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BEST PRICE
We back
Kavanagh
over Ochoa · Flyweight
Our fair value$1.28
pays above fair
$1.30
Best prices · Kavanagh
BetUS · US
$1.29
Virgin Bet · UK
$1.27
Pinnacle · EU
$1.29
PointsBet (AU) · AU
$1.30
Where to back Kavanagh
best price · region · EV vs fair $1.28
US
BetUS
$1.29
+1%
BetUS
$1.29
+1%
UK
Virgin Bet
$1.27
-0%
Virgin Bet
$1.27
-0%
EU
Pinnacle
$1.29
+1%
Pinnacle
$1.29
+1%
AU
PointsBet (AU)
$1.30
+2%
PointsBet (AU)
$1.30
+2%
How it endsmethod calls · Kavanagh · crowd line
KO/TKO
16
$1.60
Submission
1
$25.54
Decision
3
$8.51
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Kavanagh 9-1
VS
8-2 Ochoa
5'6"
height
5'7"
126 lb
weight
125 lb
67"
reach
67"
27
age
25
Orthodox
stance
Southpaw
3.1
strikes landed / min
3.3
50%
striking accuracy
31%
2.6
strikes absorbed / min
3.4
54%
striking defence
59%
1.0
takedowns / 15 min
0.0
40%
takedown accuracy
0%
82%
takedown defence
100%
0.4
submissions / 15 min
1.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market78% vs 77%
Consensus23 of 28 analysts
Sharpest angleKavanagh by KO/TKO — 16 of 20 method calls
Recommendation
Back Kavanagh @ $1.30 · fair $1.28
+2% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
AM
Artem MMA picks Lone'er Kavanagh
“I did think that he won the fight and he did get the decision in this one”
Artem MMA picks Lone'er Kavanagh
“I did think that he won the fight and he did get the decision in this one”
MJ
MMA JOEY picks Lone'er Kavanagh
“unanimous decision win for Looney Lone'er Kavanagh”
MMA JOEY picks Lone'er Kavanagh
“unanimous decision win for Looney Lone'er Kavanagh”
TA
TakeDownTalks picks Jose Ochoa VALUE
“I'm picking Kavanagh to win”
TakeDownTalks picks Jose Ochoa VALUE
“I'm picking Kavanagh to win”
HM
HorseBeef MMA picks Lone'er Kavanagh
“long Xiao versus Lone'er Lone'er Kavanaghgh this is a pretty cool fight to but I'm picking long Xiao”
HorseBeef MMA picks Lone'er Kavanagh
“long Xiao versus Lone'er Lone'er Kavanaghgh this is a pretty cool fight to but I'm picking long Xiao”
EM
El Reino de las MMA picks Jose Ochoa
“straight punch that is useful well he landed a big knockout in the previous round and you can just tell his confidence is grown for here his confidence is through the roof as it should be he doing a great job right now of Landing strikes”
El Reino de las MMA picks Jose Ochoa
“straight punch that is useful well he landed a big knockout in the previous round and you can just tell his confidence is grown for here his confidence is through the roof as it should be he doing a great job right now of Landing strikes”
UG
UFC BETTING GOATS picks Lone'er Kavanagh VALUE
“I'm picking Lone'er Kavanagh his speed is just too much”
UFC BETTING GOATS picks Lone'er Kavanagh VALUE
“I'm picking Lone'er Kavanagh his speed is just too much”
GM
Green Bets MMA picks Lone'er Kavanagh VALUE
“uh Lone'er Kavanagh I think these odds are a little bit wide cuz you know he's taking on somebody like Jose Ochoaose Ochoa who is undefeated I just think the difference here is going to be the speed of loner all right his hand speed is unreal he has some of the cleanest Knockouts there are just in out in out with one twos and it just knocks out people he's very impressive and I'm very excited to see this fight to see actually how good he is against obviously just a tough guy like Jose Ochoaose Ochoa who who does train out of the um the shoter Box gyms in Brazil so with Charles Alber that kind of style so if he throws anything and everything that kind of thing but I just think he's going to get hit too much and you cannot get hit by somebody like loner he has great power too uh then everybody's favorite Wang Cong so the Jose Ochoaoker we all know who Wang Cong is she obviously had that impressive knockout that's not really her style but she is a very impressive Striker and obviously a very impressive kickboxer there any amount of research will tell you that she beat obviously Valentino shevchenko so the champion of that division you know Wang is just a she's a pretty straightforward pick here Gabriella Fernandes is not going to be the better striker in this and she doesn't really have a threat of takedown so it does make sense why the odds are there I don't know what I want to do with it yet because again the odds are getting kind of Out Of Reach to make any money with them uh especially cuz she is semi untested within the whole MMA sphere so I don't know we'll see but I think she is a pretty straightforward lock there and then next Underdog time Nikolas Motta I don't really have the greatest breakdown on this one cuz honestly I could see either guy winning it's just I just have a feeling that Nikolas Motta got this I think he holds big Power he's Brazilian so he's got like grit in him in a sense and yeah he can take it Dage to the ground if he wanted to obviously Mash mash I just there's something about him I just don't like okay he's he is good he does have the length uh Advantage here and you know he can hold in the strike and he's tough all that kind of stuff has decent power it's just he takes you know people like subpar to decisions and it's just