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Kattar vs ChikadzeMain Card · Featherweight
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Collier vs ShermanMain Card · Heavyweight
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Royval vs BontorinMain Card · Flyweight
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Chookagian vs MaiaMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
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Kelleher vs CroomPreliminary Card · Featherweight
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Brown vs RosaPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Collier vs ShermanMain Card · Heavyweight
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Royval vs BontorinMain Card · Flyweight
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Borshchev vs BushMain Card · Lightweight
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Pickett vs HolmesPreliminary Card · Middleweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Collier v Sherman
Heavyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Collier 13-10
VS
16-12 Sherman
—
height
6'4"
—
weight
254 lb
—
reach
78"
37
age
36
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
5.8
strikes landed / min
6.0
44%
striking accuracy
45%
5.1
strikes absorbed / min
6.7
50%
striking defence
52%
0.7
takedowns / 15 min
0.1
33%
takedown accuracy
50%
67%
takedown defence
74%
0.6
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TG
THE MMA GURU picks Jake Collier
“i'm gonna go with jake Jake Collier here”
THE MMA GURU picks Jake Collier
“i'm gonna go with jake Jake Collier here”
TM
The MMA-Holes picks Jake Collier VALUE
“I'm taking Jake Collier”
The MMA-Holes picks Jake Collier VALUE
“I'm taking Jake Collier”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Jake Collier VALUE
“i am going with Jake Collier for the win by ko over Chase Sherman”
$1.77
MMA EXPERTS picks Jake Collier VALUE
“i am going with Jake Collier for the win by ko over Chase Sherman”
$1.77
WP
We Want Picks picks Chase Sherman VALUE
“i think Chase Sherman probably wins the fight”
We Want Picks picks Chase Sherman VALUE
“i think Chase Sherman probably wins the fight”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Chase Sherman VALUE
“i like Chase Sherman 7700 probably gonna be low owned um and i think he has some finish upside there uh dakota Dakota Bush 7200 we talked about a little bit if he gets to fight down to the mata submission could be likely this is a guy that has multiple first-round finishes multiple first-round submissions Viacheslav Borshchev has not been tested all that much on the ground from what i have seen from borschev again he has a great get up game the takedown defense is questionable but if Dakota Bush can get him down you know maybe a submission could happen at 7 200 um kind of intriguing there and i think he's going to be very very low ellen because he is sandwiched in between uh T.J. Brown and brian Brian Kelleher who's going to get all the ownership so i do want to attack a lot of these 7k guys here uh Rogério Bontorin 7400 roy val fight fast pace bontron probably is able to get takedowns whenever he wants um potentially could knock out roy val who's very hittable and if monterey does one i do think it's going to be an early finish if he does not get roy val out of the early i do really uh i really question the cardio of bonterin and then especially you know going against roy val i really see it hard i i see um i'd be shocked if bonton was able to keep up with the pace of brandon roy fowler so i think if bonterman does win i think it's some type of early finish uh so at 7 400 i do have some interest in that uh pump plays Calvin Kattar 6900 yeah i mean the price deck is kind of ridiculous here if he is able to survive those first couple rounds which i do expect him to do you know maybe rounds three four and five could be close maybe he could take those maybe he can even get a late finish because we've seen giga you know slow down massively multiple times in three round fights and lose multiple three rounds um he has looked better as of late but again he's never seen a fourth round he's never seen a fifth round if he does see that here you know thousand hundred for calvin cater might not be the worst look in the world i personally like giga but um common cater to six to 100 is definitely tempting and then Charles Rosa 6800 we talked about a little bit about the the fight at qfT.J. Brown T.J. Brown dropping the ball more than once in only three fights uh the fight at qftg T.J. Brown worries me a lot and roses is a legit black belt and bjj so um i think rose is gonna have plenty of opportunities to to potentially win this fight at 6 800 i don't mind some Charles Rosa at all and then fades Katlyn Chookagian in 800 pretty simple here she has not had a finish in the ufc she's not going to go for takedown she's not going to get control time there's just i'd rather play anybody on this i'd rather save over a thousand and get a T.J. Brown and save over a thousand and get to kelleher this week so there's no point in playing caitlyn chukagan but yeah guys that is about it that is the video um i posted everything on the website and on uh patreon for uh this late i got out the lineup percentages uh the optimizer is all updated the projections the ownership projections uh the article just got out as well yeah everything's out so uh go check that out if you have not yet if again if you are a current patreon and you want to sign up for the website let me know when you do and i'll refund you on patreon but you got ten dollars a month go check that out guys uh leave a like on the video subscribe to the channel if you have not yet we'll talk to you very soon good luck for ufc vegas 46”
