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UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
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JM CP Maddalena vs PratesMain Card · Welterweight BD QS Dariush vs SalkilldMain Card · Lightweight TE SE Elliott vs ErcegMain Card · Flyweight SG BP Gaziev vs PeričićMain Card · Heavyweight TT LS Tuivasa vs SutherlandMain Card · Heavyweight CR RB Rowston vs BryczekPreliminary Card · Middleweight JT KC Tafa vs ChristianPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight JM GM Malkoun vs MeerschaertPreliminary Card · Catchweight CT VM Thicknesse vs MoralesPreliminary Card · Bantamweight BJ WS Johnston vs SchultzPreliminary Card · Middleweight JM TG Micallef vs GorimboPreliminary Card · Welterweight DF KS Fan vs SteelePreliminary Card · Lightweight MR OS Rahiki vs SchmidMain Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Tuivasa over Sutherland · Heavyweight Our fair value$1.40 LeoVegas (SE) pays above fair $1.51
Where to back Tuivasa best price · region · EV vs fair $1.40
US FanDuel $1.47 +5%
UK Virgin Bet $1.45 +4%
EU LeoVegas (SE) $1.51 +8%
AU Unibet $1.45 +4%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.49
Consensus150 picks · conf 99/99
Tuivasa 122
28 Sutherland
TBKSLR pick Tuivasa
How it endsmethod calls · Tuivasa · crowd line
KO/TKO 17 $1.57
Submission 1 $26.63
Decision 1 $26.63
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Tuivasa 15-9 VS 10-5 Sutherland
6'2" height 6'3"
265 lb weight 264 lb
75" reach 76"
33 age 32
Southpaw stance Orthodox
3.8 strikes landed / min 3.2
46% striking accuracy 53%
5.2 strikes absorbed / min 3.7
44% striking defence 49%
0.0 takedowns / 15 min 0.8
0% takedown accuracy 33%
57% takedown defence 82%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 1.9
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market71% vs 66%
Consensus122 of 150 analysts
Sharpest angleTuivasa by KO/TKO — 17 of 19 method calls
Recommendation Back Tuivasa @ $1.51 · fair $1.40 +8% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Tai Tuivasa “actually going thumbs up for this one because I think Tai Tuivasa is going to win”
GI GiulianoArgenti picks Louie Sutherland “I I I think Louie Sutherland is [ __ ] because Louie Sutherland's just not going to be know you're talking about Louie Sutherland taken it”
HN Hidden Source News picks Tai Tuivasa “will pick Tai Tuivasa to win”
TP The MMA War Room Podcast picks Tai Tuivasa “I'm gonna say Tai Tuivasa by KO.”
TH ThatBettingDude picks Louie Sutherland “I'm going Louie Sutherland coming off a KO loss Louie Sutherland putting him out”
CO CombatCoreMMA picks Tai Tuivasa “I think Tai Tuivasa Vasa has got this one.”
22 222MMA picks Louie Sutherland “Honestly, going Louie Sutherland to win this fight by TKO.”
BP Beats Rhymes & Parlays picks Tai Tuivasa “But my pick is going to be uh Tai Tuivasa.”
FM FATALITY MMA picks Tai Tuivasa “I'm taking Tai Tuivasa. So, I mean, good lord. I'm taking Tai Tuivasa to win a fight in 2026... Yeah, I don't trust Louie Sutherland”
IZ Izzysdegenmind picks Tai Tuivasa “Tai Tuivasa best price minus 215. ... Tai Tuivasa wins this fight. ... Give me Tai Tuivasa to Tai Tuivasa.” $1.47
DC Dougies Corner picks Louie Sutherland “oh boy did Louie Sutherland you. Louie Sutherland that Louie Sutherland does throw before. Uh Louie Sutherland does come in with”
AC Anything Combat picks Tai Tuivasa “um I'm picking Tai Tuivasa by knockout.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Tuivasa15-9
L Sutherland Decision · R3 May '26
L Teixeira Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Rozenstruik Decision · R3 Aug '24
L Tybura Submission · R1 Mar '24
L Volkov Submission · R2 Sep '23
Sutherland10-5
W Tuivasa Decision · R3 May '26
L Peričić KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
L Walker Submission · R1 Oct '25