like why why are you doing you know do more you're taking Gabriel Benitez to a decision you should be finishing him and I honestly I think if you put Mota in front of bonitz not is going to finish him so I like M he finished Tom Nolan too who obviously Tom Nolan is a prospect at one point in time he just obviously just has a chin issue as well but that's beside the point getting a little bit sidetracked uh Quang Le taking on Long Jose Ochoa Quang Le can win this you know which is the reason why he is in the underdog pick reason being he he does have the forward pressure he throws a lot of strikes he throws a lot of kicks that kind of style and he just constantly moving forward I'm personally on the Feng Xiaocan side because you know if you're moving forward the takedowns are going to be there and I think longa is going to get the takedowns and just control the fight probably to a decision so Lang Quang Le obviously if he lands a lucky punch buff stops the takedown so he is going to be the better Striker so he definitely does have a way to win I just don't think it's G to happen but it's definitely a possibility which is why the odds are closed there and then next I don't even know how I'm going to say this nyang jangal tar Bol yeah that was probably an insult to his name there but I'm going to go with him he's an undefeated fighter obviously Carlos Hernandez yeah he is he is actually decent and obviously he has the UFC experience where Nyamjargal Tumendemberel does not but he is an undefeated guy he does hold good power and yeah I just think he has a chance and he is a deadly guy on the ground too like if he gets you on the ground submits you he's angry bad man let's just move on to the prop bets here Petr Yan is up it's just how he's going to win the fight's not going to go to the distance so obviously explains the negative -200 there Petr Yan I'm on his side I think KO or decision uh Deiveson Figueiredo obviously could find a way to win I think if he does win it is going to be a decision but he's cardio we still don't know how he's going to look in the later rounds and we know Petr Yan can go there and obviously find great success uh Kong Wang she's e going to knock out Gabriel or she's going to be tough and get a decision so I like that bet there Carlos Ulberg I'm on his side for that fight honestly you could pick either guy by KO and you probably have a good chance uh Lone'er Kavanagh same thing I think he's going to either Knock Out Jose Ochoaose because the hand speed or good back and forth but squeak out a decision and then Feng Xiaocan if he gets it to the ground I can see a sub coming or or if not he's going to tough it out get the ground control and just get a nice little decision uh favorite time let's move on to the parlays parlays the three parlays at the top there my bread and butter okay we don't lose these we have the green bets parlay it's lock City it's G to hit I'm pretty high on Yan Xiaonan xiaan I think Richie is an okay fighter she has great like clinch work but that's it Yan Xiaonan uh Yan Xiaonan so I'm getting the names mixed up Yan Xiaonan she took uh way Le to a decision and she had great moments in that fight she fights like a top Contender she probably will be the champion once way Quang Le ages out so I'm going Yan I'm pretty confident on her and then Fang Xiao Kang Fen uh another name that you might not kind of really know but the takedowns are going to be there for her and I just think she's the better fighter than Shi Ming who I think has a lot of stuff to work on Shi Ming is also 30 uh I like the bigger girl in this which is going to be Fang Shak Kang or however you say her name so log City negative 110 love to see it Nikolas Motta and Feng Xiaocan I have a thing where I can pick the first two fights 100% of the time 90% of the time okay so mola he's my pick just got feeling it could go mash though and then Feng Xiaocan could go Quang l so honestly really risky for that one so I'd probably stay away if I was you but I'm just going to put it on there cuz that's my thing uh plus three 53 we did hit a pretty juice one last weekend with Nikolas Motta and Elliot a plus 186 so so great value there uh but this one a little bit more riskier and then the round line parlay Tabatha Ricci Yan Xiaonan and Feng Xiaocan and Quang Le if long can get the takedowns it's definitely going over one and a half uh so I'm on the favor of definitely doing this one at one and a half parlay kind of thing for all three fights if you want you want to get some more value definitely go the uh the two and a half there I honestly I think all three of them are going to hit so I'm think I might sprinkle a little bit on both actually next is just the two like parlay pyan and yang Jose Ochoaanan so two Yan parlay uh this seems to be the parlay of the week for pretty much everybody and I'm on it I think it's going to hit so let's see how that one goes and then next Feng Xiaocan and Wang Cong uh thing pretty confident in her I think she's going to get takedowns and Kong Wang the value is kind of Gone But The Knockout should be there for her uh and then the next parlay we got is Jose Ochoa same thing knockout Carlos Ulberg same thing knockout so throw them together netive 122 Great Value so that was the video guys like And subscribe if you liked it of course and yeah I'll see you guys next time and hopefully we make some money this weekend I'm tired of this one week losing streak we are on a heater we're going three weeks in a w in a w three weeks in a row making money and we kind of a little set back but you know slingshot Theory you got to go back a little bit to propel yourself forward so that was the video guys let's make some money”
