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UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · breakdown

UFC 299 O'Malley vs Vera 2 FULL CARD Prediction and Breakdown

TM TY MMA61% hit
28 months ago 8W–6L
Picks, timestamped entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
MM Maryna Moroz v Joanne Wood PROP · DECISION LOST
“I'm going Maryna Moroz by decision she won the first fight I think she can win the second one as well”
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Moroz’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
AA Asu Almabayev v C.J. Vergara PROP · SUBMISSION LOST
“so I'm going to go SU alab bayv by submission”
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◆ entry$1.26 close$1.21
Almabayev’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
RD Robelis Despaigne v Josh Parisian PROP · KO/TKO WON
“I'm going rebellious in this fight first round KO”
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◆ entry$1.31 close$1.31
Despaigne’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
MV Marlon Vera v Sean O'Malley PROP · KO/TKO LOST
“I'm going to go Caba by TKO in the first late first round”
Moneyline since pick CLV +1%
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Vera’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
MG Mateusz Gamrot v Rafael dos Anjos PROP · DECISION WON
“I'm going to go with Mateusz Gamrot here I think his style D you say like a little bit similar to Kobe cubbington especially when they fought Rafael dos Anjos up a division now this is at lightweight where matus gamr is going to absolutely drown you although I don't think he mixes in the Striking I will say as well as Colby or at least what we perceived as K's last fight didn't look that well or looked that great but um I think he the pressure will just be a little bit too much for ha Doos even though Doos did pretty good then he's 39 years of age going down to lightweight to face matus gamr who I believe is what in the top five at this point I'm going to go with gamr here I think he's just going to be a little bit too much I think he's just going to end up drowning Doos in the SP I don't think it's going to be I think it's going to be like a 3027 decision”
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Gamrot’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
MP Michael Page v Kevin Holland PROP · DECISION WON
“I am going to go with Michael Page in this fight I I think his style is going to give Kevin Holland some problems I can just see him like tearing up his leg being super technical staying on the outside Kevin Holland just not being able to catch him”
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Page’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
BD Benoît Saint Denis v Dustin Poirier PROP · KO/TKO LOST
“I am going to switch my pick to Benoît Saint Denis I I actually thought about this one pretty pretty hard and heavy and I just don't know if I can trust doore after head KCK really bad head kick KO seven months ago in his last fight um I think Ben was singon when I did look at that at his fight when I went through the his early not early prediction when I did my early prediction for some of his fights I talked about the Thiago Moes fight where got very aggressive started punching against Thiago Moises against the fence and Thiago Moes was tagging him and Moes is not that great on the feet and Ben was Den's defense looked horrible which is kind of what influenced me to kind of pick Dustin Poirier and the early prediction however I just don't think Benoît Saint Denis he had respect for Thiago Wes on the feet and I do think he will have that respect for Dustin porier again when I talked about on the early prediction video I also mentioned that in the Michael Page fight against Dustin porier Michael Page was able to land a couple body kicks he kind of went away from it I think it was in like the first or second round I'm pretty sure it was the first before he actually hurt Dustin pory against the fence he hit him with a couple good body kicks and do didn't really do too much I think if probably Chandler stuck with it he probably could have done decent there but I think I am going to go with benan st Denise here I I think his body kicks is probably one of his strongest part of his game other than his uh wrestling he's a very strong Grappler you saw that against Thiago Moz is a very very strong guy on the on the ground I I think the body kicks are really going to be a big difference maker here especially in a five round fight I think it could definitely take the win out of DUS porier I don't the thing that Dustin por lost to in his last fight was a head kick and what Ben Was senones Won of course his last foot against Matt fola was the head kick as well but he didn't really set it up with the body kick too much in this fight he's going to be able to set it up if he continues to go to the body and if Dustin por is probably going to have