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UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
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JM CP Maddalena vs PratesMain Card · Welterweight BD QS Dariush vs SalkilldMain Card · Lightweight TE SE Elliott vs ErcegMain Card · Flyweight SG BP Gaziev vs PeričićMain Card · Heavyweight TT LS Tuivasa vs SutherlandMain Card · Heavyweight CR RB Rowston vs BryczekPreliminary Card · Middleweight JT KC Tafa vs ChristianPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight JM GM Malkoun vs MeerschaertPreliminary Card · Catchweight CT VM Thicknesse vs MoralesPreliminary Card · Bantamweight BJ WS Johnston vs SchultzPreliminary Card · Middleweight JM TG Micallef vs GorimboPreliminary Card · Welterweight DF KS Fan vs SteelePreliminary Card · Lightweight MR OS Rahiki vs SchmidMain Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Thicknesse over Morales · Bantamweight Our fair value$1.62 Unibet (SE) pays above fair $1.76
Where to back Thicknesse best price · region · EV vs fair $1.62
US BetUS $1.71 +6%
UK Paddy Power $1.73 +7%
EU Unibet (SE) $1.76 +9%
AU PointsBet (AU) $1.70 +5%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.79
Consensus147 picks · conf 99/99
Thicknesse 108
39 Morales
BMKMSR pick Thicknesse
How it endsmethod calls · Thicknesse · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $58.19
Submission 2 $29.09
Decision 33 $1.76
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Thicknesse 8-1 VS 16-10 Morales
5'7" height 5'7"
135 lb weight 136 lb
69" reach 70"
27 age 35
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.5 strikes landed / min 4.0
50% striking accuracy 36%
3.7 strikes absorbed / min 4.5
69% striking defence 53%
0.7 takedowns / 15 min 0.4
25% takedown accuracy 30%
76% takedown defence 65%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market62% vs 57%
Consensus108 of 147 analysts
Sharpest angleThicknesse by Decision — 33 of 36 method calls
Recommendation Back Thicknesse @ $1.76 · fair $1.62 +9% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Vince Morales “Oh, I like my guy Vince Morales.”
GI GiulianoArgenti picks Colby Thicknesse “easy layup for uh, Colby Thicknesse Colby Thicknesse... easy dub for Colby Thicknesse... Colby Thicknesse gets a sub”
TP The MMA War Room Podcast picks Vince Morales “I'm going to take Vince Morales”
TP The MMA War Room Podcast picks Colby Thicknesse “I think Colby Thicknesse is ... little more Colby Thicknesse here.”
PP Pure Picks picks Vince Morales VALUE “give me Vince Morales as my underdog on me, Vince Morales. That is your best”
ZE ZekeYaps picks Colby Thicknesse “I got Colby Thicknesse by decision.”
22 222MMA picks Colby Thicknesse “I don't see this fight going any other way. Colby Thicknesse. see it going any other way, boys. That's it. Colby Thicknesse.”
BP Beats Rhymes & Parlays picks Colby Thicknesse “I had Colby Thicknesse.” $1.69
YO YoungPastey picks Colby Thicknesse “We're back in and taking Colby Thicknesse minus 130, 1.3 units.” $1.77
IZ Izzysdegenmind picks Colby Thicknesse “I think Colby Thicknesse is able right now... I think Colby Thicknesse outpoints Vince Morales.” $1.72
DR DRYWALL picks Colby Thicknesse “Give me Colby Thicknesse Colby Thicknesse minus 142.” $1.70
SN SniperWins picks Colby Thicknesse “So, we probably going to side with Colby Thicknesse Colby Thicknesse here. Not very confident in yeah, I got to go Colby Thicknesse here... I like Colby Thicknesse”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Thicknesse8-1
W Morales Decision · R3 May '26
W Musasa Decision · R3 Sep '25
L Topuria Decision · R3 Feb '25
Morales16-10
L Thicknesse Decision · R3 May '26
L Jr. Decision · R3 Mar '25
L Smith Decision · R3 Feb '25
L Lapilus Decision · R3 Sep '24
L Johns Decision · R3 Nov '22