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UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
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JM CP Maddalena vs PratesMain Card · Welterweight BD QS Dariush vs SalkilldMain Card · Lightweight TE SE Elliott vs ErcegMain Card · Flyweight SG BP Gaziev vs PeričićMain Card · Heavyweight TT LS Tuivasa vs SutherlandMain Card · Heavyweight CR RB Rowston vs BryczekPreliminary Card · Middleweight JT KC Tafa vs ChristianPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight JM GM Malkoun vs MeerschaertPreliminary Card · Catchweight CT VM Thicknesse vs MoralesPreliminary Card · Bantamweight BJ WS Johnston vs SchultzPreliminary Card · Middleweight JM TG Micallef vs GorimboPreliminary Card · Welterweight DF KS Fan vs SteelePreliminary Card · Lightweight MR OS Rahiki vs SchmidMain Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Micallef over Gorimbo · Welterweight Our fair value$1.33 FanDuel pays above fair $1.47
Where to back Micallef best price · region · EV vs fair $1.33
US FanDuel $1.47 +10%
UK Virgin Bet $1.46 +10%
EU Unibet (NL) $1.45 +9%
AU Unibet $1.46 +10%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.47
Consensus139 picks · conf 99/99
Micallef 127
12 Gorimbo
PMSLRM pick Micallef
How it endsmethod calls · Micallef · crowd line
KO/TKO 3 $16.85
Submission 26 $1.94
Decision 9 $5.62
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Micallef 9-1 VS 14-6 Gorimbo
6'0" height 6'1"
170 lb weight 171 lb
77" reach 77"
27 age 35
Southpaw stance Orthodox
3.3 strikes landed / min 3.1
56% striking accuracy 61%
4.7 strikes absorbed / min 1.1
63% striking defence 56%
2.1 takedowns / 15 min 4.9
57% takedown accuracy 65%
61% takedown defence 82%
0.8 submissions / 15 min 0.6
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market75% vs 68%
Consensus127 of 139 analysts
Sharpest angleMicallef by Submission — 26 of 38 method calls
Recommendation Back Micallef @ $1.47 · fair $1.33 +10% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TP The MMA War Room Podcast picks Jonathan Micallef “Taking Jonathan Micallef money line.”
TH ThatBettingDude picks Jonathan Micallef “I see Jonathan Micallef being victory. Give me Jonathan Micallef to win the Themba Gorimbo.”
22 222MMA picks Jonathan Micallef “I'm going Jonathan Micallef via submission, round two.”
FM FATALITY MMA picks Jonathan Micallef “to take Jonathan Micallef Jonathan Micallef here.”
IZ Izzysdegenmind picks Jonathan Micallef “I think Jonathan Micallef wins like Jonathan Micallef is all that. ... Give me Jonathan Micallef to win this fight pretty easily.” $1.69
SN SniperWins picks Jonathan Micallef “I'm going to pick Jonathan Micallef but think Jonathan Micallef is going to win.”
IN InsomniaMMA picks Jonathan Micallef “Jonathan Micallef getting this one done by decision”
TI TITLE_TALKMMA picks Jonathan Micallef “Give me Jonathan Micallef.”
7L 7LukeMMA picks Jonathan Micallef “I'm gonna go with Jonathan Micallef here.”
YK Yetersiz Bakiye Kulübü picks Jonathan Micallef “I think Jonathan Micallef will win this match.”
JM James Keller MMA picks Jonathan Micallef “I'm taking Jonathan Micallef by round two um TKO”
PI PickemMMA picks Jonathan Micallef VALUE “Give me Jonathan Micallef to win. I think he wins.” $1.45
Recent form last five, most recent first
Micallef9-1
W Gorimbo Decision · R3 May '26
W Elliott Submission · R2 Feb '26
W Jousset Decision · R3 Feb '25
Gorimbo14-6
L Micallef Decision · R3 May '26
L Wells Decision · R3 Nov '25
L Luque Submission · R1 Dec '24
W Price Decision · R3 Oct '24
W Brahimaj Decision · R3 May '24