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Izzysdegenmind
UFC on ESPN: Moreno vs. Erceg · breakdown

UFC MEXICO: MORENO VS ERCEG BEST BETS #ufc #ufcpredictions #ufcpicks

IZ Izzysdegenmind58% hit
15 months ago 1W–2L · -1.1u
Picks, timestamped entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
LG Loopy Godinez v Julia Polastri MONEYLINE WON
“I think that she'll be able to outclass her just take her down hold her for those rounds for at least two of those three rounds I don't think Julia Polastri Polastri is that special to be honest”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.87 close$1.87
entry = analyst’s stated line (no snapshot at publish)
CV C.J. Vergara v Édgar Cháirez MONEYLINE LOST
“I put a unit on it and his name is C.J. C.J. Vergara now C.J. C.J. Vergara is facing Édgar Cháirez I respect Édgar Cháirez Édgar Cháirez because I've put him in the party of the week before and he's respected coin so I can't hate on him but he should not by any means be minus 295 on DraftKings there's no there's no reason for him to be a minus 295 against someone like C.J. C.J. Vergara because we know we know that Édgar Cháirez's going to want to keep this on the ground at any time but C.J. Vergara's pretty slick on the ground as well I know he's a little bigger and whatnot but he'll be be able to maintain top control as long as he doesn't get caught in a triangle or anything slick by Édgar Cháirez and standing I I kind of lean him I lean his striking I lean his power as well I thought this fight at Le in terms of the odds were going to be closer obviously chers does have the 3-in reach advantage and the 3-inch leg reach Advantage every fight has almost why they're all dead even but regardless I just don't see why Édgar Cháirez chus at this point is that heavy of a favorite he lost his last fight to Joshua van he's one one and three in the EVENT_DETAILS including Contender series we'll say one and two and one no contest that one win is the same fighter he pulled the No contest with with which was probably going to be a w anyways Joshua van absolutely outclassed him now C.J. Vergara varar is on a two-fight skit as well he got smoked in this last fight which I understand why the odds are like that for that reason maybe but I just in terms of a matchup I don't hate it now if it was closer in odds I probably wouldn't have touched it until maybe the the second because C.J. Vergara likes to get beat up a little earlier but at plus 220 I'll take it early I mean I think he can win the first round against against Édgar Cháirez I think he can finish chy to be honest um it can get a little sloppy if it gets to the third obviously with elevation he seems to get pretty tired as well that's what scares me but at plus 220 like I said I'll take it I will Hammer a unit on it to win two two units not not mad at all”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$3.30 close$3.30
entry: Coolbet · best in any region at publish
MT Manuel Torres v Drew Dober PROP · SUBMISSION LOST
“a plus 500 prop bet on a fighter to win by submission and that is none other than Manuel Manuel Torres Manuel Torres Manuel Torres plus 500 on FanDuel I put a quarter unit on it let me just explain all right as we already know this fight's probably not going to go go to decision we know Drew Dober Drew Dober Dober has got a big Blockhead but he's been getting cracked lately he's been getting cracked and there's a chance he can get cracked here as well so Manuel Manuel Torres Manuel Torres Manuel Torres obviously got cracked by baham mundez in his last fight but what people don't understand also is that people just view him as a striker homie out of 15 wins in his career and then we scratch out the decision because he's it's only been one decision he's an animal win or lose he's an animal so 14 career wins by finish it's split down the middle between knockout on TKO and sub he can absolutely get a sub against someone like true Drew Dober Dober who's lost four times by sub as well obviously jobber has plenty of decision wins and losses as well and TKO and TKO Los wins and losses um but Drew Dober Drew Dober Dober has also lost three of his last four after being on a three-fight win streak he's very streaky I don't think he's fought the type of fighter that Manuel Manuel Torres Manuel Torres is since he beat nazra hakaras uh by TKO in the first round five years ago and we know at that point nazrat was still very green he's not the fighter he was now that's on a four-fight win streak but but ever since then he hasn't really faced anyone as as clean as Manuel Manuel Torres Manuel Torres maybe he doesn't have the exact power that maybe a Matt fola has or a jean Silva but he has the Finesse and he's the taller fighter here by 2 in he has a 3 and a half inch reach advantage and a 6 in leg reach Advantage those things are going to be crucial with keeping it in the center of the cage not being pressured back just holding his own against someone like Drew Dober Drew Dober Dober even if he counters because Drew Dober Drew Dober Dober being the shorter fighter he's going to have to extend a lot more which he already does in general he's going to be swinging this and that trying to pressure him on the cage one nice little uppercut and then uh choke him out can absolutely happen the way I think this actually plays out is that he's going to be hitting that big Blockhead so much that Drew Dober Drew Dober Dober is going to be looking to wrestle early as soon as he tries to shoot for that double and he sinks it in I think this could end in the first round I hope it does because if it gets to the second later in the second I'm scared regardless of who I even bet on I'm scared because at the end of the day something that you should also know is that Manuel Manuel Torres Manuel Torres hasn't seen a second round since 2018 it's been like 11 fights or something like that so obviously I'm a bit scared of his cardio especially in Mexico but it's not that he might not have the cardio obviously he looked tired against B mundez but when you get hit in the face you start gassing you start breathing funnier and especially because he has to as a fighter facing B mundez you have to overextend you have to try harder to hit someone as tall and lanky as B mundas you're going to get tired more so even if this gets to the second round I still lean mon Tes to win even get a sub early if they're not as sweaty yet um but like I said I think he can sink in a Gilly and just call it a night first round first two three minutes of the fight I can absolutely see that happening and I'm praying it happens that way but at plus 500 and Manuel Manuel Torres Manuel Torres has flipped his line on DraftKings right now is plus 100 when I first recorded my video for predictions he was like a minus 115 yeah minus 115 he was the favorite and now he's a dog so very interesting how this one's going to play out but plus 500 odds for something that he can absolutely do cuz like I said he might not have the power of people that have knocked out Drew Dober Drew Dober Dober but he definitely has the IQ to finish a fight by sub as well just saying plus 500 quarter unit”
Moneyline since pick CLV −2%
◆ entry$2.00 close$2.05
Torres’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted · analyst stated $6.00