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UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
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AV DL Volkanovski vs LopesMain Card · Featherweight DH BD Hooker vs DenisMain Card · Lightweight RF MR Fiziev vs RuffyMain Card · Lightweight TT TT Tuivasa vs TeixeiraMain Card · Heavyweight QS JM Salkilld vs MullarkeyMain Card · Lightweight JT BE Tafa vs ElekanaPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight CR CB Rowston vs BrundagePreliminary Card · Middleweight JM TF Malkoun vs FinneyPreliminary Card · Middleweight JM OE Micallef vs ElliottPreliminary Card · Welterweight KO YZ Ofli vs ZhaEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight KS DF Sang-wook vs FanEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight KN SS Nakamura vs SzalayEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight LL SU Lui vs SulangrangboEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE We back Micallef over Elliott · Welterweight Our fair value$2.04 Caesars pays above fair $2.50
Where to back Micallef best price · region · EV vs fair $2.04
US Caesars $2.50 +22%
UK LeoVegas $2.28 +12%
EU Unibet (NL) $2.12 +4%
AU Unibet $2.12 +4%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.82
Consensus146 picks · conf 99/99
Micallef 80
66 Elliott
TFMMMD pick Micallef
How it endsmethod calls · Micallef · crowd line
KO/TKO 2 $12.27
Submission 1 $24.53
Decision 9 $2.73
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Micallef 9-1 VS 12-4 Elliott
6'0" height 6'0"
170 lb weight 169 lb
77" reach 72"
27 age 28
Southpaw stance Orthodox
3.3 strikes landed / min 2.4
56% striking accuracy 51%
4.7 strikes absorbed / min 2.2
63% striking defence 72%
2.1 takedowns / 15 min 1.5
57% takedown accuracy 64%
61% takedown defence 58%
0.8 submissions / 15 min 0.7
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market49% vs 40%
Consensus80 of 146 analysts
Sharpest angleMicallef by Decision — 9 of 12 method calls
Recommendation Back Micallef @ $2.50 · fair $2.04 +22% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CM Crashout MMA picks Jonathan Micallef VALUE “Jonathan Micallef uh I'm pretty sure he he choked out open Elliot”
IE IENJOYFIGHTS picks Oban Elliott VALUE “he got the takedown and got his back got the rear naked choke in the second round.”
KM Knuckles MMA picks Jonathan Micallef VALUE “I have Jonathan winning that fight”
FI FightCircuit picks Oban Elliott “Oban Elliott is versus”
NI Nick23mma picks Oban Elliott VALUE “Jonathan Micallef versus Oban McAuliffe to be Oban Elliott”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Oban Elliott VALUE “I'm leaning the the Oban Elliott side. Um, Oban Elliott here” $2.10
TS The Mike Finch Show picks Jonathan Micallef “Give me Jacob McAlliff over Oban Elliott. I'm going dog here, guys.”
MM Minted MMA picks Oban Elliott “I have Oban Elliott via round two K.O.”
CO CouchWarrior1 picks Oban Elliott “I've got Oban Elliott winning that on here.”
CR Chris Roman picks Oban Elliott “Jonathan Micallef versus Oban Elliott. Oban Elliott.”
MM MMA Milton picks Oban Elliott “Uh I think Oban Elliott's going to win. ... so I'm gonna go Oban Elliott”
FM FATALITY MMA picks Jonathan Micallef “I am going to take Jonathan Micallef in this one. I think he gets this done by submission.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Micallef9-1
W Gorimbo Decision · R3 May '26
W Elliott Submission · R2 Feb '26
W Jousset Decision · R3 Feb '25
Elliott12-4
L Micallef Submission · R2 Feb '26
L Seok-hyun Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Hafez KO/TKO · R3 Nov '24
W Parsons Decision · R3 Jul '24
W Woodburn Decision · R3 Feb '24