Rafael Estevam vs Jesús Santos Aguilar · Fight IQ

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues

Choose a fight to analyse

Cannonier vs RodriguesMain Card · Middleweight YZ

Zalal vs KattarMain Card · Featherweight ES

Shahbazyan vs BudkaMain Card · Middleweight NS

Sadykhov vs BonfimMain Card · Lightweight AP

Petroski vs VieiraMain Card · Middleweight JD

Delgado vs MatthewsPreliminary Card · Featherweight AH

Hill vs SouzaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight RE

Estevam vs AguilarPreliminary Card · Flyweight GB

Bonfim vs WilliamsPreliminary Card · Welterweight ES

Smith vs MoralesPreliminary Card · Bantamweight VW

Walker vs MayesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight JC

Cavalcanti vs AvilaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight

BEST PRICE We back Estevam over Santos Aguilar · Flyweight Our fair value$1.23 Betway

pays above fair $1.25

Where to back Estevam best price · region · EV vs fair $1.23

BetOnline.ag $1.22 -1%

Betway $1.25 +1%

Coolbet $1.22 -1%

Ladbrokes AU $1.22 -1%

Consensus48 picks · conf 68/99

Estevam 40

8 Santos Aguilar

pick Estevam

How it endsmethod calls · Estevam · crowd line

KO/TKO 4 $8.94

Submission 7 $5.11

Decision 15 $2.39

Draw 1 $35.78

None 2 $17.89

Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side

Estevam 14-0 VS 12-4 Santos Aguilar

5'8" height 5'4"

135 lb weight 125 lb

69" reach 63"

29 age 30

Orthodox stance Orthodox

2.9 strikes landed / min 5.3

64% striking accuracy 50%

3.4 strikes absorbed / min 2.6

34% striking defence 48%

3.4 takedowns / 15 min 3.0

19% takedown accuracy 29%

0% takedown defence 53%

0.7 submissions / 15 min 1.0

AI analysis

Deep research · camps & rumours

Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.

What the numbers say

Model vs market81% vs 80%

Consensus40 of 48 analysts

Sharpest angleEstevam by Decision — 15 of 29 method calls

Recommendation Back Estevam @ $1.25 · fair $1.23 +1% EDGE

Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight

GLO MMA picks Rafael Estevam VALUE “I'm picking Rafael Estevam just because like he's the bigger guy and I don't like Jesús Santos Aguilar's boxing all he has is grappling”

The Rambling Dad picks Rafael Estevam VALUE $1.20

MMA Pros Pick picks Rafael Estevam “I'm picking estan to take a victory in this fight”

MMA Lock of the Night picks Rafael Estevam VALUE “I believe Rafael Estevam is chalkworthy in this spot but you luckily have good hedging opportunities on the Jesús Santos Aguilar side should you look to go that route I do like Jesús Santos Aguilar by submission in round three around that plus 3,800 line if I'm not mistaken but reCalvin Kattardless I believe Rafael Estevam wins this Don'Tale Mayestchup and I think he is parlay worthy” $1.22

AA MMA picks Rafael Estevam “I Think Jesus is going to get it I'm a big fan of his he's been making a lot of noise in the division having a lot of good finishes”

AA MMA picks Jesús Santos Aguilar “voy por ti harnos orgullosos de ser mexiEVENT_DETAILSos tenes la sangre somos guerreros no me falles Vamos pues tenemos a Rafael Estevam contra Jesús Santos Aguilar Jesús yo te estimo demasiado Yo te estoy viendo por unos años ya y me enEVENT_DETAILSta ver que cada vez que peleas haces algo interesante”

AA MMA picks Rafael Estevam “tenemos a Rafael Estevam contra Jesús Santos Aguilar”

Script MMA picks Rafael Estevam VALUE “last leg on the three leg is Rafael Estevam eston undefeated fighter versing Jesús Santos Aguilar Santos Aguilar I you why do you have Rafael Estevam Jesús Santos Aguilar Santos Aguilar why do you think he's a solid fighter solid fighter well I mean his debut he had 9 Minutes of control time shot 22 takedowns 22 takedowns I don't think that's like Mor Rob numbers I don't think people know how crazy that is 22 take 11 takedowns is a lot I don't care how many he completed yeah he shot 22 that's unlimited cardio yeah that's un that's like Mor Rob that's like Mor Rob shoo completed three but still even though they listen I can shoot 22 times if I get three and I'm controlling you 9 minutes that's annoying actually some guy was just trying to hug you yeah it is annoying it is kind of boring but it's like it's good for the parties you want to make some money you got to go yeah we got to go we got to go that way got to go that way you know what I'm saying also he has a 6 and a half reach advantage on top of that 4 in height Advantage oh damn Jes how tall is Jesús Santos Aguilar Santos Aguilar damn oh [ __ ] 54 wait what division is this flyweight 54 so how tall is Rafael Estevam holy [ __ ] Bro 58 damn he's pretty B9 reach Man 6 bro 69 reach 5'8 at flyweight and he's a Grappler rafhael is a lock Yousef Z edmon shabaz and Rafa ston lock it in that is a three like”