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UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo
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PY DF Yan vs FigueiredoMain Card · Bantamweight YX TR Xiaonan vs RicciMain Card · Women'S Strawweight MS SK Salikhov vs KenanMain Card · Welterweight GF WC Fernandes vs CongMain Card · Women'S Flyweight CU VO Ulberg vs OezdemirMain Card · Light Heavyweight ZM OD Mingyang vs DiazMain Card · Light Heavyweight YS BJ Su-young vs JieleyisiPreliminary Card · Bantamweight CD KS Dong-hun vs SahotaPreliminary Card · Flyweight SM FX Ming vs XiaocanPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight CH NT Hernandez vs TumendemberelPreliminary Card · Flyweight LK JO Kavanagh vs OchoaPreliminary Card · Flyweight XL QL Long vs LePreliminary Card · Bantamweight NM MH Motta vs HayisaerPreliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE We back Hernandez over Tumendemberel · Flyweight Our fair value$1.56 Caesars pays above fair $1.67
Where to back Hernandez best price · region · EV vs fair $1.56
US Caesars $1.67 +7%
UK LiveScore Bet $1.55 -1%
EU Pinnacle $1.60 +2%
AU Neds $1.62 +4%
Consensus23 picks · conf 47/99
Hernandez 16
7 Tumendemberel
BCMTMM pick Hernandez
How it endsmethod calls · Hernandez · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $10.95
Submission 3 $3.65
Decision 3 $3.65
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Hernandez 10-5 VS 8-1 Tumendemberel
5'8" height 5'7"
126 lb weight 125 lb
67" reach 71"
32 age 28
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.9 strikes landed / min 3.1
45% striking accuracy 38%
3.4 strikes absorbed / min 3.3
50% striking defence 51%
1.6 takedowns / 15 min 2.4
21% takedown accuracy 31%
67% takedown defence 52%
0.2 submissions / 15 min 2.4
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market64% vs 60%
Consensus16 of 23 analysts
Sharpest angleHernandez by Submission — 3 of 7 method calls
Recommendation Back Hernandez @ $1.67 · fair $1.56 +7% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
AM Artem MMA picks Carlos Hernandez “I thought that Carlos Hernandez won but I did pick Carlos Hernandez”
MJ MMA JOEY picks Carlos Hernandez “Carlos Hernandez gets the split decision”
HP Hayjive Picks picks Nyamjargal Tumendemberel VALUE “he's facing a guy in Nyamjargal Tumendemberel who's just all gas no breaks he's going to be throwing wild stuff at you from the jump so I think there's upside for an early finish in this fight”
MN Mayo Media Network picks Carlos Hernandez “I definitely favor Carlos Carlos Hernandez to win this fight”
CM Coty MMA picks Carlos Hernandez “the pick is Carlos Carlos Hernandez I just think he's you know if he survives the early onslaught”
HS Helen Yee Sports picks Carlos Hernandez “Я представляю что Я доминирую контролирую и в нужный момент делаю всё возможное чтобы победить”
TP Tony's Picks picks Nyamjargal Tumendemberel VALUE “LVolkan Oezdemirne'er Kavanagh taking Volkan Oezdemirn JVolkan OezdemirSong Kenane OchVolkan Oezdemira”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Carlos Hernandez “I'm going to stick with Carlos Hernandez” $1.55
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Nyamjargal Tumendemberel VALUE “I've been picking Balan Jal Isa to win” $2.43
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Carlos Hernandez VALUE “you locks Carlos Carlos Hernandez I think he probably beats two men Dumbo”
GM Green Bets MMA picks Carlos Hernandez “nyang jangal tar Bol yeah that was probably an insult to his name there but I'm going to go with him he's an undefeated fighter obviously Carlos Hernandez yeah he is he is actually decent and obviously he has the UFC experience where Nyamjargal Tumendemberel does not but he is an undefeated guy he does hold good power and yeah I just think he has a chance and he is a deadly guy on the ground too like if he gets you on the ground submits you he's angry bad man”
BO Botmfeeder picks Carlos Hernandez VALUE “I think Carlos is a little bit more experienced I think he's better I think he's fought really really high level guys and I think naam yal is not the guy that's going to be able to take out a Carlos Hernandez who's been fighting rura uh Tatsu Rara all these high level guys coming from Asia and you have another one that they're trying to feed to him I think Carlos hernandz knows better I think he's been training for at minus 185 even though he's N9 and4 don't let the record fool you” $1.54
Recent form last five, most recent first
Hernandez10-5
L Hyun-sung Submission · R1 May '25
W Tumendemberel Decision · R3 Nov '24
L Tsuruya Decision · R3 Jun '24
L Taira KO/TKO · R2 Dec '23
W Bondar Decision · R3 Jun '23
Tumendemberel8-1
W Durden Decision · R3 Mar '26
L Hernandez Decision · R3 Nov '24