Green Bets MMA picks Lone'er Kavanagh VALUE
“uh Lone'er Kavanagh I think these odds are a little bit wide cuz you know he's taking on somebody like Jose Ochoaose Ochoa who is undefeated I just think the difference here is going to be the speed of loner all right his hand speed is unreal he has some of the cleanest Knockouts there are just in out in out with one twos and it just knocks out people he's very impressive and I'm very excited to see this fight to see actually how good he is against obviously just a tough guy like Jose Ochoaose Ochoa who who does train out of the um the shoter Box gyms in Brazil so with Charles Alber that kind of style so if he throws anything and everything that kind of thing but I just think he's going to get hit too much and you cannot get hit by somebody like loner he has great power too uh then everybody's favorite Wang Cong so the Jose Ochoaoker we all know who Wang Cong is she obviously had that impressive knockout that's not really her style but she is a very impressive Striker and obviously a very impressive kickboxer there any amount of research will tell you that she beat obviously Valentino shevchenko so the champion of that division you know Wang is just a she's a pretty straightforward pick here Gabriella Fernandes is not going to be the better striker in this and she doesn't really have a threat of takedown so it does make sense why the odds are there I don't know what I want to do with it yet because again the odds are getting kind of Out Of Reach to make any money with them uh especially cuz she is semi untested within the whole MMA sphere so I don't know we'll see but I think she is a pretty straightforward lock there and then next Underdog time Nikolas Motta I don't really have the greatest breakdown on this one cuz honestly I could see either guy winning it's just I just have a feeling that Nikolas Motta got this I think he holds big Power he's Brazilian so he's got like grit in him in a sense and yeah he can take it Dage to the ground if he wanted to obviously Mash mash I just there's something about him I just don't like okay he's he is good he does have the length uh Advantage here and you know he can hold in the strike and he's tough all that kind of stuff has decent power it's just he takes you know people like subpar to decisions and it's just like why why are you doing you know do more you're taking Gabriel Benitez to a decision you should be finishing him and I honestly I think if you put Mota in front of bonitz not is going to finish him so I like M he finished Tom Nolan too who obviously Tom Nolan is a prospect at one point in time he just obviously just has a chin issue as well but that's beside the point getting a little bit sidetracked uh Quang Le taking on Long Jose Ochoa Quang Le can win this you know which is the reason why he is in the underdog pick reason being he he does have the forward pressure he throws a lot of strikes he throws a lot of kicks that kind of style and he just constantly moving forward I'm personally on the Feng Xiaocan side because you know if you're moving forward the takedowns are going to be there and I think longa is going to get the takedowns and just control the fight probably to a decision so Lang Quang Le obviously if he lands a lucky punch buff stops the takedown so he is going to be the better Striker so he definitely does have a way to win I just don't think it's G to happen but it's definitely a possibility which is why the odds are closed there and then next I don't even know how I'm going to say this nyang jangal tar Bol yeah that was probably an insult to his name there but I'm going to go with him he's an undefeated fighter obviously Carlos Hernandez yeah he is he is actually decent and obviously he has the UFC experience where Nyamjargal Tumendemberel does not but he is an undefeated guy he does hold good power and yeah I just think he has a chance and he is a deadly guy on the ground too like if he gets you on the ground submits you he's angry bad man let's just move on to the prop bets here Petr Yan is up it's just how he's going to win the fight's not going to go to the distance so obviously explains the negative -200 there Petr Yan I'm on his side I think KO or decision uh Deiveson Figueiredo obviously could find a way to win I think if he does win it is going to be a decision but he's cardio we still don't know how he's going to look in the later rounds and we know Petr Yan can go there and obviously find great success uh Kong Wang she's e going to knock out Gabriel or she's going to be