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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Błachowicz v Ankalaev
Light Heavyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Błachowicz 29-10-1
VS
21-2-1 Ankalaev
—
height
6'3"
—
weight
204 lb
—
reach
75"
43
age
34
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
3.4
strikes landed / min
3.1
50%
striking accuracy
65%
2.9
strikes absorbed / min
2.9
53%
striking defence
54%
1.1
takedowns / 15 min
2.2
50%
takedown accuracy
35%
68%
takedown defence
84%
0.3
submissions / 15 min
0.8
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
OM
One On One | MMA picks Jan Błachowicz VALUE
“I have some I want to go through some of the stats I think are pretty interesting and in particular I'm I'm fascinated by magomed and his ability to really really utilize those Southpaw Tools in particular well I love that you broke out the stats because it's interesting to hear the stats compared to what I see because the stats don't always tell the story and what I see seems a little different when I see ankle eye of strike it looks like he's more patient as he's waiting for the big shot and when I see yawn strike it just looks like he's kind of uncomfortable and a little slower in those areas so to me I I think there's a big difference in the Striking but um I'm sorry Laura what was the question no I was I was just I was just saying like it it I think in this fight in particular because NOT_IN_ROSTER_9 has done well against southpaws he loves to land that left hook does a good job with that again facing a southpaw um and you know a bit of a step up in competition for Maga met ankalaya Beyond's been in this position before he's had the belt before so I guess I'm interested to see if this is a closer fight than maybe you know that then maybe you think it might be well it could be and here's why because we don't know how Uncle live is going to handle the big moment and and I hate to sound so I I don't want to sound racist here but wouldn't I know that's a that's always a bad sign when you got a preface it when I don't want to be racist but sometimes but sometimes when we've seen some of the the bigger Russians the bigger Russian Fighters they haven't been as aggressive as some of the smaller ones and handle the pressure the same and because some of the smaller ones I don't know for whatever reason they just seem to handle the pressure a little bit better so when you look at some of the bigger ones like the 85 Pounders 205ers and the the heavyweights they just don't handle it the same they get is that a fear of is that a fear of having your gas leave you do you think it could be I don't know what it is whatever for whatever reason it just hasn't seemed us to be the same like like the lighter weights when we see the lighter weights are just like on fire and they're just buzzing but for whatever reason they haven't handled the big moments so if afterlife goes out there and can't handle this big moment he can lose this fight there's no doubt in my mind that Jan doesn't have what it takes to beat him because Jan is a hard worker to understand his success came from hard work so he's going to look at these moments like this is my shot I can't let this go yeah while act alive is like I know I'm talented but I'm nervous and be hesitant yeah and he is as you say very very patient very calculated I think something that maybe gets not talked about enough with him is just his pure fight IQ I mean he's just so um so conservative in there and so level-headed in terms of how he approaches the fight and when he decides to make the moves that he decides to make and the way that he puts his combinations together ends a lot of his combinations with that beautiful head kick that he has and does it from such a he can do it from a really far kicking range he can do it from a close kicking range where he doesn't completely open up his head it's really his hip I should say it's really impressive to see but with this fight being moved from three rounds to now five rounds does that favor one or the other or do you think doesn't really matter I don't I don't think it matters I think both of these guys fight at a slow enough Pace that they could fight 10 Rounds because of their pacing like they're they're not go-getters they're not going to really go after it at moments I think Yan will go after to try to like if it's close yawn will be the one to try to steal it around I think because again he's the harder worker of the two but I think ankle live I mean we saw when he fought Chiago Santos there were times where he was so hesitant because I think he was so respected the power of NOT_IN_ROSTER_8 that NOT_IN_ROSTER_8 is a little bit more explosive than Jan so he you know more reason to be hesitant but you know it's interesting that you that these stats are so similar because to me they're so different in terms of fighting they're just I see like a completely different fighter and Uncle live is so clean