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UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez
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RD AH Dolidze vs HernandezMain Card · Middleweight ES TK Smith vs KazamaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight MJ JM Johns vs MatsumotoMain Card · Bantamweight GF JS Fernandes vs StoliarenkoPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight IL AH Lucindo vs HillMain Card · Women'S Strawweight AF CR Fili vs RodriguezMain Card · Featherweight EA CD Anders vs DuncanMain Card · Middleweight JE PC Edwards vs CachoeiraPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight UM GU Medić vs UrbinaPreliminary Card · Welterweight SE OO Erceg vs OsbourneMain Card · Bantamweight CB EM Brundage vs McConicoPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight JW RC Walker vs CerqueiraPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
BEST PRICE We back Matsumoto over Johns · Bantamweight Our fair value$1.39 Betway pays above fair $1.44
Where to back Matsumoto best price · region · EV vs fair $1.39
US DraftKings $1.41 +1%
UK Betway $1.44 +3%
EU Pinnacle $1.43 +3%
AU Ladbrokes AU $1.42 +2%
Consensus28 picks · conf 52/99
Johns 6
22 Matsumoto
bPATMF pick Johns
How it endsmethod calls · Matsumoto · crowd line
KO/TKO 2 $17.41
Submission 3 $11.61
Decision 20 $1.74
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Johns 15-2 VS 17-2 Matsumoto
5'7" height 5'6"
136 lb weight 135 lb
68" reach 69"
32 age 26
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.3 strikes landed / min 5.2
47% striking accuracy 40%
2.5 strikes absorbed / min 5.0
69% striking defence 46%
1.0 takedowns / 15 min 1.1
20% takedown accuracy 27%
85% takedown defence 57%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.4
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market72% vs 69%
Consensus22 of 28 analysts
Sharpest angleMatsumoto by Decision — 20 of 25 method calls
Recommendation Back Matsumoto @ $1.44 · fair $1.39 +3% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Jean Matsumoto “I probably have him by decision, but uh Jean Matsumoto on this one.”
BM balls magee picks Miles Johns “I'm probably going to go with Jean.”
MR Milo Reyes picks Miles Johns VALUE “Miles is definitely going to win 100%.”
LM Livid Larry MMA picks Jean Matsumoto “My main card picks will be Christian Leroy Duncan, Jean Matsumoto, Christian Rodriguez, Angela Hill, Steve Ersg, and Roman Dolidze”
GM Gordon Talks MMA picks Jean Matsumoto “I've got him by unanimous decision. I think he can take all three rounds” $1.31
SH Showtime50k picks Jean Matsumoto “I got Jean Matsumoto uh by”
GP Ground"N"Pound Podcast picks Jean Matsumoto “I feel confident him for the first leg here of our slam of the week.”
MM Mr. Martin picks Jean Matsumoto “So, I'm gonna give this one to Gan.”
GM GC MMA picks Jean Matsumoto “I'll go with Matsumoto.”
BB Blood and Beer picks Miles Johns “I think John Matsumoto is getting it done.”
BB Blood and Beer picks Jean Matsumoto “Jean Matsumoto, Steve Ersk, Anthony Fluffy Anthony Hernandez”
LM Luminary MMA picks Jean Matsumoto “I do trust in Jean Matsumoto”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Johns15-2
L Marcos Submission · R2 Nov '25
L Matsumoto Decision · R3 Aug '25
L Lima Decision · R3 Dec '24
W Andrade Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Gibson Decision · R3 Mar '24
Matsumoto17-2
W Almakhan Decision · R3 Jun '26
L Basharat Decision · R3 Feb '26
W Johns Decision · R3 Aug '25
L Font Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Katona Decision · R3 Oct '24