UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · breakdown
UFC 315 Early Bird Bets: Uncovering Hidden Value in the Numbers
WS
We'll Do It Live! MMA Betting & Scoring52% hit
14 months ago
2W–5L · -4.3u
Picks, timestamped
entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
AG
Alexa Grasso
v Natália Silva
MONEYLINE
LOST
Alexa Grasso
v Natália Silva
MONEYLINE
LOST
“Alexa Grasso plus 185. Um I'm giving her a 43% chance against Natália Silva and that's 7.9 percentage points of value.”
Line since pick
CLV −9%
◆ entry$2.97
→
close$3.25
entry: Pinnacle · best in any region at publish
MF
Manon Fiorot
v Valentina Shevchenko
MONEYLINE
LOST
Manon Fiorot
v Valentina Shevchenko
MONEYLINE
LOST
“Two units on the champ to win 2.88. Not sure. It's got to be the reach advantage for uh Manon Fiorot.”
Line since pick
CLV −7%
◆ entry$1.71
→
close$1.83
entry: Betsson · best in any region at publish
BM
Belal Muhammad
v Jack Della Maddalena
MONEYLINE
LOST
Belal Muhammad
v Jack Della Maddalena
MONEYLINE
LOST
“give me Belal Muhammad Muhammad here. All right, so to recap our EVENT_DETAILS early bird bets, I have the parlay with Daniel Silva and Belal Muhammad.”
Line since pick
CLV −4%
◆ entry$1.50
→
close$1.57
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish
JA
Jéssica Andrade
v Jasmine Jasudavicius
MONEYLINE
LOST
—
Jéssica Andrade
v Jasmine Jasudavicius
MONEYLINE
LOST
—
“we will uh have some money on Jéssica Andrade, just not yet... the value is there at plus 250.”
Line since pick
CLV −5%
◆ entry$3.50
→
close$3.70
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish
DS
Daniel Santos
v Lee Jeong-yeong
MONEYLINE
WON
—
Daniel Santos
v Lee Jeong-yeong
MONEYLINE
WON
—
“I think that uh Santos is going to be a step above here. My metrics show it uh at least on the Glico.”
Line since pick
—
no market data captured for this fight
IE
Ivan Erslan
v Navajo Stirling
MONEYLINE
LOST
—
Ivan Erslan
v Navajo Stirling
MONEYLINE
LOST
—
“I'm giving Ivan Erslan a 55% chance through the metrics against Navajo Sterling... So we have a unit on it”
Line since pick
CLV −4%
◆ entry$3.60
→
close$3.75
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish
MB
Marc-André Barriault
v Bruno Silva
MONEYLINE
WON
—
Marc-André Barriault
v Bruno Silva
MONEYLINE
WON
—
“if I would go any direction I would take Marc-André Barriault especially if my metrics show it. I'd take him now. But I'm not going to bet him at minus 145.”
Line since pick
CLV +2%
◆ entry$1.70
→
close$1.67
entry: Ladbrokes AU · best in any region at publish