he's so smooth he's so skilled but again like he's he's always waiting for the the perfect moment if he allows nerves to get in there we can see we might find a guy overthinking and underdoing and that's a problem if he starts under doing which speaks to that accuracy stat right I mean he's got he's got really good striking accuracy and I think when you you have that patient approach that's when you're going to see that reflected in the statistics like that where as you say yan yan is a little bit more he's gonna it's not that he's a super high volume fighter he he is also a fairly medium to low volume fighter but when he does decide to go he does put together some some long combinations and you know for me I think NOT_IN_ROSTER_9 whereas Maga Med does really really well at the at the longest range possible because he does such a good job of closing the distance with a combination then like I said earlier ending with a kick and then you've got yawn who also likes to kick goes to the body a lot with his kicks but some of his best work his Knockouts have come in the pocket or in those situations where you're you're breaking from the pocket or you're breaking from the clinch and he's able to land that hook so in your mind is it best for mangamed Uncle live to just stay on the outside regardless don't try to Grapple don't try to clinch just make this an outside fight yeah I think that's because I think he's going to have the speed Advantage by a lot so that's where he's going to do his best work is being on the outside using his speed advantage using faints to open up some opportunities for him to get in do his work and get out before Jan has a chance to respond now you're right NOT_IN_ROSTER_9 has a good kick like his you know he's and that was that that kick his right kick can be a deciding factor could be a very deciding factor in this fight if he's able to get it off on Uncle lab so Uncle live is gonna have to really use his footwork and his angles and the speed to be able to avoid that that right kick um obviously you think really highly of the skill set of mug about Uncle live and I totally understand why on the flip side of that if you were corner and yawn you know what what's your game plan what's your what's your biggest I guess X Factor a piece of advice like this is what we have to do in this fight in order to in order to win or in order to give ourselves the best chances possible you know he's really got to outwork him he's really got to dog him out and I think he's got to hurt him at some point like that's that's an an equalizer just being able to hurt somebody and NOT_IN_ROSTER_9 has the potential to do that with his power you know with his kicking game and just he's just a powerful guy so he's got to be able to hurt ankle live now for for me I think he should go to the body early because it's such an easier Target to hit he's got the reach Advantage so go to the body early show Uncle live did he that you can hurt him and that'll slow aqualab down a little bit because he's not going to take a lot of chances if he knows he's going to get hurt I'm interested too about the mentality of yawn coming into this because not only is there the idea that um he all of a sudden finds himself back in the spot where you know this is an interesting division where it may have taken him you know one or two fights more to get himself back in this in this shot and here he is you know all of a sudden fighting for a title again and then you add to that I don't know if you watched the um the countdown did you see countdown I did not see the calendar so in countdown he talks about how he has a new head coach same gym but there's a new coach that has sort of taken over that head coaching role who was initially just primarily Jan's wrestling coach but Jan made a comment that I thought was really telling maybe I'm reading too much into it but he said you know I I feel like um he really really wants to be here and is dedicated to as as dedicated to this fight as I am or something along those lines I'm not getting the quote exactly but it made it sound like maybe in the in the past he didn't feel the full commitment from his other coaching staff and I mean what a difference that can make coming into you know a huge opportunity like this to be working with a new guy potentially some new tricks up his sleeve well not necessarily that but the what happens is you start to put a lot of pressure on yourself when when you feel like it's just you and these other guys are here because they either want the money or they want the glory to say that they came to the EVENT_DETAILS you know it's like you go to oh let me come you know so everybody wants to be there but when you got a guy who's really riding with you who's ready to die for you said right just aside like that gives you extra motivation it takes the pressure off you to say you know what man I'm not doing this just for me I'm doing this for them too this is my guy I need I need to be