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UFC Freedom 250
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BEST PRICE We back Ruffy over Chandler · Lightweight Our fair value$1.15 Paddy Power pays above fair $1.20
Where to back Ruffy best price · region · EV vs fair $1.15
US FanDuel $1.20 +4%
UK Paddy Power $1.20 +4%
EU Coolbet $1.19 +3%
AU PointsBet (AU) $1.18 +2%
Consensus96 picks · conf 83/99
Ruffy 90
6 Chandler
HTUMMF pick Ruffy
How it endsmethod calls · Ruffy · crowd line
KO/TKO 36 $1.22
Decision 2 $21.90
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Ruffy 13-2 VS 23-10 Chandler
5'11" height 5'8"
155 lb weight 156 lb
75" reach 72"
30 age 40
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.5 strikes landed / min 4.5
49% striking accuracy 50%
2.4 strikes absorbed / min 4.3
49% striking defence 43%
0.5 takedowns / 15 min 1.6
30% takedown accuracy 37%
69% takedown defence 63%
0.7 submissions / 15 min 0.6
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market87% vs 83%
Consensus90 of 96 analysts
Sharpest angleRuffy by KO/TKO — 36 of 38 method calls
Recommendation Back Ruffy @ $1.20 · fair $1.15 +4% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MM MMA Mikey picks Maurício Ruffy “I'm going to pick Maurício Ruffy, Mauricio Maurício Ruffy to win this fight against Michael Michael Chandler.” $1.19
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Maurício Ruffy “I took the Maurício Ruffy to win by knockout in the first or second round at minus 125” $1.80
FI FightBookMMA picks Maurício Ruffy “I say Rofy is going to bring it and probably finish Michael Chandler in round three and I think he might do it by knockout or TKO but it's going happen.”
HN Hidden Source News picks Maurício Ruffy “My pick will be Maurício Ruffy to get the win.”
MM Minted MMA picks Maurício Ruffy “Maria Sale is just going to go ham on Michael Chandler.”
MM Mind Of Moseefus picks Maurício Ruffy “I see Maurício Ruffy winning by decision, but I see it being a war.”
UF UFCharlesDoBronx picks Maurício Ruffy “Give me him by their first or second round knockout.”
FL Flips.Corner picks Maurício Ruffy “I think I'm sadly going to have to take Maurício Ruffy on this fight.”
KU Kunath picks Maurício Ruffy “Maurício Ruffy Maurício Ruffy is going to beat Michael Chandler.”
T™ TheWagerZone ™ picks Maurício Ruffy “I think Maurício Ruffy knocks out Michael Chandler.”
SS Sports Gambling Podcast - SGPN picks Maurício Ruffy “I think Maurício Ruffy knocks his head off.”
RR Ry Rinehart picks Maurício Ruffy “Round one or two. The finish shakes the ground. Maurício Ruffy KO or TKO. That's what I found.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Ruffy13-2
W Chandler KO/TKO · R1 Jun '26
W Fiziev KO/TKO · R2 Feb '26
L Denis Submission · R2 Sep '25
W Green KO/TKO · R1 Mar '25
W Llontop Decision · R3 Nov '24
Chandler23-10
L Ruffy KO/TKO · R1 Jun '26
L Pimblett KO/TKO · R3 Apr '25
L Oliveira Decision · R5 Nov '24
L Poirier Submission · R3 Nov '22
W Ferguson KO/TKO · R2 May '22