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UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
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MB VO Bautista vs OliveiraMain Card · Bantamweight AA KH Albazi vs HoriguchiMain Card · Flyweight JA RK Almeida vs KunievMain Card · Heavyweight MO MB Oleksiejczuk vs BarriaultMain Card · Middleweight JM FB Matsumoto vs BasharatMain Card · Bantamweight DJ JW Jacoby vs WalkerMain Card · Light Heavyweight AM DD Morono vs DonchenkoPreliminary Card · Welterweight BB KS Brasil vs SouzaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight WC EM Cong vs MouraPreliminary Card · Catchweight MG JW Gafurov vs WikłaczPreliminary Card · Catchweight KS PC Syguła vs CachoeiraPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight NV NP Veretennikov vs PricePreliminary Card · Welterweight JB GV Basharat vs VázquezPreliminary Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE We back Almeida over Kuniev · Heavyweight Our fair value$1.63 LeoVegas (SE) pays above fair $1.68
Where to back Almeida best price · region · EV vs fair $1.63
US BetRivers $1.62 -1%
UK Betway $1.67 +2%
EU LeoVegas (SE) $1.68 +3%
AU Unibet $1.62 -1%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.61
Consensus167 picks · conf 99/99
Almeida 107
60 Kuniev
TMTMUL pick Almeida
How it endsmethod calls · Almeida · crowd line
KO/TKO 5 $7.51
Submission 14 $2.68
Decision 4 $9.38
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Almeida 22-4 VS 12-3-1 Kuniev
6'3" height 6'4"
237 lb weight 264 lb
79" reach 76"
35 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.5 strikes landed / min 5.8
64% striking accuracy 72%
0.7 strikes absorbed / min 1.2
40% striking defence 55%
6.8 takedowns / 15 min 2.8
59% takedown accuracy 75%
75% takedown defence 100%
2.6 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market61% vs 60%
Consensus107 of 167 analysts
Sharpest angleAlmeida by Submission — 14 of 23 method calls
Recommendation Back Almeida @ $1.68 · fair $1.63 +3% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MC McManusMMA picks Jailton Almeida “I think Jailton Almeida is going to win this fight.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Jailton Almeida “I'm gonna I got to go with Jailton Almeida.”
ES etoft21 sports picks Jailton Almeida VALUE “I take Almeida short notice on brutal assignment here... I think he's going to be able to control this fight wherever it goes.”
BM Bozing MMA picks Jailton Almeida “I'm gonna go Jailton Almeida to round one submission.”
MM MMAInstigator picks Jailton Almeida “think Jailton Almeida can have that same the the judges nod.”
DS Danny Segura picks Jailton Almeida VALUE “we're going to go with Jailton Almeida to win. Just to win, no specific result. And that is at a minus 150.” $1.67
UF UFCharlesDoBronx picks Jailton Almeida “So give me Jailton Almeida”
DG Diary of a Pro Gambler picks Rizvan Kuniev VALUE “we've got two bets on underdogs this week, Rizvan Kuniev and the reasons why I like Rizvan Kuniev so much in because if we take a look at Rizvan Kuniev's good quality statistical data for Rizvan Kuniev, Rizvan Kuniev has 90% takedown defense.”
JC Jaiden Cable picks Jailton Almeida “So I I have Jailton Almeida.”
MM MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Rizvan Kuniev “a win for Rizvan Kuniev in my book.”
BM Bedtime MMA picks Jailton Almeida “pick Jailton Almeida to win this fight. I'm Jailton Almeida will bounce back in this a Jailton Almeida submission in round one. Maybe round two.”
MM Mayor MMA picks Rizvan Kuniev “I'm going to pick Rizvan Kuniev.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Almeida22-4
L Kuniev Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Volkov Decision · R3 Oct '25
W Spivac KO/TKO · R1 Jan '25
W Romanov Submission · R1 Jun '24
L Blaydes KO/TKO · R2 Mar '24
Kuniev12-3-1
W Almeida Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Blaydes Decision · R3 Jun '25