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UFC Freedom 250
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IT JG Topuria vs GaethjeFight Card · Lightweight AP CG Pereira vs GaneFight Card · Heavyweight SO AZ O'Malley vs ZahabiFight Card · Bantamweight JH DL Hokit vs LewisFight Card · Heavyweight MR MC Ruffy vs ChandlerFight Card · Lightweight BN KD Nickal vs DaukausFight Card · Middleweight DL SG Lopes vs GarciaFight Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Pereira over Gane · Heavyweight Our fair value$1.68 Pinnacle pays above fair $1.96
Where to back Pereira best price · region · EV vs fair $1.68
US BetOnline.ag $1.94 +15%
UK LeoVegas $1.91 +13%
EU Pinnacle $1.96 +16%
AU Bet Right $1.92 +14%
Consensus100 picks · conf 85/99
Pereira 78
22 Gane
TUFTHB pick Pereira
How it endsmethod calls · Pereira · crowd line
KO/TKO 22 $1.91
Submission 1 $42.10
Decision 2 $21.05
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Pereira 13-3 VS 13-2 Gane
6'4" height 6'4"
251 lb weight 248 lb
79" reach 81"
38 age 36
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.5 strikes landed / min 5.5
54% striking accuracy 60%
3.8 strikes absorbed / min 2.2
61% striking defence 63%
0.1 takedowns / 15 min 0.6
0% takedown accuracy 21%
92% takedown defence 50%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.5
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market59% vs 51%
Consensus78 of 100 analysts
Sharpest anglePereira by KO/TKO — 22 of 25 method calls
Recommendation Back Pereira @ $1.96 · fair $1.68 +16% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MM MMA Mikey picks Alex Pereira “I see him winning by TKO.” $2.02
FI FightBookMMA picks Alex Pereira “I'm gonna pick him knockout round three.”
HN Hidden Source News picks Ciryl Gane “my pick will be Ciryl Gane Ciryl Gane to take the win.”
MM Minted MMA picks Ciryl Gane “I'm gonna go with a KO for Ciryl Gane NOT_IN_ROSTER_34. He's gonna hit Alex Pereira hard.”
UF UFCharlesDoBronx picks Alex Pereira “give me Alex Pereira to win this by knockout.”
FL Flips.Corner picks Alex Pereira “give me Alex Pereira winning this fight.”
MW MMA Fight Picks - Aaron Weinbaum picks Ciryl Gane “Everyone seems to be on the Al P trade uh train here, but going Ciryl Gane. Ciryl Gane.”
KU Kunath picks Ciryl Gane “Ciryl Gane in the com. I think he's just more acclimated to fighting a heavyweight.”
T™ TheWagerZone ™ picks Ciryl Gane “I do believe this fight goes to decision and I think Ciryl Gane puts it on him.”
SS Sports Gambling Podcast - SGPN picks Alex Pereira “I like the Alex Pereira.” $1.88
HL Heat Seekr Sports | NFL DFS PICKS, ADVICE, LINEUPS picks Alex Pereira “Sarah Gon loses this. Alex Prior wins.”
SP SportsLine picks Alex Pereira “Also, you got to go Alex Pereira here. Straight up money line minus 115”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Pereira13-3
L Gane KO/TKO · R2 Jun '26
W Ankalaev KO/TKO · R1 Oct '25
L Ankalaev Decision · R5 Mar '25
W Jr. KO/TKO · R4 Oct '24
W Procházka KO/TKO · R2 Jun '24
Gane13-2
W Pereira KO/TKO · R2 Jun '26
W Volkov Decision · R3 Dec '24
W Spivac KO/TKO · R2 Sep '23
L Jones Submission · R1 Mar '23
W Tuivasa KO/TKO · R3 Sep '22