UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · breakdown
Picks, timestamped
entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
KN
Kennedy Nzechukwu
v Łukasz Brzeski
MONEYLINE
WON
Kennedy Nzechukwu
v Łukasz Brzeski
MONEYLINE
WON
“Kennedy Nzechukwu is the obvious pick here in my opinion”
Line since pick
CLV −2%
◆ entry$1.18
→
close$1.20
entry: PointsBet (AU) · best in any region at publish
CH
Chase Hooper
v Clay Guida
MONEYLINE
WON
Chase Hooper
v Clay Guida
MONEYLINE
WON
“the model is very strong at minus 252 our money goes where the model tells us”
Line since pick
CLV +2%
◆ entry$1.12
→
close$1.10
entry: Paddy Power · best in any region at publish
MC
Michael Chiesa
v Max Griffin
MONEYLINE
WON
Michael Chiesa
v Max Griffin
MONEYLINE
WON
“the model sees it flipped with Kessa at minus 132 I expect this to be a close fight with Michael having the advantage on the ground Griffin has never been subbed but I'm hoping for the first this weekend”
Line since pick
CLV +14%
◆ entry$2.18
→
close$1.92
entry: Coolbet · best in any region at publish
CD
Cody Durden
v Joshua Van
MONEYLINE
LOST
Cody Durden
v Joshua Van
MONEYLINE
LOST
“the model is a bit more confident at minus 160 Joshua does have an 83% takedown defense rate in the UFC and I expect that he'll need that to hold up to secure a win this weekend”
Line since pick
CLV −4%
◆ entry$2.35
→
close$2.45
entry: Coolbet · best in any region at publish
ME
Movsar Evloev
v Aljamain Sterling
MONEYLINE
WON
Movsar Evloev
v Aljamain Sterling
MONEYLINE
WON
“at our book evloev is a minus 260 favorite while the model sees it closer to even at minus 1119 aljo is often looked at as a wrestler but only has a 27% takedown accuracy in the UFC his defense is slightly better but at only 45% I'd expect evloev to have a clean path to Victory”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.44
→
close$1.44
entry: TAB · best in any region at publish
DR
Dominick Reyes
v Anthony Smith
MONEYLINE
WON
Dominick Reyes
v Anthony Smith
MONEYLINE
WON
“the model has the fight much closer at minus 1225 I'm not sure that Dom's chin will ever recover but Anthony hasn't scored a KO TKO since 2018 so I'm holding out hope”
Line since pick
CLV +1%
◆ entry$1.31
→
close$1.30
entry: BetAnything · best in any region at publish
CD
Choi Doo-ho
v Nate Landwehr
MONEYLINE
WON
“our book was offering Nate at minus 145 but the model sees value and Choy favoring him atus 138”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.38
→
close$2.38
entry = analyst’s stated line (no snapshot at publish)
BM
Bryce Mitchell
v Kron Gracie
MONEYLINE
WON
Bryce Mitchell
v Kron Gracie
MONEYLINE
WON
“at the books Bryce is a very large minus 600 favorite and the model is on the same side at minus 138 I'd like to see Bryce keep this fight on the feet where he should have a clear Advantage”
Line since pick
CLV +3%
◆ entry$1.17
→
close$1.14
entry: Coolbet · best in any region at publish