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UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez
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RD AH Dolidze vs HernandezMain Card · Middleweight ES TK Smith vs KazamaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight MJ JM Johns vs MatsumotoMain Card · Bantamweight GF JS Fernandes vs StoliarenkoPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight IL AH Lucindo vs HillMain Card · Women'S Strawweight AF CR Fili vs RodriguezMain Card · Featherweight EA CD Anders vs DuncanMain Card · Middleweight JE PC Edwards vs CachoeiraPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight UM GU Medić vs UrbinaPreliminary Card · Welterweight SE OO Erceg vs OsbourneMain Card · Bantamweight CB EM Brundage vs McConicoPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight JW RC Walker vs CerqueiraPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
BEST PRICE We back Erceg over Osbourne · Bantamweight Our fair value$1.16 Pinnacle pays above fair $1.19
Where to back Erceg best price · region · EV vs fair $1.16
US FanDuel $1.17 +1%
UK Betway $1.18 +2%
EU Pinnacle $1.19 +3%
AU PointsBet (AU) $1.18 +2%
Consensus35 picks · conf 58/99
Erceg 33
2 Osbourne
HPMBHM pick Erceg
How it endsmethod calls · Erceg · crowd line
KO/TKO 11 $3.06
Submission 11 $3.06
Decision 6 $5.60
None 1 $33.62
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Erceg 13-4 VS 13-9 Osbourne
5'8" height 5'7"
125 lb weight 135 lb
68" reach 73"
30 age 34
Orthodox stance Southpaw
4.4 strikes landed / min 3.3
48% striking accuracy 40%
4.2 strikes absorbed / min 4.0
53% striking defence 45%
1.2 takedowns / 15 min 1.2
26% takedown accuracy 28%
60% takedown defence 63%
0.5 submissions / 15 min 0.6
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market86% vs 84%
Consensus33 of 35 analysts
Sharpest angleErceg by KO/TKO — 11 of 29 method calls
Recommendation Back Erceg @ $1.19 · fair $1.16 +3% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Steve Erceg “Steve Erceg's going to get it done.”
YU YungBenny picks Steve Erceg “I'm going towards Steve Ersk.”
NO notnicecole picks Steve Erceg “They really want to rebuild Steve Erceg.”
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Ode' Osbourne VALUE “I like this fight to go all 15 minutes, and I like Ode' Osbourne to make it a little bit more competitive than the money line suggests.” $5.30
MR Milo Reyes picks Steve Erceg VALUE “I definitely see Steve Ursig winning.”
HN Hidden Source News picks Steve Erceg “Our pick, Steve Erceg.”
GM GLO MMA picks Steve Erceg VALUE “I'm going to go ahead and pick uh Steve decision.”
BO BotmfeederMMA picks Steve Erceg “We're going to go with Steve Ursk.”
PH PhonePicksMMA picks Steve Erceg “I'm going to go with Ursk to win this.”
AS AJ Let's Talk Sports picks Steve Erceg “Steve Erceg got to get off the schneide here and beat this Jamaican at T-Mobile Arena.”
PP Primal Instinct Fight Picks picks Steve Erceg “I'm backing Steve Erceg to bounce back from three losses in a row and get the victory over Ode' Osbourne”
MM Mr. Martin picks Steve Erceg “but I'm going to give this one to Steve Erceg.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Erceg13-4
W Elliott Decision · R3 May '26
W Osbourne Decision · R3 Aug '25
L Moreno Decision · R5 Mar '25
L Kara-France KO/TKO · R1 Aug '24
L Pantoja Decision · R5 May '24
Osbourne13-9
L Idiris Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Erceg Decision · R3 Aug '25
W Gurule KO/TKO · R2 Apr '25
L Rodríguez Decision · R3 Sep '24
L Filho Submission · R1 Mar '24