out there and perform for them too and that's a that's dangerous that's a dangerous combination in addition for a guy like NOT_IN_ROSTER_9 who already thrives off of his Grit so when you add extra grit another motivator for him we gotta fight here I think it could be I think this could be closer than what I don't know what the odds are on it but I think it would be closer because skill Wise It's to me it's a no-brainer alkaline is is you know head and shoulders in terms of skill over yawn but you can't you can't count them out man he's tough as they come he's durable and I mean you can never sleep on NOT_IN_ROSTER_12 so no you can't you know and he he's such a hard worker like when he fights you could see it like you see he has he has a lot of Desire yeah that's at the Forefront of his skill set his desire now desire doesn't win fights so that's the problem so I think that that could be the downfall in this fight though yeah desire Gets You Through tough moments but it doesn't build your skill set no in the middle of the fight well that's it from the main event I mean it's gonna be a good one regardless of which way it goes EVENT_DETAILS coming to you from T-Mobile Arena this Saturday ESPN plus pay-per-view thank you so much NOT_IN_ROSTER_10 Thomas guys if you like this lots more where this came from hick hick oh my word NOT_IN_ROSTER_10 it's like I don't talk for a living hit like hit subscribe and NOT_IN_ROSTER_10 and I are going to talk about the co-main event as well so take a look for uh that video too see you there guys”
One On One | MMA picks Jan Błachowicz VALUE
“I have some I want to go through some of the stats I think are pretty interesting and in particular I'm I'm fascinated by magomed and his ability to really really utilize those Southpaw Tools in particular well I love that you broke out the stats because it's interesting to hear the stats compared to what I see because the stats don't always tell the story and what I see seems a little different when I see ankle eye of strike it looks like he's more patient as he's waiting for the big shot and when I see yawn strike it just looks like he's kind of uncomfortable and a little slower in those areas so to me I I think there's a big difference in the Striking but um I'm sorry Laura what was the question no I was I was just I was just saying like it it I think in this fight in particular because NOT_IN_ROSTER_9 has done well against southpaws he loves to land that left hook does a good job with that again facing a southpaw um and you know a bit of a step up in competition for Maga met ankalaya Beyond's been in this position before he's had the belt before so I guess I'm interested to see if this is a closer fight than maybe you know that then maybe you think it might be well it could be and here's why because we don't know how Uncle live is going to handle the big moment and and I hate to sound so I I don't want to sound racist here but wouldn't I know that's a that's always a bad sign when you got a preface it when I don't want to be racist but sometimes but sometimes when we've seen some of the the bigger Russians the bigger Russian Fighters they haven't been as aggressive as some of the smaller ones and handle the pressure the same and because some of the smaller ones I don't know for whatever reason they just seem to handle the pressure a little bit better so when you look at some of the bigger ones like the 85 Pounders 205ers and the the heavyweights they just don't handle it the same they get is that a fear of is that a fear of having your gas leave you do you think it could be I don't know what it is whatever for whatever reason it just hasn't seemed us to be the same like like the lighter weights when we see the lighter weights are just like on fire and they're just buzzing but for whatever reason they haven't handled the big moments so if afterlife goes out there and can't handle this big moment he can lose this fight there's no doubt in my mind that Jan doesn't have what it takes to beat him because Jan is a hard worker to understand his success came from hard work so he's going to look at these moments like this is my shot I can't let this go yeah while act alive is like I know I'm talented but I'm nervous and be hesitant yeah and he is as you say very very patient very calculated I think something that maybe gets not talked about enough with him is just his pure fight IQ I mean he's just so um so conservative in there and so level-headed in terms of how he approaches the fight and when he decides to make the moves that he decides to make and the way that he puts his combinations together ends a lot of his combinations with that beautiful head kick that he has and does it from such a he can do it from a really far kicking range he can do it from a close kicking range where he doesn't completely open up his head it's really his hip I should say it's really impressive to see but with this fight being moved from three rounds to now five rounds