MMA Prophecy
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UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
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MB VO Bautista vs OliveiraMain Card · Bantamweight AA KH Albazi vs HoriguchiMain Card · Flyweight JA RK Almeida vs KunievMain Card · Heavyweight MO MB Oleksiejczuk vs BarriaultMain Card · Middleweight JM FB Matsumoto vs BasharatMain Card · Bantamweight DJ JW Jacoby vs WalkerMain Card · Light Heavyweight AM DD Morono vs DonchenkoPreliminary Card · Welterweight BB KS Brasil vs SouzaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight WC EM Cong vs MouraPreliminary Card · Catchweight MG JW Gafurov vs WikłaczPreliminary Card · Catchweight KS PC Syguła vs CachoeiraPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight NV NP Veretennikov vs PricePreliminary Card · Welterweight JB GV Basharat vs VázquezPreliminary Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE We back Bautista over Oliveira · Bantamweight Our fair value$1.60 Caesars pays above fair $1.71
Where to back Bautista best price · region · EV vs fair $1.60
US Caesars $1.71 +7%
UK Virgin Bet $1.68 +5%
EU Coolbet $1.70 +6%
AU Ladbrokes AU $1.70 +6%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.75
Consensus195 picks · conf 99/99
Bautista 129
66 Oliveira
UMPJTF pick Bautista
How it endsmethod calls · Bautista · crowd line
KO/TKO 5 $7.68
Submission 1 $38.38
Decision 17 $2.26
None 1 $38.38
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Bautista 16-3 VS 23-4 Oliveira
5'9" height 5'9"
135 lb weight 145 lb
69" reach 70"
33 age 30
Switch stance Switch
5.3 strikes landed / min 5.9
47% striking accuracy 43%
3.9 strikes absorbed / min 2.9
54% striking defence 53%
1.9 takedowns / 15 min 1.4
33% takedown accuracy 60%
66% takedown defence 68%
0.9 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market63% vs 58%
Consensus129 of 195 analysts
Sharpest angleBautista by Decision — 17 of 24 method calls
Recommendation Back Bautista @ $1.71 · fair $1.60 +7% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TE Teep_Muaythai picks Vinicius Oliveira “I'll just pick Vinicius Oliveira by around Tokyo for the funsies.”
IM Industry Plant MMA picks Vinicius Oliveira VALUE “Mario Bautista, I'm going Vinicius Oliveira”
MJ Mukbang with jj picks Vinicius Oliveira “Mario Bautista probably wins. Mario Bautista is actually probably like give me I think Vinicius Oliveira will KO I like Vinicius Oliveira's odds here.”
MC McManusMMA picks Mario Bautista “I think Mario Bautista is going to win this fight”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Mario Bautista “I'm going to go with Mario Mario Bautista only because I think his cardio is going to endure longer than Venicious Vinicius Oliveira.”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Mario Bautista VALUE “I Mario Bautista here to win this fight”
BM Bozing MMA picks Mario Bautista “But I think that later on in the four, five, Mario Bautista will be able to just outcardio him, cardio mo him and take it to a decision.”
PI PibbleMMA picks Mario Bautista VALUE “I'm gonna take Mario Bautista Batista.”
MM MMAInstigator picks Mario Bautista “My pick is Mario Bautista to heavy.”
DO DonDaDa02 picks Mario Bautista VALUE “I think Mario Bautista is going to have a lot more success... I think Mario Bautista is going to beat Olivivera by unanimous decision.”
TR TrueComboMMA picks Mario Bautista “edge Mario Bautista, man. I feel like and I don't think that Mario Bautista I fight? I want to see Mario Bautista in a fight, man.”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Mario Bautista “Mario Bautista is the much better fighter here. and he can knock out Mario Bautista. It's it's very much on the table.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Bautista16-3
W Oliveira Submission · R2 Feb '26
L Nurmagomedov Decision · R3 Oct '25
W Mix Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Aldo Decision · R3 Oct '24
W Simón Decision · R3 Jan '24
Oliveira23-4
W Fili KO/TKO · R2 Jun '26
L Bautista Submission · R2 Feb '26
W Phillips Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Nurmagomedov Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Simón Decision · R3 Jun '24