his hands a little bit higher let's be real like we lost to a head kick in his last fight his guard might be a little bit higher so those body kicks are just going to be open a lot in this fight and eventually Dustin por is going to have to block down a little bit more and maybe that head kick will be there for benan St Denise again we don't know what Benoît Saint Denis's cardio will look like even if he does wrestle that is kind of a worry if he does wrestle what his cardio will look like however I do think his finishing ability is just going to be really really impactful for this fight I think it's definitely going to benefit him here I can see him finishing Dustin POR in like the second or third round I think he eats to the body my one worry is that he does get like an a little bit overzealous kind of like what Michael Page did when he hurt DUS and por he just starts going off on the fence and Benoît Saint Denis East gets tagged himself I know the only time we' really seen him get hurt was against I he got he got hit pretty hard against Thiago Moz when he was not as defensively aware and we we do realize that he's extremely tough and has a really good Shin as well so maybe you can take some of the shots against Dustin Poirier I I do think if this was like a a heavier power puncher I would be a little bit more worried about benan St Denise in this fight however I think a 35-year-old Dustin although he the outputs just might be a little bit too much for some of these guys where he just piles it on I don't think that's going to be the case for this one I I think again the body kicks are just going to be a little bit too strong for uh Ben Wason here he can rely on the grappling if he needs to I'm going Ben wases you can't really say TKO against Dustin so I'll say KO uh against DUS Poria here in the second or third round I think well I'm gonna go TKO I think he hurts the body pretty badly I think he kind of shuts DUS and porier down a little bit more and lands the TKO strikes takes him down and just ground and pounds him second or third round there again I think he just eats the body the only reason why I'm changing this one up is because I do think he didn't respect Thiago Moz on the feet and I I think that's mentally that that's kind of what I was thinking about not not specifically that fight just how this fight could definitely go because I feel like Dustin pory just like how Ben ju St Denise was trying to finish tho Moz he was in the same position against Michael Page was able to come back and hurt Michael Page pretty badly but Ben sanus has a lot better chin than Michael Page and I think he will stick to a game plan a little bit better has better F IQ for sure has very good wrestling as well and we've seen Dustin porier get absolutely out grappled and out wrestled On The Ground by Charles aloa Michael Page we didn't see it in the Justin gay fight but he got completely outclass on the ground and honestly when he just gets taken down he doesn't do anything so if Ben was ston wants to take a little bit of a break he can probably just chill on Dustin Poirier for like an entire round Dustin por won't even try to get up at this point so I'm going Ben was St Denise by TKO in the second or third round”
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Denis’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
SO Sean O'Malley v Marlon Vera PROP · DECISION WON
“I'm going to go with shano in this fight I think Cheeto although the first fight he did win he didn't look too great into I'm I'm I'm not going to get give you the cliff notes here but I'm going to go through it a little bit more if you want to check like a little bit more of an in- video um you can check out the video I made for this fight specifically but Sean O'Malley no going to the first fight Cheeto didn't look too great I'm goingon to be honest like he didn't land much obviously the fight didn't go on for too long and sha U's leg just completely went out so you never really know how that fight was going to go however I do think sha UI was probably going to win it because the output was a lot higher he was Landing a lot better on Cheeto before he did get knocked down and obviously he got finished on the ground as well so um that's is what it is it's the only loss on Sha Al's record which is why this is such an important fight for him shaal though I think is a really does a really good job at maintaining space on the outside is going to be able to maintain space between him and chido be with especially good footwork speed as well I think he's going to keep to the body and Cheeto is just going to try and walk forward I think his style of kind of just being very patient and just trying to find that shot is definitely goingon to hurt him here I think he's GNA kind of get frustrated because shaal again I think he's going to end up having Cheeto bear chase him around the Octagon this is basically what this is going to be it's a bigger octagon