does that favor one or the other or do you think doesn't really matter I don't I don't think it matters I think both of these guys fight at a slow enough Pace that they could fight 10 Rounds because of their pacing like they're they're not go-getters they're not going to really go after it at moments I think Yan will go after to try to like if it's close yawn will be the one to try to steal it around I think because again he's the harder worker of the two but I think ankle live I mean we saw when he fought Chiago Santos there were times where he was so hesitant because I think he was so respected the power of NOT_IN_ROSTER_8 that NOT_IN_ROSTER_8 is a little bit more explosive than Jan so he you know more reason to be hesitant but you know it's interesting that you that these stats are so similar because to me they're so different in terms of fighting they're just I see like a completely different fighter and Uncle live is so clean he's so smooth he's so skilled but again like he's he's always waiting for the the perfect moment if he allows nerves to get in there we can see we might find a guy overthinking and underdoing and that's a problem if he starts under doing which speaks to that accuracy stat right I mean he's got he's got really good striking accuracy and I think when you you have that patient approach that's when you're going to see that reflected in the statistics like that where as you say yan yan is a little bit more he's gonna it's not that he's a super high volume fighter he he is also a fairly medium to low volume fighter but when he does decide to go he does put together some some long combinations and you know for me I think NOT_IN_ROSTER_9 whereas Maga Med does really really well at the at the longest range possible because he does such a good job of closing the distance with a combination then like I said earlier ending with a kick and then you've got yawn who also likes to kick goes to the body a lot with his kicks but some of his best work his Knockouts have come in the pocket or in those situations where you're you're breaking from the pocket or you're breaking from the clinch and he's able to land that hook so in your mind is it best for mangamed Uncle live to just stay on the outside regardless don't try to Grapple don't try to clinch just make this an outside fight yeah I think that's because I think he's going to have the speed Advantage by a lot so that's where he's going to do his best work is being on the outside using his speed advantage using faints to open up some opportunities for him to get in do his work and get out before Jan has a chance to respond now you're right NOT_IN_ROSTER_9 has a good kick like his you know he's and that was that that kick his right kick can be a deciding factor could be a very deciding factor in this fight if he's able to get it off on Uncle lab so Uncle live is gonna have to really use his footwork and his angles and the speed to be able to avoid that that right kick um obviously you think really highly of the skill set of mug about Uncle live and I totally understand why on the flip side of that if you were corner and yawn you know what what's your game plan what's your what's your biggest I guess X Factor a piece of advice like this is what we have to do in this fight in order to in order to win or in order to give ourselves the best chances possible you know he's really got to outwork him he's really got to dog him out and I think he's got to hurt him at some point like that's that's an an equalizer just being able to hurt somebody and NOT_IN_ROSTER_9 has the potential to do that with his power you know with his kicking game and just he's just a powerful guy so he's got to be able to hurt ankle live now for for me I think he should go to the body early because it's such an easier Target to hit he's got the reach Advantage so go to the body early show Uncle live did he that you can hurt him and that'll slow aqualab down a little bit because he's not going to take a lot of chances if he knows he's going to get hurt I'm interested too about the mentality of yawn coming into this because not only is there the idea that um he all of a sudden finds himself back in the spot where you know this is an interesting division where it may have taken him you know one or two fights more to get himself back in this in this shot and here he is you know all of a sudden fighting for a title again and then you add to that I don't know if you watched the um the countdown did you see countdown I did not see the calendar so in countdown he talks about how he has a new head coach same gym but there's a new coach that has sort of taken over that head coaching role who was initially just primarily Jan's wrestling coach but Jan made a comment that I thought was really telling maybe I'm reading too much into it but he said you know I I feel like um he really really wants to be here and is dedicated to as as dedicated to this fight as I am or something along those lines I'm not