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UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
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AP KA Pantoja vs AsakuraMain Card · Flyweight SR IG Rakhmonov vs GarryMain Card · Welterweight CG AV Gane vs VolkovMain Card · Heavyweight BM KG Mitchell vs GracieMain Card · Featherweight CD NL Doo-ho vs LandwehrMain Card · Featherweight DR AS Reyes vs SmithPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight VL TG Luque vs GorimboPreliminary Card · Welterweight ME AS Evloev vs SterlingPreliminary Card · Featherweight BB RB Battle vs BrownPreliminary Card · Catchweight EA CW Anders vs WeidmanEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight JV CD Van vs DurdenEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight MC MG Chiesa vs GriffinEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight CH CG Hooper vs GuidaEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight KN ŁB Nzechukwu vs BrzeskiEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE We back Griffin over Chiesa · Welterweight Our fair value$4.31 Unibet pays above fair $13.00
Where to back Griffin best price · region · EV vs fair $4.31
US Bally Bet $13.00 +201%
UK Unibet (UK) $13.00 +201%
EU Unibet (EU) $13.00 +201%
AU Unibet $13.00 +201%
Consensus48 picks · conf 68/99
Chiesa 26
22 Griffin
HUAMAM pick Chiesa
How it endsmethod calls · Griffin · crowd line
KO/TKO 4 $15.10
Submission 2 $30.20
Decision 8 $7.55
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Chiesa 19-7 VS 20-12 Griffin
6'1" height 5'11"
171 lb weight 170 lb
76" reach 76"
38 age 40
Southpaw stance Orthodox
1.9 strikes landed / min 3.9
40% striking accuracy 49%
1.7 strikes absorbed / min 3.8
53% striking defence 57%
3.4 takedowns / 15 min 1.4
51% takedown accuracy 41%
60% takedown defence 68%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 0.3
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market23% vs 8%
Consensus22 of 48 analysts
Sharpest angleGriffin by Decision — 8 of 14 method calls
Recommendation Back Griffin @ $13.00 · fair $4.31 +201% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TA TakeDownTalks picks Michael Chiesa “victory Michael Chiesa NOT_IN_ROSTER_6 versus Max Griffin”
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Michael Chiesa “None”
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Max Griffin VALUE “I'm picking Max Griffin”
TD The Rambling Dad picks Max Griffin VALUE “I'm going with Eric Eryk Anders”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Michael Chiesa “I'm picking Michael Chiesa”
AJ AjTooFresh picks Michael Chiesa “I might have to go with Michael here”
JC Just Facts Combat picks Max Griffin “I'm leaning toward Max Griffin for this fight”
ET Extra Thiccc picks Michael Chiesa VALUE “Michael Chiesa also a dog plus 105” $2.05
WP We Want Picks picks Michael Chiesa VALUE “I think Michael Kessa can squeak out a win here I think he can work in a takedown and I think he can get it done”
HM Hugo Ferraz MMA picks Michael Chiesa VALUE “I'm going with Michael shazza just to pick an underdog”
IL IBG Live picks Michael Chiesa “I got Michael Chiesa”
MN MMA Lock of the Night picks Michael Chiesa “I do have to lean with Griffin's activity as of late as I do think his ability to keep this fight standing and badrick K on the feet will allow him to win this fight on the scor cards”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Chiesa19-7
W Price Submission · R1 Mar '26
W McGee Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Griffin Submission · R3 Dec '24
W Ferguson Submission · R1 Aug '24
L Holland Submission · R1 Jul '23
Griffin20-12
L Valenzuela Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Curtis Decision · R3 Jul '25
L Chiesa Submission · R3 Dec '24
W Wells Decision · R3 Feb '24
L Morales Decision · R3 Jul '23