of course I mentioned that in my uh breakdowns that Cheeto bear is kind of used to fighting in those smaller octagons at the Apex and that won't benefit him here at all because what happens with when it's a smaller octagon you don't really have to go as far when you're fighting a guy that'll circle around kind of like similar to Dominick Cruz although he defensively he wasn't as aware as he normally is I know Dominick Cruz's style is kind of crazy but it's an older Dominic Cruz the the defense is going to be perfect he's able to track Dominick Cruz pretty good there I know Cory s hen fight he got destroyed that was a little bit different I I think that one was in the Apex right the the Cory San Haagen fight I can't remember if they were in an arena for that one I I oh it was in San Antonio so it was the bigger cage as well and Cory sandhagen just absolutely destroyed him there so Cheeto be what dominic Cruz got the win there Rob vont I mean even just talking about style there Rob vont just completely out strikes him and then just wins off of knockdowns is basically how Cheto bar won that fight like every single fight it seems like he's just getting completely outstruck and he gets the KO same thing with Frankie Edgar losing that fight until he gets to KO with the front kick very rough fights to watch especially because two of them are legends but that's just kind of a style and I think sha 's lengthier style it may going to be able to maintain some space from Cheto Vera keep at the body go at the legs as well I I think Cheto ver is just going to get very frustrated I think it's probably like 49 46 decision for Shao may maybe uh Cheeto be lands a couple good shots early on here but I do think shaal finds his range a little bit too quick and to throw too many faints at Cheeto bear just kind of freeze him up a little bit more doesn't really know what to to bite on for uh Cheeto bear here just kind of land that shot to take out Ali maybe he's going to try and just spam leg kicks and hopefully that Ecuadorian toe just completely destroys sha Mal's leg and just shuts it down again that would be pretty rough for especially for sha M because you can't really can't really do too much about that he does have some good checks he's been checking the L kicks pretty well especially uh recently but I'm going sha Mali by decision 4946 nothing too crazy to really predict for this fight I think it will be a little bit slower than maybe what some people are thinking I think if this does get into the ET Cheeto be is definitely going to win I just think the power is just a little bit too strong there sha M has a really good chin but again Cheeto bear is just going to be there the entire P I wonder what shanell is going to look like for five rounds here I wonder if he does wrestle you did see uh Cory San haen wrestle early on in their fight so you've seen a lot of guys that actually end up beating Cheto Vera wrestle early on and just able to hold him down and then Cheto Vera's take down defense definitely gets a lot better as the fight goes on Jose Aldo did the same thing Cory San Haagen they will mix into takedowns we'll see how this one goes we'll see if shaal wrestles early on I think because it is a five round fight you do I wonder what shaal is thinking with his cardio is that way but again I think he will be fine all five rounds I think 49 46 maybe 50 45 I think he's just going to be a little bit just going to out technique Cheeto bear throw too many faints freeze them up Cheeto bear is just not going to really know what to commit to to at at least anything I think maybe 49 46 you can say like maybe the last round cha probably gets where he just he like screw it I'm just going to try and walk this guy down and try and catch him with something maybe just lands a better shot similar to what he did the Corey sandhagen he kind of just said screw it towards like at the end and was able to land some shots there I don't know if the majority scorecards gave him that last round I know someone gave him the fight which was absolutely stupid one of the worst scorecards you'll ever see but Sean M by decision here”
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◆ entry$1.42 close$1.40
O'Malley’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
PM Pedro Munhoz v Kyler Phillips PROP · DECISION LOST
