Choose a fight to analyse
MD
SO
Dvalishvili vs O'MalleyMain Card · Bantamweight
VS
AG
Shevchenko vs GrassoMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
DL
BO
Lopes vs OrtegaMain Card · Featherweight
ER
DZ
Ribovics vs ZellhuberMain Card · Lightweight
RR
OO
Rodríguez vs OsbourneMain Card · Flyweight
ND
IA
Dumont vs AldanaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
IB
MT
Bahamondes vs TorresPreliminary Card · Lightweight
KS
YJ
Souza vs JaureguiPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
JV
ÉC
Van vs CháirezPreliminary Card · Flyweight
RJ
AQ
Jr. vs QilengEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
SO
Dvalishvili vs O'MalleyMain Card · Bantamweight
VS
AG
Shevchenko vs GrassoMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
DL
BO
Lopes vs OrtegaMain Card · Featherweight
ER
DZ
Ribovics vs ZellhuberMain Card · Lightweight
RR
OO
Rodríguez vs OsbourneMain Card · Flyweight
ND
IA
Dumont vs AldanaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
IB
MT
Bahamondes vs TorresPreliminary Card · Lightweight
KS
YJ
Souza vs JaureguiPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
JV
ÉC
Van vs CháirezPreliminary Card · Flyweight
RJ
AQ
Jr. vs QilengEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Lopes
over Ortega · Featherweight
Our fair value$1.47
LowVig.ag
pays above fair
$1.58
Best prices · Lopes
LowVig.ag · US
$1.58
Paddy Power · UK
$1.53
Coolbet · EU
$1.56
Ladbrokes AU · AU
$1.53
Where to back Lopes
best price · region · EV vs fair $1.47
US
LOW
LowVig.ag
$1.58
+8%
UK
Paddy Power
$1.53
+4%
Paddy Power
$1.53
+4%
EU
Coolbet
$1.56
+6%
Coolbet
$1.56
+6%
AU
Ladbrokes AU
$1.53
+4%
Ladbrokes AU
$1.53
+4%
How it endsmethod calls · Lopes · crowd line
KO/TKO
9
$2.44
Decision
5
$4.40
None
1
$21.98
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Lopes 27-8
VS
16-5 Ortega
5'11"
height
5'8"
146 lb
weight
153 lb
72"
reach
69"
31
age
35
Orthodox
stance
Switch
3.5
strikes landed / min
5.7
58%
striking accuracy
40%
2.2
strikes absorbed / min
4.3
56%
striking defence
49%
1.0
takedowns / 15 min
0.9
39%
takedown accuracy
44%
52%
takedown defence
58%
1.2
submissions / 15 min
1.4
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market68% vs 63%
Consensus25 of 33 analysts
Sharpest angleLopes by KO/TKO — 9 of 15 method calls
Recommendation
Back Lopes @ $1.58 · fair $1.47
+8% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
CR
Capitán Rafucho picks Diego Lopes
“give me Diego Lopes as the next fight Brian Ortega versus Diego”
Capitán Rafucho picks Diego Lopes
“give me Diego Lopes as the next fight Brian Ortega versus Diego”
TD
The Rambling Dad picks Diego Lopes
“Diego Lopes is my guy um I'm going with Diego Lopes um on the Diego Lopes has been in the game but Diego Lopes is striking looks like it's brother Diego Lopes 100% all you're G to sorry to do this I got I got Diego Lopes Diego Lopes I can't Diego Lopes is not gonna hold Max Holloway Diego Lopes play from a Brazilian Hood he's Brian Ortega fighting out the us and we got with Brian Ortega at 6 Brian Ortega here I just think he's see that Brian Ortega can get this done so yeah I'm going to go with Brian Ortega on this one Brian Ortega as he was a jiujitsu coach he's a better version of um Brian Ortega Brian Ortega has been in the game longer than way way way miles ahead of Brian Ortega listen to him listen I thought Brian Ortega was and Brian Ortega the uh I'm sorry fight anyhow Brian Ortega gets it done tomorrow I if Brian Ortega loses switch your phone off oh saying if Brian Ortega loses I'm ending the stream”
The Rambling Dad picks Diego Lopes
“Diego Lopes is my guy um I'm going with Diego Lopes um on the Diego Lopes has been in the game but Diego Lopes is striking looks like it's brother Diego Lopes 100% all you're G to sorry to do this I got I got Diego Lopes Diego Lopes I can't Diego Lopes is not gonna hold Max Holloway Diego Lopes play from a Brazilian Hood he's Brian Ortega fighting out the us and we got with Brian Ortega at 6 Brian Ortega here I just think he's see that Brian Ortega can get this done so yeah I'm going to go with Brian Ortega on this one Brian Ortega as he was a jiujitsu coach he's a better version of um Brian Ortega Brian Ortega has been in the game longer than way way way miles ahead of Brian Ortega listen to him listen I thought Brian Ortega was and Brian Ortega the uh I'm sorry fight anyhow Brian Ortega gets it done tomorrow I if Brian Ortega loses switch your phone off oh saying if Brian Ortega loses I'm ending the stream”