tough and get a decision so I like that bet there Carlos Ulberg I'm on his side for that fight honestly you could pick either guy by KO and you probably have a good chance uh Lone'er Kavanagh same thing I think he's going to either Knock Out Jose Ochoaose because the hand speed or good back and forth but squeak out a decision and then Feng Xiaocan if he gets it to the ground I can see a sub coming or or if not he's going to tough it out get the ground control and just get a nice little decision uh favorite time let's move on to the parlays parlays the three parlays at the top there my bread and butter okay we don't lose these we have the green bets parlay it's lock City it's G to hit I'm pretty high on Yan Xiaonan xiaan I think Richie is an okay fighter she has great like clinch work but that's it Yan Xiaonan uh Yan Xiaonan so I'm getting the names mixed up Yan Xiaonan she took uh way Le to a decision and she had great moments in that fight she fights like a top Contender she probably will be the champion once way Quang Le ages out so I'm going Yan I'm pretty confident on her and then Fang Xiao Kang Fen uh another name that you might not kind of really know but the takedowns are going to be there for her and I just think she's the better fighter than Shi Ming who I think has a lot of stuff to work on Shi Ming is also 30 uh I like the bigger girl in this which is going to be Fang Shak Kang or however you say her name so log City negative 110 love to see it Nikolas Motta and Feng Xiaocan I have a thing where I can pick the first two fights 100% of the time 90% of the time okay so mola he's my pick just got feeling it could go mash though and then Feng Xiaocan could go Quang l so honestly really risky for that one so I'd probably stay away if I was you but I'm just going to put it on there cuz that's my thing uh plus three 53 we did hit a pretty juice one last weekend with Nikolas Motta and Elliot a plus 186 so so great value there uh but this one a little bit more riskier and then the round line parlay Tabatha Ricci Yan Xiaonan and Feng Xiaocan and Quang Le if long can get the takedowns it's definitely going over one and a half uh so I'm on the favor of definitely doing this one at one and a half parlay kind of thing for all three fights if you want you want to get some more value definitely go the uh the two and a half there I honestly I think all three of them are going to hit so I'm think I might sprinkle a little bit on both actually next is just the two like parlay pyan and yang Jose Ochoaanan so two Yan parlay uh this seems to be the parlay of the week for pretty much everybody and I'm on it I think it's going to hit so let's see how that one goes and then next Feng Xiaocan and Wang Cong uh thing pretty confident in her I think she's going to get takedowns and Kong Wang the value is kind of Gone But The Knockout should be there for her uh and then the next parlay we got is Jose Ochoa same thing knockout Carlos Ulberg same thing knockout so throw them together netive 122 Great Value so that was the video guys like And subscribe if you liked it of course and yeah I'll see you guys next time and hopefully we make some money this weekend I'm tired of this one week losing streak we are on a heater we're going three weeks in a w in a w three weeks in a row making money and we kind of a little set back but you know slingshot Theory you got to go back a little bit to propel yourself forward so that was the video guys let's make some money”
BO
Botmfeeder picks Lone'er Kavanagh VALUE
“loner kavana I believe is going to just be overwhelming for Jose OA Ora's undefeated almost all finishes he is still still very good and loer kavana just seems to be one of those flyweights that just has a little bit of an edge he has a wicked [__] right hand he has a wicked wicked power in his left hand and um I'm excited to see what he has but 7 to one on this is absolutely ridiculous in my opinion”
Botmfeeder picks Lone'er Kavanagh VALUE
“loner kavana I believe is going to just be overwhelming for Jose OA Ora's undefeated almost all finishes he is still still very good and loer kavana just seems to be one of those flyweights that just has a little bit of an edge he has a wicked [__] right hand he has a wicked wicked power in his left hand and um I'm excited to see what he has but 7 to one on this is absolutely ridiculous in my opinion”
CA
ContraGolpe - Analisa picks Lone'er Kavanagh
“Eu acho que o Cavan é melhor atleta e não foi testado ainda ele vem com poder de knockout mas assim poder de Noca contra frangos eu acho que nessa luta Talvez ele consiga a Vitória mas por decisão vou colocar a vitória do Cavan nessa aí”
ContraGolpe - Analisa picks Lone'er Kavanagh
“Eu acho que o Cavan é melhor atleta e não foi testado ainda ele vem com poder de knockout mas assim poder de Noca contra frangos eu acho que nessa luta Talvez ele consiga a Vitória mas por decisão vou colocar a vitória do Cavan nessa aí”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Kavanagh9-1
W
Moreno
Feb '26
L
Johnson
Aug '25
W
Santos
Mar '25
W
Ochoa
Nov '24
Ochoa8-2
W
Carpenter
May '26
W
Durden
Jun '25
L
Kavanagh
Nov '24