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UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili
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MD SO Dvalishvili vs O'MalleyMain Card · Bantamweight VS AG Shevchenko vs GrassoMain Card · Women'S Flyweight DL BO Lopes vs OrtegaMain Card · Featherweight ER DZ Ribovics vs ZellhuberMain Card · Lightweight RR OO Rodríguez vs OsbourneMain Card · Flyweight ND IA Dumont vs AldanaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight IB MT Bahamondes vs TorresPreliminary Card · Lightweight KS YJ Souza vs JaureguiPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight JV ÉC Van vs CháirezPreliminary Card · Flyweight RJ AQ Jr. vs QilengEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE We back Grasso over Shevchenko · Women'S Flyweight Our fair value$1.74 Pinnacle pays above fair $1.83
Where to back Grasso best price · region · EV vs fair $1.74
US Bovada $1.83 +5%
UK Unibet (UK) $1.73 -1%
EU Pinnacle $1.83 +5%
AU PlayUp $1.80 +3%
Consensus36 picks · conf 58/99
Shevchenko 13
23 Grasso
MDKCFM pick Shevchenko
How it endsmethod calls · Grasso · crowd line
Submission 1 $29.59
Decision 16 $1.85
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Shevchenko 24-4-1 VS 16-5-1 Grasso
5'5" height 5'5"
124 lb weight 126 lb
67" reach 66"
38 age 32
Southpaw stance Orthodox
3.2 strikes landed / min 4.2
52% striking accuracy 41%
2.0 strikes absorbed / min 3.7
64% striking defence 58%
2.7 takedowns / 15 min 0.4
64% takedown accuracy 40%
71% takedown defence 54%
0.3 submissions / 15 min 0.7
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market57% vs 55%
Consensus23 of 36 analysts
Sharpest angleGrasso by Decision — 16 of 17 method calls
Recommendation Back Grasso @ $1.83 · fair $1.74 +5% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Valentina Shevchenko “Valentina Shevchenko loose again to Alexa really sad if Valentina Shevchenko could was were rooting so hard for Alexa Grasso and judge Alexa Grasso would have lost the title”
TD The Rambling Dad picks Valentina Shevchenko “I'm going with Valentina Shevchenko Valentina Shevchenko I'm going with Valentina Shevchenko Valentina Shevchenko as well I'm going to go with Valentina Shevchenko”
TM The MMA-Holes picks Valentina Shevchenko “Valentina Shevchenko by decision just do it plus doable I'm picking Valentina Shevchenko”
IL IBG Live picks Alexa Grasso “I got Alexa Grasso by uh by unanimous”
KU Kunath picks Valentina Shevchenko VALUE “I think Alexa Gro wins EVENT_DETAILS”
SP SportsLine picks Alexa Grasso “I'm going with Alexa Grasso guys I think that she's going to keep the flyweight title”
SP SportsLine picks Valentina Shevchenko “I'm going with Gro as Valentina Shevchenko”
WP We Want Picks picks Alexa Grasso VALUE “I think Alexa Gro wins this fight”
PR Premium-Picks picks Alexa Grasso “I'm on Alexa Grasso Alexa Grasso Grasso”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Alexa Grasso “and still for me that's the pick”
MS MM Sports picks Valentina Shevchenko “I do think Valentina Shevchenko actually is going to clear that mental block and do think she's going to win this time”
MS MM Sports picks Alexa Grasso “I'm going to pick Alexa Grasso to win”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Shevchenko24-4-1
W Weili Decision · R5 Nov '25
W Fiorot Decision · R5 May '25
W Grasso Decision · R5 Sep '24
L Grasso Submission · R4 Mar '23
W Santos Decision · R5 Jun '22
Grasso16-5-1
W Barber KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
L Silva Decision · R3 May '25
L Shevchenko Decision · R5 Sep '24
W Shevchenko Submission · R4 Mar '23
W Araújo Decision · R5 Oct '22