VM Smith vs MoralesPreliminary Card · Bantamweight VW DM Walker vs MayesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight JC JA Cavalcanti vs AvilaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
BEST PRICE We back Rodrigues over Cannonier · Middleweight Our fair value$1.42 Paddy Power pays above fair $1.44
Where to back Rodrigues best price · region · EV vs fair $1.42
US FanDuel $1.44 +2%
UK Paddy Power $1.44 +2%
EU Pinnacle $1.42 +0%
AU TAB $1.43 +1%
Consensus85 picks · conf 80/99
Cannonier 20
65 Rodrigues
9TBTAm pick Cannonier
How it endsmethod calls · Rodrigues · crowd line
KO/TKO 49 $1.79
Submission 7 $12.54
Decision 4 $21.94
None 2 $43.88
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Cannonier 17-8 VS 18-6 Rodrigues
5'11" height 6'3"
186 lb weight 186 lb
78" reach 75"
42 age 34
Switch stance Orthodox
4.5 strikes landed / min 5.5
50% striking accuracy 56%
4.4 strikes absorbed / min 4.7
56% striking defence 51%
0.4 takedowns / 15 min 2.7
46% takedown accuracy 41%
62% takedown defence 100%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.4
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market71% vs 69%
Consensus65 of 85 analysts
Sharpest angleRodrigues by KO/TKO — 49 of 62 method calls
Recommendation Back Rodrigues @ $1.44 · fair $1.42 +2% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
GM GLO MMA picks Gregory Rodrigues VALUE “I'm picking Jacqueline because she's the younger fighter she's you know I mean that's pretty much it she's got more experience she's got a little bit more uh a lot more finishes couple submissions so uh I could see Julia getting it based on the fact that she has more experience but I'm going to go ahead and pick the younger fighter jacn calican”
GM GLO MMA picks Jared Cannonier VALUE “Jared Cannonier NOT_IN_ROSTER_23 is a [__] Jack Brazilian dude like I'm not going to lie like he is a [__] He's jacked got what it takes to win if he could but I don't see later this goes on I don't think Robo copin”
TD The Rambling Dad picks Gregory Rodrigues VALUE $1.42
TD The Rambling Dad picks Jared Cannonier VALUE $1.42
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Gregory Rodrigues “I'm going with Gregory Rodrigues” $1.43
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Gregory Rodrigues “my pick has been Gregory RoboCop Rodriguez all week” $1.43
IF Inside Fighting picks Jared Cannonier VALUE “at plus 185 you're getting awesome odds to bet on a guy that was just fighting for a title two years ago and against Gregory Rodrigues Rodrigues who's never fought anybody of this caliber” $2.85
IF Inside Fighting picks Gregory Rodrigues “I'm going with Gregory Rodrigues just because he's the favorite”
LI LisandroUFC picks Gregory Rodrigues “entendemos que se va a quedar con la pelea principal el señor gregory gregory Rodríguez”
MP MMA Pros Pick picks Gregory Rodrigues “Gregory Rodrigues first pick of the night is Gregory Rodrigues”
MN MMA Lock of the Night picks Gregory Rodrigues VALUE “I got to go Gregory Rodrigues Rodrigues and I do think he is chalkworthy in this spot” $1.45
AM AA MMA picks Jared Cannonier “I'm going go with caner I think he's going I think this is like do or die for him so he's going to put everything on the line”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Cannonier17-8
L Page Decision · R3 Aug '25
W Rodrigues KO/TKO · R4 Feb '25
L Borralho Decision · R5 Aug '24
L Imavov KO/TKO · R4 Jun '24
W Vettori Decision · R5 Jun '23
Rodrigues18-6
W Ferreira KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
W Kopylov Decision · R3 Nov '25
W Hermansson KO/TKO · R1 Jun '25
L Cannonier KO/TKO · R4 Feb '25
W Duncan Decision · R3 Jul '24