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Brown vs RosaPreliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Brown v Rosa
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Brown 17-11
VS
14-8 Rosa
—
height
—
—
weight
—
—
reach
—
36
age
39
Switch
stance
Switch
3.4
strikes landed / min
3.1
44%
striking accuracy
36%
2.9
strikes absorbed / min
3.9
49%
striking defence
47%
3.4
takedowns / 15 min
1.7
57%
takedown accuracy
35%
36%
takedown defence
38%
1.3
submissions / 15 min
1.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TG
THE MMA GURU picks T.J. Brown
“i can see T.J. Brown winning this one 29-28 by unanimous decision”
THE MMA GURU picks T.J. Brown
“i can see T.J. Brown winning this one 29-28 by unanimous decision”
TM
The MMA-Holes picks Charles Rosa VALUE
“Charles Rosa is getting paid peanuts for a champion had enough and he wants to get paid”
The MMA-Holes picks Charles Rosa VALUE
“Charles Rosa is getting paid peanuts for a champion had enough and he wants to get paid”
TM
The MMA-Holes picks T.J. Brown VALUE
“I think T.J. Brown gets it done”
The MMA-Holes picks T.J. Brown VALUE
“I think T.J. Brown gets it done”
WP
We Want Picks picks T.J. Brown VALUE
“i still think T.J. Brown should win he should get the takedowns”
$72.00
We Want Picks picks T.J. Brown VALUE
“i still think T.J. Brown should win he should get the takedowns”
$72.00
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks T.J. Brown VALUE
“i'm going to have a lot of T.J. Brown because you have to but i will have a decent amount of rose because T.J. Brown is somebody that i really question this fight iq this is a guy that has had three fights in the ufc and he's pulled two massive stunts in three fights um you know he got submitted by jordan griffin from side control um what was the other one he went out there against chavez and refused to shoot a takedown and got his legs picked apart so i really question this guy's fight iq so i'm not gonna go like crazy on T.J. Brown i think i have around like 50 but i also have a decent amount of charles rose who will talk about who i think is a very sneaky play this week but you've got to have T.J. Brown he's a big big favorite second biggest favorite in the card and he's one of the cheapest fighters so you got to play him but i'm a little bit iffy about it”
$1.40
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks T.J. Brown VALUE
“i'm going to have a lot of T.J. Brown because you have to but i will have a decent amount of rose because T.J. Brown is somebody that i really question this fight iq this is a guy that has had three fights in the ufc and he's pulled two massive stunts in three fights um you know he got submitted by jordan griffin from side control um what was the other one he went out there against chavez and refused to shoot a takedown and got his legs picked apart so i really question this guy's fight iq so i'm not gonna go like crazy on T.J. Brown i think i have around like 50 but i also have a decent amount of charles rose who will talk about who i think is a very sneaky play this week but you've got to have T.J. Brown he's a big big favorite second biggest favorite in the card and he's one of the cheapest fighters so you got to play him but i'm a little bit iffy about it”
$1.40
MJ
MMA JOEY picks Charles Rosa VALUE
“figgy takes the belt back”
MMA JOEY picks Charles Rosa VALUE
“figgy takes the belt back”
WP
We Want Picks picks T.J. Brown VALUE
“i like T.J. Brown T.J. Brown at 7 100 and let's look at what he does here you know in his in his win against kai kamaka who a lot of people thought he lost that fight he had two takedowns some control time a bunch of strikes and he scored 80 points and if i get 80 points or 79 points out of a 7100 fighter i'm happy with that so i think T.J. Brown is good value i think T.J. Brown can make something happen in that fight”
We Want Picks picks T.J. Brown VALUE
“i like T.J. Brown T.J. Brown at 7 100 and let's look at what he does here you know in his in his win against kai kamaka who a lot of people thought he lost that fight he had two takedowns some control time a bunch of strikes and he scored 80 points and if i get 80 points or 79 points out of a 7100 fighter i'm happy with that so i think T.J. Brown is good value i think T.J. Brown can make something happen in that fight”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks T.J. Brown VALUE
“i'm actually going to go T.J. Brown to to mix in the takedowns”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks T.J. Brown VALUE
“i'm actually going to go T.J. Brown to to mix in the takedowns”
GP
Greedo Plays picks Charles Rosa
“gimme gay remotely benitez to beat tj brown i think mowgli gets it done with a decision victory”
Greedo Plays picks Charles Rosa
“gimme gay remotely benitez to beat tj brown i think mowgli gets it done with a decision victory”
WP
We Want Picks picks T.J. Brown
“if i had to bet i put my money on god”
We Want Picks picks T.J. Brown
“if i had to bet i put my money on god”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Brown17-11
L
Elkins
Oct '23
L
Algeo
Apr '23
W
Silva
Dec '22
L
Nuerdanbieke
Jun '22
W
Rosa
Jan '22
Rosa14-8
L
Wood
Jul '22
L
Brown
Jan '22
L
Jackson
Oct '21
W
Jaynes
Jun '21
L
Minner
Feb '21