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UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira
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BR TT Royval vs TairaMain Card · Flyweight PJ BT Jun-yong vs TavaresMain Card · Middleweight CN JG Njokuani vs GoodenMain Card · Catchweight GD RG Dawson vs GarcíaMain Card · Lightweight DR AM Rodriguez vs MoronoMain Card · Welterweight RT CV Temirov vs VergaraPreliminary Card · Flyweight PS JP Sabatini vs PearcePreliminary Card · Featherweight TG NP Gorimbo vs PricePreliminary Card · Welterweight JT SS Tafa vs SharafPreliminary Card · Heavyweight JP CM Polastri vs McKennaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight CH DA Haddon vs ArguetaPreliminary Card · Catchweight CC LR Carpenter vs RochaPreliminary Card · Flyweight
BEST PRICE We back Polastri over McKenna · Women'S Strawweight Our fair value$1.79 Pinnacle pays above fair $1.83
Where to back Polastri best price · region · EV vs fair $1.79
US FanDuel $1.82 +2%
UK Paddy Power $1.80 +1%
EU Pinnacle $1.83 +2%
AU SportsBet $1.81 +1%
Consensus36 picks · conf 58/99
Polastri 22
14 McKenna
MBRJUT pick Polastri
How it endsmethod calls · Polastri · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $12.50
Decision 6 $2.08
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Polastri 14-5 VS 8-4 McKenna
5'2" height 5'3"
116 lb weight 115 lb
64" reach 59"
28 age 26
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.4 strikes landed / min 2.9
52% striking accuracy 38%
4.4 strikes absorbed / min 3.7
48% striking defence 46%
2.8 takedowns / 15 min 2.0
51% takedown accuracy 47%
87% takedown defence 75%
1.8 submissions / 15 min 0.4
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market56% vs 55%
Consensus22 of 36 analysts
Sharpest anglePolastri by Decision — 6 of 7 method calls
Recommendation Back Polastri @ $1.83 · fair $1.79 +2% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MP Mike's MMA Picks picks Cory McKenna VALUE “I'm going to be rolling and picking uh what once was the underdog and Cory McKenna I think that she's going to win this fight”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Julia Polastri “I went with Julia poast um Julia Polastri is the favorite at minus 150” $1.67
JO JorgeFlyingKnee picks Cory McKenna “yeah Cory McKenna to get this done”
WB Willis Bermingham picks Cory McKenna “I have Cory McKenna um they don't but it's gonna be a close fight probably a close boring fight”
MM MMAPlaya picks Julia Polastri “I just want to see Julia Polastri beat Cory McKenna has for 15 minutes”
CC Chronic Combat Conversations picks Julia Polastri VALUE “give me Rach Judo Thunder best bet three units” $1.60
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Julia Polastri VALUE “I'm picking pastry because she's more physically imposing”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Cory McKenna VALUE “I'm gonna lean Corey McKenna because she has the full training camp”
WR Wise Rise picks Cory McKenna VALUE “I will take Cory though if I had to make a pick you know what I mean as the dog” $2.15
MN MMA Lock of the Night picks Julia Polastri “I do think palashi will land the more damaging blows and have the more eye-catching shots to get her hat raised on the scorecards”
MM MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Cory McKenna VALUE “I'm going with the kenam in I just feel like the younger girl that's a onetime BigTime Prospect still in her young 20s I have to pick her to win as an underdog against a 31y old Fighter coming in here 0 and one in the UFC on short notice I just feel like if mcken is going to have anything to say about being a potential future player in the sport this has to be a a fight that she gets the job done and gets the win in so McKenna is going to be the prediction for me as the slide Underdog”
CC Casuals Combat Corner picks Cory McKenna “I'm gonna lean towards McKenna decision”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Polastri14-5
L Alencar Decision · R3 Apr '26
W Kowalkiewicz KO/TKO · R3 Oct '25
L Godinez Decision · R3 Mar '25
W McKenna Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Knutsson Decision · R3 Jun '24
McKenna8-4
L Polastri Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Amorim Submission · R1 Mar '24
W Vlismas Decision · R3 Dec '22
W Granger Submission · R2 Aug '22
L Reed Decision · R3 Mar '22