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KR NC Rosa vs CornolleMain Card · Women'S Bantamweight NK AP Klein vs PulyaevPreliminary Card · Middleweight RV TG Vieira vs GorePreliminary Card · Catchweight RN NF Nakamura vs FletcherPreliminary Card · Bantamweight MR CD Rębecki vs DuncanMain Card · Lightweight EB ER Brener vs RibovicsMain Card · Lightweight NM ES Magny vs SantosMain Card · Welterweight DS KV Silva vs VallejosMain Card · Featherweight TT PH Taira vs Hyun-sungMain Card · Flyweight AB JY Bashi vs YannisPreliminary Card · Featherweight RE FB Estevam vs BunesPreliminary Card · Catchweight PR KS Rodríguez vs SouzaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Nakamura v Fletcher Bantamweight Our fair value $1.30 best price $1.28 PASS · MARKET AGREES
Where to back Nakamura best price · region · EV vs fair $1.30
US BetMGM $1.27 -3%
UK Paddy Power $1.25 -4%
EU Pinnacle $1.27 -3%
AU Ladbrokes AU $1.28 -2%
Consensus30 picks · conf 54/99
Nakamura 23
7 Fletcher
LBTTTM pick Nakamura
How it endsmethod calls · Nakamura · crowd line
KO/TKO 4 $5.22
Submission 1 $20.87
Decision 11 $1.90
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Nakamura 9-0 VS 9-1 Fletcher
5'7" height 5'7"
136 lb weight 135 lb
69" reach 70"
31 age 28
Southpaw stance Orthodox
3.5 strikes landed / min 2.2
54% striking accuracy 70%
1.4 strikes absorbed / min 1.0
67% striking defence 40%
3.7 takedowns / 15 min 9.6
90% takedown accuracy 66%
100% takedown defence 0%
1.6 submissions / 15 min 2.4
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market77% vs 78%
Consensus23 of 30 analysts
Sharpest angleNakamura by Decision — 11 of 16 method calls
Recommendation Pass — no edge model agrees with the market PASS
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TG The Fight Guy picks Rinya Nakamura “I'm going to go with Rinya Nakamura to win this fight, though. I think this is going to be a closer fight than people expect it to be than the odds say it will be, but I think Rinya Nakamura will win a decision here.”
MM MMAnomaly picks Rinya Nakamura “I'm going to go with Henya on this one.” $1.24
LJ Lucrative James picks Rinya Nakamura “I feel like he's got Nathan covered”
KP Knockout Picks picks Nathan Fletcher VALUE “I got Nathan Fletcher.” $4.00
OZ Ozzy picks Rinya Nakamura “I think Rinya Nakamura is going to win this fight pretty easily. ... I'm going to go with Renya Nakamore decision by um Domination.”
GM GLO MMA picks Nathan Fletcher “this pick Nathan Fletcher. He's just the Nathan Fletcher is going to win”
LM Luminary MMA picks Rinya Nakamura “I'm picking Ra here, dude.”
UT UFC Predictions Tracker picks Rinya Nakamura “62 out of 71 predict he will win this fight for 87%... for a decision win, we have 33 channels going with Rinya Nakamura.” $1.24
FF Fite Feed picks Rinya Nakamura “I am going with Rinya Nakamura in this fight.”
MM Mayor MMA picks Nathan Fletcher “I'm going to pick Rene Mc Nakamura.”
US Uselyis picks Rinya Nakamura “Reena plus Tatsuro Taira minus 179.”
TH TheFinalRoundHQ picks Rinya Nakamura “I'm going to choose Rinya Nakamura.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Nakamura9-0
W Fletcher KO/TKO · R1 Aug '25
L Gafurov Decision · R3 Jan '25
W Vera Decision · R3 Feb '24
W Garcia Decision · R3 Aug '23
W Kazama KO/TKO · R1 Feb '23
Fletcher9-1
L Nakamura KO/TKO · R1 Aug '25
L Loughran Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Ramaška Submission · R2 Sep '24