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BS
BT
Silva vs TavaresMain Card · Middleweight
BG
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Green vs GordonMain Card · Lightweight
IL
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Lucindo vs WalkerMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
JW
MS
Wells vs SemelsbergerMain Card · Welterweight
CG
RG
Giagos vs GlennPreliminary Card · Lightweight
MJ
RY
Jackson vs YahyaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
ND
KR
Dumont vs RosaPreliminary Card · Women'S Featherweight
MU
JT
Usman vs TafaPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Pavlovich v Blaydes
Heavyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Pavlovich 20-3
VS
0-0 Blaydes
6'3"
height
6'4"
255 lb
weight
256 lb
84"
reach
80"
34
age
35
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
3.1
strikes landed / min
3.5
44%
striking accuracy
50%
3.3
strikes absorbed / min
1.9
66%
striking defence
58%
1.8
takedowns / 15 min
5.7
25%
takedown accuracy
53%
64%
takedown defence
31%
1.1
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
WP
We Want Picks picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“I gotta go Sergey pavovic in DraftKings literally because that's the only price that's going to work in my lineup”
We Want Picks picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“I gotta go Sergey pavovic in DraftKings literally because that's the only price that's going to work in my lineup”
M👊
MMA.I. - UFC Predictions & Simulations 👊🎮 picks Curtis Blaydes
“the simulations have Curtis blades coming out Victorious winning four out of five simulations with one decision Victory and three knockout victories in the second fourth and fifth rounds”
MMA.I. - UFC Predictions & Simulations 👊🎮 picks Curtis Blaydes
“the simulations have Curtis blades coming out Victorious winning four out of five simulations with one decision Victory and three knockout victories in the second fourth and fifth rounds”
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Curtis Blaydes
“I'm gonna go with Curtis Blaydes man... any money line he has to get the win”
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Curtis Blaydes
“I'm gonna go with Curtis Blaydes man... any money line he has to get the win”
1C
101MMA Clinic picks Curtis Blaydes
“if he plays it smart it's gonna be a sweet night for him”
101MMA Clinic picks Curtis Blaydes
“if he plays it smart it's gonna be a sweet night for him”
HB
Half The Battle picks Curtis Blaydes VALUE
“for that reason I'm gonna go with Curtis Blaydes in the main event”
$1.57
Half The Battle picks Curtis Blaydes VALUE
“for that reason I'm gonna go with Curtis Blaydes in the main event”
$1.57
NN
Noah Nwadei picks Curtis Blaydes
“I think that Curtis Blaydes is gonna take this one”
Noah Nwadei picks Curtis Blaydes
“I think that Curtis Blaydes is gonna take this one”
DR
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“I'm personally wondering where the Sergei Pavlovich has got the the the ingredients in his game to be able to be a heavyweight champion”
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“I'm personally wondering where the Sergei Pavlovich has got the the the ingredients in his game to be able to be a heavyweight champion”
MD
MMA DOST picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“I think so ki yeh fight ko jo bhi jeete saj palo mein jeete or clutchus blood jeete he is going to be the next contender”
MMA DOST picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“I think so ki yeh fight ko jo bhi jeete saj palo mein jeete or clutchus blood jeete he is going to be the next contender”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Curtis Blaydes
“Billy Q fights over aggressive gets Reckless”
MMA EXPERTS picks Curtis Blaydes
“Billy Q fights over aggressive gets Reckless”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“Edson Barbosa still as dangerous as ever”
MMA EXPERTS picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“Edson Barbosa still as dangerous as ever”
WM
Walk The Line MMA picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“I'm going to say that the Striking that we've seen from Sergei Pavlovich Pavlovich as of recently has been some of the most technical yet disastrous and brutal striking”
Walk The Line MMA picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“I'm going to say that the Striking that we've seen from Sergei Pavlovich Pavlovich as of recently has been some of the most technical yet disastrous and brutal striking”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Pavlovich20-3
W
Teixeira
May '26
W
Cortes-Acosta
Aug '25
W
Rozenstruik
Feb '25
L
Volkov
Jun '24
L
Aspinall
Nov '23
Blaydes0-0
L
Hokit
Apr '26
W
Kuniev
Jun '25
L
Aspinall
Jul '24
W
Almeida
Mar '24
L
Pavlovich
Apr '23