“I am going to go with Pedro Muno here I do like Kyler Phillips as a fighter like he's a very he he's got good grappling got good standup as well very Wildfire as well and um he's very entertaining to watch however I think Pedro Munhoz who did have some really good success against Sean O'Malley at least I mean just depending on how you view that fight it was just he threw only leg kicks and I don't even know necessarily how the scoring criteria looks at leg kicks especially if they're checked because it is damage based scoring however like a checked leg kick will do damage to the to the guy throwing it but you can't really I I don't know how they score it but I believe they did give Pedro Munoz that first round and I do think that the fact that that shut down om Al's game especially early on in that that fight I think it could do the same thing to Kyler Phillips the thing with Marlon Vera he was able to kind of just stand in the pocket just he he's durable really tough there I I think a guy like Kyler Phillips is going to get his legs shwed out very badly um I don't think he has a like a very solid jab like Cheeto bar actually had to step up his output but to even make it a very competitive fight with Pedro munas which he really needed to do cuz Cheeto Bear Just is way too um calm and then explode like like he's he's not active enough to go with Pedro Munhoz especially tip for Tat so he needed to do that I don't think Kyler Phillips can stand in the pocket just eat those leg kicks and and fire back there I I just don't think he can do that I think his legs are going to get chopped up I think this is going to go to a decision I think it just eliminates most of his offense Pedro Munhoz even though he is what 37 years of age very quick getting in um to the pie I know he will be at like a very big reach disadvantage here what seven in I think he's just going to be able to to pop in and out hit him with the leg kick and do kind of like what he did to Chris goodier just limit that that game a little bit more and I think Chris gooder throws a little bit more leg kicks than what Kyler Philips will do so he he's going to make it a little bit more challenging for a guy like Munoz on the outside even though Kyler Phillips is very dangerous and can wrestle and all that I don't think that's going to be a factor here here for this fight I think Pedro mun is just going to tear up his legs and win this one probably 29 28 maybe he does like land really well on Pedro mun Pedro Munhoz and just drops him at some point but I'm going Pedro Muno 2928 decision”
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◆ entry$3.07 close$3.00
Munhoz’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
PY Petr Yan v Song Yadong PROP · DECISION WON
“I'm going Petr Yan though I think he's going to be a lot technical on the lot more technical on the feet he does have the ability to trip and and rest a little bit more which I think will help him especially mixing in uh into this fight and I think it will definitely be a little bit of a Difference Maker I'm going to say 29 28”
Moneyline since pick CLV +4%
◆ entry$1.91 close$1.84
Yan’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
CB Curtis Blaydes v Jailton Almeida PROP · KO/TKO WON
“I'm going with j Al made in this fight I think he wins this one by ground and pound TKO”
Moneyline since pick CLV −4%
◆ entry$1.95 close$2.04
Blaydes’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
MP Michel Pereira v Michał Oleksiejczuk PROP · KO/TKO LOST
“I'm going to go with Michel Pereira up the car we have Michel Pereira versus Mall OIC again another interesting One Mall OIC is actually a pretty decent middleweight fighter however I am going to go with Michel Pereiraereira”
Moneyline since pick CLV −1%
◆ entry$1.69 close$1.71
Pereira’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
JM Jack Della Maddalena v Gilbert Burns PROP · KO/TKO WON
“I am going to go with Jack Della Maddalena in this fight I think he just gets the finish here against gilber Burns kind of just wipes that all out there gets a little bit more hype on him because I I just think the split decisions just look rough on his record when they really shouldn't even be there in the first place but I do think Jack Della Maddalena insane power once he gets in that like that flow State he can't really get he he his boxing is just so crisp I'm just going to be honest I I think he tags Gilbert Burns early on Gilbert Burns does kind of wing shots I think in this fight I think we'll see Jack Della Maddalena kind of hit his jab and and follow up with like a two and I think he will hit Burns pretty uh badly early on and I think Burns will feel the power and then we'll sense like okay I'm going to go for a Tak down Jack Della Maddalena is going to stuff it and I think we'll start to see Gil Burns start winging shots and I think it's going to get really sloppy I think Jack Della Maddalena is just going to be able to to weave out of the way and then counter gobert Burns and I think this might be a late first round or second round TKO win for Jack Della Maddalena”
Moneyline since pick CLV +10%
◆ entry$1.81 close$1.65
Maddalena’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
MB Maycee Barber v Katlyn Cerminara PROP · DECISION WON
“I'm going Maycee Barber by decision here I don't think there's going to be a finish it's going to be a decent fight though I think it's going to be pretty technical we'll see what Maycee Barber can bring here uh but I'm going Maycee Barber by decision uh 2928”
Analyst’s stated line
no market data captured for this fight