getting the quote exactly but it made it sound like maybe in the in the past he didn't feel the full commitment from his other coaching staff and I mean what a difference that can make coming into you know a huge opportunity like this to be working with a new guy potentially some new tricks up his sleeve well not necessarily that but the what happens is you start to put a lot of pressure on yourself when when you feel like it's just you and these other guys are here because they either want the money or they want the glory to say that they came to the EVENT_DETAILS you know it's like you go to oh let me come you know so everybody wants to be there but when you got a guy who's really riding with you who's ready to die for you said right just aside like that gives you extra motivation it takes the pressure off you to say you know what man I'm not doing this just for me I'm doing this for them too this is my guy I need I need to be out there and perform for them too and that's a that's dangerous that's a dangerous combination in addition for a guy like NOT_IN_ROSTER_9 who already thrives off of his Grit so when you add extra grit another motivator for him we gotta fight here I think it could be I think this could be closer than what I don't know what the odds are on it but I think it would be closer because skill Wise It's to me it's a no-brainer alkaline is is you know head and shoulders in terms of skill over yawn but you can't you can't count them out man he's tough as they come he's durable and I mean you can never sleep on NOT_IN_ROSTER_12 so no you can't you know and he he's such a hard worker like when he fights you could see it like you see he has he has a lot of Desire yeah that's at the Forefront of his skill set his desire now desire doesn't win fights so that's the problem so I think that that could be the downfall in this fight though yeah desire Gets You Through tough moments but it doesn't build your skill set no in the middle of the fight well that's it from the main event I mean it's gonna be a good one regardless of which way it goes EVENT_DETAILS coming to you from T-Mobile Arena this Saturday ESPN plus pay-per-view thank you so much NOT_IN_ROSTER_10 Thomas guys if you like this lots more where this came from hick hick oh my word NOT_IN_ROSTER_10 it's like I don't talk for a living hit like hit subscribe and NOT_IN_ROSTER_10 and I are going to talk about the co-main event as well so take a look for uh that video too see you there guys”
SN
SPORTS JEDI NETWORK picks Magomed Ankalaev
“I see Aunt Magomed Ankalaev win his fight I just think he's got more ways to win”
SPORTS JEDI NETWORK picks Magomed Ankalaev
“I see Aunt Magomed Ankalaev win his fight I just think he's got more ways to win”
KU
Kunath picks Magomed Ankalaev
“I don't think that Magomed Ankalaev is going to lose this fight”
Kunath picks Magomed Ankalaev
“I don't think that Magomed Ankalaev is going to lose this fight”
1C
101MMA Clinic picks Magomed Ankalaev
“we are both saying Magomed Ankalaev in this one yeah that's right we're going with ankle live”
$1.36
101MMA Clinic picks Magomed Ankalaev
“we are both saying Magomed Ankalaev in this one yeah that's right we're going with ankle live”
$1.36
TF
The ICE Files picks Magomed Ankalaev VALUE
“so uh Magomed Ankalaev that's my pick”
The ICE Files picks Magomed Ankalaev VALUE
“so uh Magomed Ankalaev that's my pick”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Magomed Ankalaev
“so yeah my pick I'm gonna side with Venetia Salvador”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Magomed Ankalaev
“so yeah my pick I'm gonna side with Venetia Salvador”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Magomed Ankalaev VALUE
“I think he wins this fight I think on the feed it's going to be competitive... I think angle live mixing in those takedowns is going to be what wins them the fight by decision”
$1.38
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Magomed Ankalaev VALUE
“I think he wins this fight I think on the feed it's going to be competitive... I think angle live mixing in those takedowns is going to be what wins them the fight by decision”
$1.38
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Magomed Ankalaev VALUE
“I think Magomed Ankalaev is going to get the win though”
MMA EXPERTS picks Magomed Ankalaev VALUE
“I think Magomed Ankalaev is going to get the win though”
HB
Half The Battle picks Magomed Ankalaev VALUE
“so I had to see unless there's a finish I see magomed winning at least four of these rounds so I played magomed minus 250”
$1.40
Half The Battle picks Magomed Ankalaev VALUE
“so I had to see unless there's a finish I see magomed winning at least four of these rounds so I played magomed minus 250”
$1.40
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Błachowicz29-10-1
L
Ulberg
Mar '25
L
Pereira
Jul '23
W
Rakić
May '22
L
Teixeira
Oct '21
W
Adesanya
Mar '21
Ankalaev21-2-1
L
Pereira
Oct '25
W
Pereira
Mar '25
W
Rakić
Oct '24
W
Walker
Jan '24
W
Smith
Jul '22