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Almabayev vs VergaraEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
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O'Malley vs VeraMain Card · Bantamweight
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Poirier vs DenisMain Card · Lightweight
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Page vs HollandMain Card · Welterweight
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GB
Maddalena vs BurnsMain Card · Welterweight
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Yan vs YadongMain Card · Bantamweight
CB
JA
Blaydes vs AlmeidaPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
MB
KC
Barber vs CerminaraPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
MG
RA
Gamrot vs AnjosPreliminary Card · Lightweight
KP
PM
Phillips vs MunhozPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
PL
IC
Lins vs CuțelabaEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
MP
MO
Pereira vs OleksiejczukEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
RD
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Despaigne vs ParisianEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight
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Almabayev vs VergaraEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
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Wood vs MorozEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Almabayev v Vergara
Catchweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Almabayev 23-3
VS
12-6-1 Vergara
5'4"
height
5'6"
125 lb
weight
126 lb
65"
reach
68"
32
age
35
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
2.1
strikes landed / min
5.1
56%
striking accuracy
56%
1.0
strikes absorbed / min
4.7
59%
striking defence
53%
5.1
takedowns / 15 min
0.0
50%
takedown accuracy
0%
50%
takedown defence
60%
1.7
submissions / 15 min
0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
RU
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“I really do like Asu Almabayev”
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“I really do like Asu Almabayev”
TD
The Rambling Dad picks Asu Almabayev
“I'm going to go with Asu Almabayev as well I don't see uh I I just Asu Almabayev as well I don't see uh I I just don't see C.J. Vergara pulling this off against uh against Asu Almabayev”
The Rambling Dad picks Asu Almabayev
“I'm going to go with Asu Almabayev as well I don't see uh I I just Asu Almabayev as well I don't see uh I I just don't see C.J. Vergara pulling this off against uh against Asu Almabayev”
WP
WillMartin UFC Fight Predictions picks Asu Almabayev
“I'm picking Asu Almabayev I think he finds a submission late round three or a decision”
WillMartin UFC Fight Predictions picks Asu Almabayev
“I'm picking Asu Almabayev I think he finds a submission late round three or a decision”
FI
FightBookMMA picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“I'm gonna go with Asu Almabayev will probably win that game so I'm gonna go onv I'm gonna go with a a decision”
FightBookMMA picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“I'm gonna go with Asu Almabayev will probably win that game so I'm gonna go onv I'm gonna go with a a decision”
KU
Kunath picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“I think that he does whatever he wants against C.J. Vergara this week even in a three-round decision win I think he could score north of 95 points at least”
Kunath picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“I think that he does whatever he wants against C.J. Vergara this week even in a three-round decision win I think he could score north of 95 points at least”
NN
Noah Nwadei picks Asu Almabayev
“his Asu Almabayev by unanimous decision”
Noah Nwadei picks Asu Almabayev
“his Asu Almabayev by unanimous decision”
PN
Picks Nation picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“I think Asu Almabayev might be one of the most confident favorites on the card he's actually the biggest favorite on the card and he can lose this fight because C.J. Vergara is tough C.J. Vergara has plenty of gas and all those things but assu alabay should be such a much better wrestler that he can just ragdoll CJ eventually get the finish”
Picks Nation picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“I think Asu Almabayev might be one of the most confident favorites on the card he's actually the biggest favorite on the card and he can lose this fight because C.J. Vergara is tough C.J. Vergara has plenty of gas and all those things but assu alabay should be such a much better wrestler that he can just ragdoll CJ eventually get the finish”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks C.J. Vergara
“I'm picking alv to win he should probably get it to the ground and win by a submission uh that's the most sensible outcome varar is scrambly though so I wouldn't necessarily throw the house down on Alma Bay have to win by sub you're not going to bet him at minus 600 he becomes more of a parlay piece we've seen varar subbed before thing is Asu Almabayev is also he's comfortable to in the guard top position”
$1.17
MMA EXPERTS picks C.J. Vergara
“I'm picking alv to win he should probably get it to the ground and win by a submission uh that's the most sensible outcome varar is scrambly though so I wouldn't necessarily throw the house down on Alma Bay have to win by sub you're not going to bet him at minus 600 he becomes more of a parlay piece we've seen varar subbed before thing is Asu Almabayev is also he's comfortable to in the guard top position”
$1.17
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“give me Asu Almabayev 9,500”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“give me Asu Almabayev 9,500”
FC
Fight Chronicles picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“I'm going to have to go with a bu bu sub um but I also like him money line”
Fight Chronicles picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“I'm going to have to go with a bu bu sub um but I also like him money line”
TH
The Ghity Hour picks Asu Almabayev
“I'm going to go with Asu Asu Almabayevmabayev by by submission”
The Ghity Hour picks Asu Almabayev
“I'm going to go with Asu Asu Almabayevmabayev by by submission”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Almabayev23-3
W
Johnson
Jun '26
W
Perez
Nov '25
W
Ochoa
Jul '25
L
Kape
Mar '25
W
Nicolau
Oct '24
Vergara12-6-1
L
Cháirez
Mar '25
L
Temirov
Oct '24
L
Almabayev
Mar '24
W
Salvador
Jul '23
W
Silva
Mar '23