EM
Elijah House MMA picks Diego Lopes
“I'm going with Diego Lopes I got him with a first round knockout TKO”
Elijah House MMA picks Diego Lopes
“I'm going with Diego Lopes I got him with a first round knockout TKO”
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Diego Lopes
“Diego Lopes has this in the TKO I'm gonna go with Diego Lopes here”
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Diego Lopes
“Diego Lopes has this in the TKO I'm gonna go with Diego Lopes here”
CC
Combat Sports Central picks Diego Lopes
“Diego Lopes straight up”
Combat Sports Central picks Diego Lopes
“Diego Lopes straight up”
DR
DRYWALL picks Diego Lopes VALUE
“Diego Lopes's going to win the fight... lay that minus 192 take your money... Diego Lopes is winning the fight”
$1.52
DRYWALL picks Diego Lopes VALUE
“Diego Lopes's going to win the fight... lay that minus 192 take your money... Diego Lopes is winning the fight”
$1.52
IL
IBG Live picks Diego Lopes
“I got Diego Lopes by unanimous decision”
IBG Live picks Diego Lopes
“I got Diego Lopes by unanimous decision”
KU
Kunath picks Brian Ortega VALUE
“I think you get really good leverage playing the other side if you wanted Brian Ortega”
Kunath picks Brian Ortega VALUE
“I think you get really good leverage playing the other side if you wanted Brian Ortega”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Diego Lopes VALUE
“this is going to be a banger fight Diego Lopes Brian Brian Ortega is gonna be legendary”
MMA EXPERTS picks Diego Lopes VALUE
“this is going to be a banger fight Diego Lopes Brian Brian Ortega is gonna be legendary”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Brian Ortega VALUE
“I think reix is live to win”
MMA EXPERTS picks Brian Ortega VALUE
“I think reix is live to win”
DS
Dynes Sports picks Diego Lopes
“I'm on the Diego Lopes side yeah I'm really Diego Lopes to find that first round KO I do bet in earlier on Diego Lopes ... I'll take Diego Lopes to win um and if imagine Diego Lopes is winning you get a nice news um I'm gonna still be on the Diego Lopes Diego Lopes who we both I mean you're featherweight between Brian Ortega and 185 to Brian Ortega who could be had at plus fight after Brian Ortega withdrew from both Brian Ortega was only cutting to 155 lbs um know I I worry about backing Brian Ortega here but again Brian Ortega at this stage of his Brian Ortega we broke this fight down already Brian Ortega higher than NOT_IN_ROSTER_1 if he's able to about Brian Ortega making could play into Brian Ortega's favor also Brian Ortega in media very clear that he's Brian Ortega at good plus money I don't think Brian Ortega's last time out against the iire Brian Ortega survives after the first round I really big plus money spot on Brian Ortega you weigh-ins but if Brian Ortega looks fine I”
Dynes Sports picks Diego Lopes
“I'm on the Diego Lopes side yeah I'm really Diego Lopes to find that first round KO I do bet in earlier on Diego Lopes ... I'll take Diego Lopes to win um and if imagine Diego Lopes is winning you get a nice news um I'm gonna still be on the Diego Lopes Diego Lopes who we both I mean you're featherweight between Brian Ortega and 185 to Brian Ortega who could be had at plus fight after Brian Ortega withdrew from both Brian Ortega was only cutting to 155 lbs um know I I worry about backing Brian Ortega here but again Brian Ortega at this stage of his Brian Ortega we broke this fight down already Brian Ortega higher than NOT_IN_ROSTER_1 if he's able to about Brian Ortega making could play into Brian Ortega's favor also Brian Ortega in media very clear that he's Brian Ortega at good plus money I don't think Brian Ortega's last time out against the iire Brian Ortega survives after the first round I really big plus money spot on Brian Ortega you weigh-ins but if Brian Ortega looks fine I”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Lopes27-8
W
Garcia
Jun '26
L
Volkanovski
Feb '26
W
Silva
Sep '25
L
Volkanovski
Apr '25
W
Ortega
Sep '24
Ortega16-5
L
Sterling
Aug '25
L
Lopes
Sep '24
W
Rodríguez
Feb '24
L
Rodríguez
Jul '22
L
Volkanovski
Sep '21