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BEST PRICE We back Bunes over Estevam · Catchweight Our fair value$6.92 Pinnacle pays above fair $7.00
Where to back Bunes best price · region · EV vs fair $6.92
US DraftKings $6.75 -2%
UK Virgin Bet $5.80 -16%
EU Pinnacle $7.00 +1%
AU Neds $6.20 -10%
Consensus20 picks · conf 43/99
Estevam 17
3 Bunes
LMMKUR pick Estevam
How it endsmethod calls · Bunes · crowd line
Decision 1 $6.92
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Estevam 14-0 VS 14-8 Bunes
5'8" height 5'7"
135 lb weight 125 lb
69" reach 69"
29 age 36
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.9 strikes landed / min 5.2
64% striking accuracy 54%
3.4 strikes absorbed / min 8.7
34% striking defence 41%
3.4 takedowns / 15 min 3.1
19% takedown accuracy 33%
0% takedown defence 0%
0.7 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market14% vs 14%
Consensus3 of 20 analysts
Sharpest angleBunes by Decision — 1 of 1 method calls
Recommendation Back Bunes @ $7.00 · fair $6.92 +1% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
US Uselyis picks Rafael Estevam VALUE “I think Rafael Estevam is going to win this fight. Give me Rafael Estevam by points at a plus 110. I like Rafael Estevam by decision.” $1.19
TG The Fight Guy picks Rafael Estevam “I'm going to go with him to win this fight. I think he'll control all aspects. I think he'll find a finish. Probably a knockout win maybe in the second round.”
MM MMAnomaly picks Rafael Estevam “I cannot look past Rafael Estavam.” $1.16
MM MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Felipe Bunes VALUE “I'm going to go with the underdog. I'm going to go with the upset here and I'm going to predict Felipe Bunes puts a zero on or puts a takes a zero from Rafa Esteban Ribovics”
KP Knockout Picks picks Rafael Estevam VALUE “I'm going to pick Rafael Estevam.”
OZ Ozzy picks Rafael Estevam “I'm going with [ __ ] Rafa. ... yeah, I'mma go with uh Raphael Estan. I haven't been given [ __ ] uh decision decision and I'mma go with Felipe Bunes and Rafa Estan to also go to decision.”
LM Luminary MMA picks Rafael Estevam “I'm going to be picking Rafael Estabb here.”
UT UFC Predictions Tracker picks Rafael Estevam “66 out of 69. Also for 96% go with Rafael Estevam.” $1.19
RM Rare MMA picks Rafael Estevam “I think Rafael Estevam is just a better fighter, but I could see him dropping round one, picking up round two and three for a 2928 decision.”
MP MCA PICKS picks Rafael Estevam “tengo a Rafael Estevam”
FF Fite Feed picks Rafael Estevam VALUE “I am picking for this matchup is going to be Raphael Estee Vam.”
US Uselyis picks Rafael Estevam “Give me Rafael for the dub.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Estevam14-0
L Ewing KO/TKO · R3 Apr '26
W Bunes Decision · R3 Aug '25
W Aguilar Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Johnson Decision · R3 Nov '23
Bunes14-8
L Cháirez Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Estevam Decision · R3 Aug '25
W Johnson Submission · R1 Jan '25
L Van KO/TKO · R2 Jan '24