$78.00
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Chase Sherman VALUE
“i like Chase Sherman 7700 probably gonna be low owned um and i think he has some finish upside there uh dakota Dakota Bush 7200 we talked about a little bit if he gets to fight down to the mata submission could be likely this is a guy that has multiple first-round finishes multiple first-round submissions Viacheslav Borshchev has not been tested all that much on the ground from what i have seen from borschev again he has a great get up game the takedown defense is questionable but if Dakota Bush can get him down you know maybe a submission could happen at 7 200 um kind of intriguing there and i think he's going to be very very low ellen because he is sandwiched in between uh T.J. Brown and brian Brian Kelleher who's going to get all the ownership so i do want to attack a lot of these 7k guys here uh Rogério Bontorin 7400 roy val fight fast pace bontron probably is able to get takedowns whenever he wants um potentially could knock out roy val who's very hittable and if monterey does one i do think it's going to be an early finish if he does not get roy val out of the early i do really uh i really question the cardio of bonterin and then especially you know going against roy val i really see it hard i i see um i'd be shocked if bonton was able to keep up with the pace of brandon roy fowler so i think if bonterman does win i think it's some type of early finish uh so at 7 400 i do have some interest in that uh pump plays Calvin Kattar 6900 yeah i mean the price deck is kind of ridiculous here if he is able to survive those first couple rounds which i do expect him to do you know maybe rounds three four and five could be close maybe he could take those maybe he can even get a late finish because we've seen giga you know slow down massively multiple times in three round fights and lose multiple three rounds um he has looked better as of late but again he's never seen a fourth round he's never seen a fifth round if he does see that here you know thousand hundred for calvin cater might not be the worst look in the world i personally like giga but um common cater to six to 100 is definitely tempting and then Charles Rosa 6800 we talked about a little bit about the the fight at qfT.J. Brown T.J. Brown dropping the ball more than once in only three fights uh the fight at qftg T.J. Brown worries me a lot and roses is a legit black belt and bjj so um i think rose is gonna have plenty of opportunities to to potentially win this fight at 6 800 i don't mind some Charles Rosa at all and then fades Katlyn Chookagian in 800 pretty simple here she has not had a finish in the ufc she's not going to go for takedown she's not going to get control time there's just i'd rather play anybody on this i'd rather save over a thousand and get a T.J. Brown and save over a thousand and get to kelleher this week so there's no point in playing caitlyn chukagan but yeah guys that is about it that is the video um i posted everything on the website and on uh patreon for uh this late i got out the lineup percentages uh the optimizer is all updated the projections the ownership projections uh the article just got out as well yeah everything's out so uh go check that out if you have not yet if again if you are a current patreon and you want to sign up for the website let me know when you do and i'll refund you on patreon but you got ten dollars a month go check that out guys uh leave a like on the video subscribe to the channel if you have not yet we'll talk to you very soon good luck for ufc vegas 46”
$78.00
WP
We Want Picks picks Chase Sherman
“i'm going chase sherman”
We Want Picks picks Chase Sherman
“i'm going chase sherman”
MP
MMA Prophecy picks Jake Collier
“Jake Collier will catch him obama take jay Jake Collier i think the got anything for him and i said Jake Collier's so that pick Jake Collier to get the win”
MMA Prophecy picks Jake Collier
“Jake Collier will catch him obama take jay Jake Collier i think the got anything for him and i said Jake Collier's so that pick Jake Collier to get the win”
WP
We Want Picks picks Jake Collier VALUE
“i'm syed all the way in this fight and i think he dominates this fight”
We Want Picks picks Jake Collier VALUE
“i'm syed all the way in this fight and i think he dominates this fight”
WP
We Want Picks picks Chase Sherman
“i think Chase Sherman wins but you know listen i think it's gonna be at three rounds a million punches thrown and the judges whatever they see they see i think it's literally that simple of a breakdown because these guys are so evenly matched”
We Want Picks picks Chase Sherman
“i think Chase Sherman wins but you know listen i think it's gonna be at three rounds a million punches thrown and the judges whatever they see they see i think it's literally that simple of a breakdown because these guys are so evenly matched”
KU
Kunath picks Chase Sherman VALUE
“the pick for me tentatively is Chase Sherman”
Kunath picks Chase Sherman VALUE
“the pick for me tentatively is Chase Sherman”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Chase Sherman VALUE
“i'm actually going to go with gomez juarez here as the dog to kick off the year and i'm going to take savannah gomez wars to win by decision”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Chase Sherman VALUE
“i'm actually going to go with gomez juarez here as the dog to kick off the year and i'm going to take savannah gomez wars to win by decision”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Collier13-10
L
Usman
Sep '23
L
Buday
Apr '23
L
Barnett
Sep '22
L
Arlovski
Apr '22
W
Sherman
Jan '22
Sherman16-12
L
Williams
May '23
L
Cortes-Acosta
Nov '22
W
Vanderaa
Jul '22
L
Romanov
Apr '22
L
Collier
Jan '22